Irish politics discussion thread

dev og might be a decent man about the parish, im sure he is, but hes retrograde ff isnt he, and the dynasty is toxic afaic

count 7 in galway, and dev og short by 44 votes to be first elected yet

first actual serious considered call for a 3 party, 1 year brexit and housing national govt

That’s an obvious ploy to blunt SF’s moment, not a chance

I have been demonstrating (with the help of the RTE site) this to Jen, who's from Scotland, so it's similar but different.

She is impressed, but asked one question that I wasn't sure on - why don't they reduce the quota by the (the right fraction of) the now-unusable votes after each transfer?

I am fairly sure that it makes no difference at all, mind (because if it doesn't get up to the quota then it eventually gets down to the right number of seats).

SF have only two TDs who had to wait for the second count - and one of them was in Dublin Mid West, where the gent in question was waiting on transfers from the SF TD that came in on the first count.

i am utterly enthralled by this professor emeritus talking us through the stats

like a quiet brian cox character turn

finished with wonderful pathos

"older people dont vote, well"

pause

face glum

look down

sotto voce

"older than me anyway. its hard to get out"

That’s an obvious ploy to blunt SF’s moment, not a chance

― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:36 (forty-one seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

SFs greatest threat is as opposition against a combined FF/FG again, right now FG are looking at FF and as much as eyeing them towards their mate SF, mouthing "your turn this time"

FG have stayed firm all day on not going in with SF

FF stayed firm until yesterday 10:01pm that they werent going in with anyone, today theyve been shouting into letterboxes looking for a dance

they went back to professor he pointed out how stupid it was to ask academics anything, they dont talk to anyone they dont go out and they barely get it right with hindsight, he practically finished by peering out from under his eyebrows and sayin i was told there would be cake

ive no idea AF, re quota

You've to pick a number, as well to stick to it at that stage i guess

carlow looking good for ff for maybe three seats, fg for maybe two, four available

pat spillane, under the stage name of michael o regan, throwing out all manner of his usual windup theories

29 sf
12 each the lads

another independent in in limerick county

ahead of an sf, who is excluded

jaysus the streaks fucked

Three available now in Carlow, very hard to see how FG would get two in unless there's a hidden wellspring of personal respect from PBP voters for the position of Deputy Chair of the Fine Gael Parliamentary Party.

high profile green saoirse mac of achill island excluded and her votes will essentially decide to a large degree who of mulhern, chambers and dillon get in

calleary looks safe.

apart, ironically, from the third cousin, ive dealt with them all to some degree or another and ring safely in and calleary looking safely in are the worst, mulhern went loopy but was a good councillor once upon a time

bad result for the quality of rep in the county imo

back to ye in the studio brian

heres mayo

xp to myself: Implicit in this is that it's the third FG who put the first FF over with 10% of the transfers.

saoirse's vote distribution v interesting- green party but v independently so, fairly described as more sf leaning there on rte.

mulhern gone

her fg transfers of 7k would do very well to bring dillon up to quota but he'll pass chambers, and the ballina transfers will help calleary but prob not to quota (not that it matters)

xp The transfers there went all over the shop, Brian - Mulherin next for the jump then presumably Chambers?

idk about carlow, its a bit of a wild one, even under the parties theres a few rebels

idk if transfers follow as expected, theyre all rich farmers sher they all walk the same roads

mulherin is gone, theyll be distributing her votes and there will be nothing for chambers so it would be almost impossible to see her stay, rte essentially just dealt with her as gone

tv coverage finito, switching to online coverage

reminder- take two days off after election ffs

It's a sign of our vital electoral gut fauna that Renua haven't been the first eliminated in every constituency, but God they put their best effort in.

ALEX HARDING*
MEATH EAST
*Unfortunately Alex had to stand down as a candidate at the last minute. However he will be a candidate in a future election.

youd have to be looking for them, i hadnt heard nor thought the name all day- and that's good enough for me

nationalist parties likewise utterly rejected

and yes, i know

but theres shades of it, and im no fan of em but sf aint that

sovereignty movements certainly oughtn’t be conflated with brownshirted nationalism

fg 14
ff 16

creeping up

ff/sf is practically accepted now, but some broad church of the left theatre is expected first

Sean Sherlock! Why did he have to get back in?!

what was it about

ah yes

he wrote to me once to ask me to change the public phone number of our entire bureau, it was similar to one of his constituents and she was mithered with fat fingered wronguns

headed dail paper, obv

I hope you told him where to go

It goes without saying that I know next to nothing about your politics but this morning I was reading a short article in Le Monde in which they describe SF as ‘nationalist’ and it made me curious. What does this mean in practice?

Still waiting for the first absolutely hateful Graun take on this momentous result for a left wing party in the west, especially after that ridiculous Tisdall piece on Macron the other day.

i wrote him a politely worded letter g, and posted it as i normally do

pom

it means that one of their core tenets, probably there key tenet, is the achievement of a 32 county. republic on the ireland of ireland

thats the dry version

There have been shit takes all over Twitter!

pom - nationalist in the sense of supportive of Ireland the independent nation, the whole island. We do have nationalist parties that express their hatred of foreigners but SF is not that.

i wrote him a politely worded letter g, and posted it as i normally do

Wouldn't 'republican' be a better descriptor instead of nationalist? (media here have been using the same word btw)

Would watch an RTE 24/7 elections show w/ Gyac and Deems gaelicking us through the results btw, good stuff here ppl!

il comptait déjà 29 députés confirmés pour le Dail

paul murphy was asked last night, as the question of a left alliance in govt arose, whether SF were 'left'

he demurred

im open to question in this, but one question that arises is at what stage the political theory on economics etc married the national question, and rather interestingly to what extent one is the vehicle for the other.

nb this question is interesting from outside looking in anyway, but its very interesting indeed when considered in the party itself across different people (cant say factions, cant say groupings, afaict theyre a remarkably disciplined bunch ito message unity). i get the idea that there's probably a wide range of prioritisation across the two issues, but in the circs and as-yet untested its very hard to tell.

Along with the flag?

xp I am not sure RTÉ would air something as, well, avant garde as deems being his usual inscrutable self and me rolling my eyes and muttering “fucking Blueshirts/shoneens” every few seconds. Maybe if they gave me a hurl to break something every time someone was elected on the first count?

i would agree, in their angle on immigration and all else associated issues, sf are declared irish republican but not irish nationalist

SF are pretty left for us! And yeah I know the SNP are trialling the whole “nationalism but make it left” aspect atm, but you’d have reason to believe that the economics stays intact even in the event of a successful border poll?

listen if they aired that professor free-associating the demographics through an examination of his relationship with his ascendancy mother last night, im a shoe-in never mind a shoneen

yes i was sidetracked

the other question is the inscrutability of the surge

all housing?

nationalist rise?

move left as a result of patience broken with wage slave bank rescue?

long term, or "we'll give it a go"?

nobody has a fuckin clue selon le prof et selon moi

sf are populist left would be a fair comment i think, and we shall see what their red lines are i spose?

listen if they aired that professor free-associating the demographics through an examination of his relationship with his ascendancy mother last night, im a shoe-in never mind a shoneen

he may be better in the telling, or at least better watched after a long day for all concerned