Irish politics discussion thread

theres a million holes in all of the above, im typing on a phone and things is moving very fast so take with pinches of salt and consider it a flavour analysis and not a reliable primer

Probably Modernist architecture xp

Greens now on 11!

Also 9 seats left to go and SF still in the lead!

but on the seismic change, perhaps if i put it in these terms: nb the substitutions aint perfect im trying to impress the effect not draw parallels

2012 crash. republicans lose in a landslide. hilarys dems get in.

2016: didnt work. hilarys dems get in again. bernie sanders runs as a separate party leader and polls enough that the republicans have to support the dems on programme for govt votes, because for once the loss in dem votes did not lead to a gop recovery

2020. bernie sanders party is the biggest of the now three significant parties in america, despite not running in all the states due to a clerical error. figures show that without this error he would dominate whatever ridiculous setup ye have that controls the money and the power. he might agree to a programme of govt with hilarys dems for stabilitys stake, but he wants to see if he can form one with the communist party of america firstx just for the lols.

in this scenario, bernie sanders party were killing nypd in the 90s and defend it today.

maybe that clarifies the kind of shift we're talking, idk

i gotta go eat

thrilled about the greens, and happy that soc dem and labour are showing a centre-left alternative maybe

There's a SD to come (he must be fairly edging it by now, he's 12 votes short) in Wicklow, and an Independent just went through in Sligo-Leitrim.

And from the other 7, if there's one each from Sligo-Leitrim and one each from Cavan-Monaghan, and if the Independent that's out in Wicklow doesn't give the Green more than 200 votes of a leg-up...

We'll have a three way tie for 37.

I don't actually think it'll work, specifically Cavan-Monaghan have three FF and one FG, and anyway I'd rather we get the 12th Green in Wicklow (Dublin South West gave up an 11th by the way, Labour->Green transfer of 2745 out of 5803)

oops xp to gyac!

best electoral system in the world, obv

Literally cannot believe this result.

Also how do you people manage to post like this at work? I spend my whole day in an abject panic about getting everything done!

I'm particularly bad at my job though...

Have enjoyed reading UK paper hot takes completely missing the fucking point

I mean, some of them would find it professionally unwise to admit that the left can be popular...

......fuckin superintendent wouldnt ask u that, plax

Also how do you people manage to post like this at work? I spend my whole day in an abject panic about getting everything done!

he must be fairly edging it by now

How is everyone in Wicklow not dead by now, how how howwwwww

factor in the commute

theyll be dead in another 40 mins

According to political pollster, Sean Donnelly, the shortest ever sitting TD was Sinn Féin TD Pierce McCann. He was a TD for Tipperary East from 21 January 1919 to 6 March 1919 - a total of 44 days. He never sat in Dáil Éireann as he was in jail and died aged 36 in prison from the flu.

Wicklow's going to a 15th count, but this one should be quicker - just the surplus from the SD candidate going in. The Green got boosted back to 5th, so it's just not losing the lead of 400 votes over the lesser FG.

So is it all handcounts for every iteration

Or hand-sorts more to the point

Yes

SD winner is Greystones, as are Donnelly and Harris. Green candidate is from Bray. Other FGer is from down-county. But at this stage in proceedings who knows.

There's probably some electoral strategy in play here but why didn't SF field more candidates than they did?

they thought they were defending seats, since this is unprecedented they don't have the backing to finance all the campaigns they want to just on the off-chance

their last showing (euro/locals) wasnt great, nobody had a notion this was coming.

lol @ that pallid tory boy on the bbc with middle class geordie accent saying the housing crisis in ireland is all because of rent controls, that'll be news to millions

jesus

anyroad, we have pretty much results, last two seats look FF bound

FF 38
SF 37
FG 35
IND 19
GP 12
LAB 6
SD 6
PBP 5
AON 1
OTH 1

those of you still getting used to the system will note that transfers are pretty influential, looking at that

FF as a party will go with SF but they might well lose TDs

Greens and SF "ought" to be included in any new govt, if that matters, but would the Greens be prone to flake a bit at compromise?

FF, minus ten odd meatloafs, plus SF, plus Greens, still calls for another 7 or 8 that might be got from INDS?

Better to go for LAB/SD than that latter?

questions questions questions

Green got the last seat in Wicklow, good stuff.

How do SF feel about the Trots

Have we any recounts yet? Feels unusual to wrap everything up in two days.

SF's former acquaintances commonly derided as Trots by the theoretically-orthodox Official IRA iirc

FF will win the last two I think but they’ll just be one seat ahead of SF. FG are two behind. 12 for the greens is incredible

theres a lot of good stuff happening

lets hope the govt formed wont stymie all enthusiasm

Slight double take in seeing my brother announced as a Fianna Fail TD for Wicklow. I must tell him in the morning

twas a fuckin major shock to the sd voters last time around when he announced it himself after a few months

ok i think this is a good space and time to check something

having reaffirmed that our process is the best in the world, and the thread having by and large been a real cracker, and lookit still having a good deal of craic to go, and possibly even a government out of it

can we think about how we can assist and advise our cousins

or does our mishmash of a system allow us buffers that let things breathe that may not be the case in the polthreads of less civilised countries

even fred can behave himself in here, like. we def have something here.

Well here’s the thing, until, minimally, the Democratic presidential nomination process becomes a national primary w ranked choice voting the system guarantees constant screaming, hectoring, Morbs being Morbs, shakes being shakes, etc.

ok good, good

how do we get from *here*, ok, to *there*, hmm?

It’s one of those things I think where the ppl benefitting from the system in place are the ones wielding the power required to change it and so I really don’t know.

ok.

can you leave it with me, we'll get some very good people on it first thing.

Good breakdown of those SF surpluses and the boost to left candidates.

Yeah, that's good - my ascendancy friend is wary of them, and not without some justification, but they will need to keep up the leftism for a while in this three party state holy shit.

2020. bernie sanders party is the biggest of the now three significant parties in america, despite not running in all the states due to a clerical error. figures show that without this error he would dominate whatever ridiculous setup ye have that controls the money and the power. he might agree to a programme of govt with hilarys dems for stabilitys stake, but he wants to see if he can form one with the communist party of america firstx just for the lols.

in this scenario, bernie sanders party were killing nypd in the 90s and defend it today.

maybe that clarifies the kind of shift we're talking, idk

― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac)

checked into this thread to see how 2020 ilx could get 420 new answers in an irish politics thread, was not disappointed

deems you're such a fascinating person, the soul of ilx in so many ways and in other ways so utterly exceptional and sui generis, i know nothing at all about irish politics (they had some sort of election i gather?) but i love reading how you view american politics

if we accept a three-party system, the issue with hillary's party - which is a party i used to belong to - is that they have in the end no policy and no principles other than compromise, which happens to be a principle that both bernie's party and trump's party both categorically reject - bernie stands for principle for its own sake, and trump stands for power for its own sake, with all other considerations being secondary.

there's my crackpot view of american politics, no fucking clue how this relates to irish politics, sorry for intruding