Irish politics discussion thread

Dublin SW & Wickla in the verge of throwing us two more TDs is it? (Also, transfers aaaagh).

Two more Green TDs, I should say.

I remember it being said (possibly on this thread!) that if Labour wanted to stand for anything, they should have let FG run a minority government after 2011 rather than let FF don the robes of the official opposition.

im on the feckin bus ffs, keep me informed pls

lab shouldve left fg to it? i think their motives and beliefs were sincere and i dont know were they "wrong" but politically, eek gluck

looks like Pringle over Pat the Cope

jaysus

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Gallagher_(academic)

i think this is the glum/characterful prof from last night gyac, based on his voice on rte radio atm

he sounds much cheerier today but v affable, v easy to listen to

"best electoral system in the world, obv"

when some of the worst pundits in the UK are feigning confusion and saying it is inscrutable and bad then it must be good tbh.

The only news in the last half hour (apart from late-breaking Donegal xps!) is that Kerry's last seat went to FF and the third seat in Laois-Offaly went to Charlie Flanagan of FG. And now I'm getting on my bike.

Laois-Offaly is ALMOST always last, ye have to drag the fifth seat out of us. Insert your cruel joke about boggers here. Charlie can consider himself chastened for his RIC shite. Where is a good livestream for this that works on mobile? Donegal is due shortly after 7.

The FF transfer in Wicklow has pushed the Green to 5th of 5, and next up will be transfers from the lowest of the three FG* - if they were superhumanly scheming, the other two might get a chance? There's an independent to go next after, anyway.

* if we don't like Timmys, how do we feel about Billy Timmins, in many ways the opposite name?

xp It's up now, as NN says The Cope is out, by 350 votes.

Btw I just want to point out that this winner got absolutely steamrollered by the electorate.

In the run up to the 2020 general election, she was broadly criticised for tweeting a photograph of her campaign van parked on a footpath. Among those critical of her actions, and her response to criticism, was disability activist Joanne O'Riordan who accused Senator Noone of making "the lives of people with disabilities harder to live". Noone initially tweeted that people should "get a grip" and cease complaining, but then deleted the tweet, and later apologised.

In the same election campaign, she referred to the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar as "Autistic", before denying having said it. Having been made aware that her remarks were recorded, she said that she didn't mean to use the word in that context and gave examples of potentially offensive words that could be used out of context, including "special" and "n***er". She then clarified that she would never use the n-word, and said it was a bad example. On 28 January 2020 she issued an apology.

However, the apology was not accepted by leading Autism and Asperger campaigner Fiona Ferris, the deputy chief executive of AsIAm, an autism charity who called for Noone and other politicians to learn about Autism. Ferris, expanding on her remarks, added "If we go about the attitude that people can say whatever they want and then totally withdraw a statement, I mean, the world would not be a very nice place."Carly Bailey, a candidate in the 2020 election and a parent of a son with Autism added in separate comments that "her words have hurt a great many people on the autism spectrum and their families."

The FF transfer in Wicklow has pushed the Green to 5th of 5, and next up will be transfers from the lowest of the three FG* - if they were superhumanly scheming, the other two might get a chance? There's an independent to go next after, anyway.

* if we don't like Timmys, how do we feel about Billy Timmins, in many ways the opposite name?

The RTE site works pretty well on my mobile, which is a nice surprise.

Was it official though AF? RTÉ Donegal have only just tweeted it, and you’d assume they’d be in haste to get the drinks in after that.

Pat the Cope Gallagher has lost his seat, Thomas Pringle, Joe McHugh and Charlie McConalogue have been elected without the reaching the quota on the 9th and final count

— RTÉdonegal (@RTEDonegal) February 10, 2020

Joe McHugh - 12,104 ELECTED
Thomas Pringle - 12,245 ELECTED
Charlie McConalogue - 11,432 ELECTED
Pat the Cope Gallagher - 11,074

*reads wikipedia page* so this guy is named after…a grocery store?

ah more of a Target

Wicklow only have one TD elected on count 12?! Jesus Christ!

No yeah I only mean it was official (on RTE) when I posted it, they had it time stamped 18:56.

* if we don't like Timmys, how do we feel about Billy Timmins, in many ways the opposite name?

As they (almost) (used to) sing at Ibrox Park every other weekend, I'd rather be a Billy than a Timmy.

👋🏻 @ silby, always good to see you

Sligo-Leitrim one TD seated after count 13? Come the fuck on, lads!

if i could sweat onions like sligo sweats candidates id be masterchef

Another nickname candidate is Kevin “Boxer” Moran in Longford-Westmeath. Idk much about him but he seems ok? Anyway this is hilarious.

Moran is often referred to by the nickname "Boxer", a nickname which arose from him hitting an opponent in a football game at the age of 12.

From my 2nd favourite RTÉ article of the day (this is the 1st):

In 2020 the left vote rose to unprecedented heights.

Defining the left as including Sinn Féin, Solidarity/PBP, Social Democrats, Labour and Greens gives a figure of 42%.

Arguably this might be augmented by a few independents, but this would not add much.

How far everyone in this grouping might agree with my classification is another matter, but I think most observers outside the country would agree with my grouping, although whether the Greens are really a left movement is widely debated.

Voters who were voting left and transferring left seem to have done so more between SF and Solidarity/PBP than between either of these and Labour.

Academic analyses has found that voters for all these parties tend to identify themselves as 'left, although that is not to say that their policy preferences accord with what we might expect of someone on the left: they certainly often favour tax cuts over spending on social services, and are wary of state intervention in economic affairs.

Labour squeezed a 5th seat out of Fingal.

Naïve American's question for the day: other than the obvious high-drama of not knowing which parties will form the eventual coalition government, what large issues are at stake in this election for the people of Ireland?

This is the exit poll breakdown and chimes with what I’ve heard from people at home and read online.

https://img.rasset.ie/001392a8-614.jpg?ratio=1.79

Housing is a huge issue in Ireland. Deems can maybe give more detail since he actually lives it, but rents are extortionate and landlords charge horrendous amounts for total kips. Homelessness is bundled alongside this too - this is a big problem, not just in terms of huge numbers of rough sleepers but also families housed in temporary accommodation.

Health service is completely inadequate, there have been pay disputes with nurses and tons of graduates emigrate cos fuck that.

But tl;dr the two big parties have run the country since independence, mostly Fianna Fáil, but since the crash people have run out of patience with them and the above problems getting worse and worse.

Ruth Dudley Edwards with her typically measured take

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/ruth-dudley-edwards/sinn-feins-rise-akin-to-that-of-nazis-in-1930s-and-is-a-threat-to-democracy-on-this-island-38940177.html

I saw a bad political cartoon earlier where Vardkar is saying to a homeless bearded tramp: but aren't you worried about Sinn Fein's history? he was no Matt!

aimless

housing is in an absolute mess.

anyone that owns is making out like a bandit, nobody paying rent can afford a deposit and any new stock coming on stream is snapped up by managed funds. standards can be very poor, and its damn near a return to tenements in areas of dublin

the govt has supported this because its core vote are propertied, and because the recovery from the property crash on paper continues for their historic supporters while a growing youth cohort (but not exclusively) struggles with very high rents and no availability.

the efforts to build are limp, visibly easily defeated due to a lack of govt will.

costs of living are high, standard of living has not improved and the prospects for people across the working/middle classes are dwindling

everything is in dublin, and all the associated commute and infrastructure stresses that brings as the remainder of the country becomes less and lesa viable

health is the usual state of affairs, but there is a cross-party plan in place that should run interrupted

brexit has gone away but isnt resolved in any way

national debt is still high and repayments on same are restrictive

the cost and availability of childcare is a big worry. both parents would tend to work, due to the cost of living

people from 40 down through college leavers are still feeling the effects of 2007 massively, and are being told to be patient.

homeless figures and causes are a matter of some contention but its bad and not going to improve while everyone from 60k earners down clamour for housing but no real effort has been made to build public stock. all public money poured into housing is in the form of direct payments to landlords, adding huge pressure to a burdened market to provide a solution that nobody asked for

even at figures nominally at full employment (worthless stat) the quality of work available to graduates and school leavers is following trends elsewhere, part time, low wage, dead end or serve-time jobs

this is a skewed-negative report, these are the issues as reported and any one of them is subject to the usual disputes i guess.

but FG in govt nine years effectively telling people that they have it grand, pay yr tax and pay yr rent (effectively a second ball of tax as its a direct transfer towards mortgages/bank debt) and stop eating avocado and someday we'll allow you to pay 400k for a flat you dont like in a place you dont like three hours from your job.

deputy leader of outgoing govt described voters as impatient today. nine years in office.

xp gyacs graph and that response above cover it

i don't know enough about the health plan in place, I know that the public have no faith in it but the parties all back it.

and maybe thats the underlier.

the voters do not trust the parties of state, with ample reason not to do so, and have moved kit and caboodle to an alternative.

What I'm hearing from you all is that the problems are very real, very deeply rooted and very distressing. But based on the electoral results so far, the parties of state do not appear to have been repudiated sufficiently to ensure that the next government will address these issues through radical reform. Good luck, Irish Republic.

xp speaking of that youth cohort it's surely worth noting that yr youngest voters not only grew up after but were born after the GFA, as far as the dwindling effectiveness of tarring SF with the paramilitary brush goes

Well part of the issue is that SF didn’t run enough candidates to take advantage of their polling. They did win 37/42 seats they contended though, which is unheard of as a %. I’m not sure what it would take to rout the big two - FF dropped to 20 seats only nine years ago but were back in government (albeit as junior partner) five years later.

tl;dr - the line about the Church always gets me

Also people continue to emigrate and I always wonder what our vote would look like if emigrants were included.

xp the move away from the ruling parties of our entire history as a nation has happened in the course of a decade, in the following traceable order

2012 party responsible for the crash falls to historic low vote share, their sworn enemies in in an historic landslide

2016 party responsible for the recovery took a hit for the decisions made and the slow progress, for the first time ever they enter a pact with party 1 above to keep govt stable. their vote share combined is falling

2020 main civil war parties have exhausted much of their political capital, and for the first time in the states history a third party stands a fair chance of controlling govt and electing a leader.

id say the repudiation has occurred, and not to underestimate the hold that civil war parties held until 2007, nor the significance of sf being the third party. the jump is not just one of normal political ideology and the risk is not just the normal risk of the untested.

whether the repudiation has moved the dial all that much on the political spectrum is to be seen, particularly if the govt formed nonetheless includes party 1.

but in the irish landscape, this is historic stuff and shockwaves will have significant effects in all three parties.

xp speaking of that youth cohort it's surely worth noting that yr youngest voters not only grew up after but were born after the GFA, as far as the dwindling effectiveness of tarring SF with the paramilitary brush goes

― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Monday, 10 February 2020 20:21 (twelve minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yes, for good and ill. not all of sf vote is new nor young voters, theres plenty of republican votes there yet, and plenty that backed sf when the reasons not to do so were entirely real.

Well part of the issue is that SF didn’t run enough candidates to take advantage of their polling. They did win 37/42 seats they contended though, which is unheard of as a %.

― hyds (gyac), Monday, 10 February 2020 20:24 (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah, of course- missed that completely ffs!

all indications are that SF could have landed sixty seats with their vote, and not the 38 or so that already represents a massive jump

its not the time for balance, unless its always the time for balance, bit set against many other places its obvious that ireland is still a massively privileged place in which to live and work, and that the structures set in place for opportunity to eg attend third level are world-class, that our health service, while always bulging and while non-essential (phrasing may be off here) waiting lists are huge and lengthy, actually sees pretty similar outcomes for serious illnesses and accidents between public and private patients etc

i dont say any of this to defend a particular political ideology etc, but im many years in a well funded public service working with good people doing good work and ive little time for disaster reports too

if regional development was prioritised and housing in tandem started coming on stream with protections in place that those without property had exclusive rights (not the current approach of boosting credit to them but making them compete), i really think we'd be one of the top places in the world to live very quickly again.

fg great sin is that housing can be a commodity but that it must be kept valuable for the deserving, ff great sin is that housing can be a commodity but that we can all get rich if its set up like a pyramid

neither even look like considering that they are completely wrong- not just incorrect, but wrong- on this

we await with some interest what sf great sin around housing will be.

theres a million holes in all of the above, im typing on a phone and things is moving very fast so take with pinches of salt and consider it a flavour analysis and not a reliable primer

Probably Modernist architecture xp

Greens now on 11!

Also 9 seats left to go and SF still in the lead!

but on the seismic change, perhaps if i put it in these terms: nb the substitutions aint perfect im trying to impress the effect not draw parallels

2012 crash. republicans lose in a landslide. hilarys dems get in.

2016: didnt work. hilarys dems get in again. bernie sanders runs as a separate party leader and polls enough that the republicans have to support the dems on programme for govt votes, because for once the loss in dem votes did not lead to a gop recovery

2020. bernie sanders party is the biggest of the now three significant parties in america, despite not running in all the states due to a clerical error. figures show that without this error he would dominate whatever ridiculous setup ye have that controls the money and the power. he might agree to a programme of govt with hilarys dems for stabilitys stake, but he wants to see if he can form one with the communist party of america firstx just for the lols.

in this scenario, bernie sanders party were killing nypd in the 90s and defend it today.

maybe that clarifies the kind of shift we're talking, idk

i gotta go eat

thrilled about the greens, and happy that soc dem and labour are showing a centre-left alternative maybe

There's a SD to come (he must be fairly edging it by now, he's 12 votes short) in Wicklow, and an Independent just went through in Sligo-Leitrim.

And from the other 7, if there's one each from Sligo-Leitrim and one each from Cavan-Monaghan, and if the Independent that's out in Wicklow doesn't give the Green more than 200 votes of a leg-up...

We'll have a three way tie for 37.

I don't actually think it'll work, specifically Cavan-Monaghan have three FF and one FG, and anyway I'd rather we get the 12th Green in Wicklow (Dublin South West gave up an 11th by the way, Labour->Green transfer of 2745 out of 5803)

oops xp to gyac!

best electoral system in the world, obv

Literally cannot believe this result.