one aspect of my itinerant childhood is that im intimate and interested in a fair few constituencies
i know of thomas pringle and you're as well to elect joe duffy to a seat, hes sliding up and down there after stressing to everyone south of bruckless that the bluestacks to bundoran need a strong independent voice like his
in mayo, north towards ballina mulhern has had an idiosyncratic few years shall we say, hupped into the seanad to keep her current but not frontline after not making it last time, looked frankly dazed beside chambers (more of anon) and saoirse (who was not more coherent than dazed, but as always more engaging) when that trio were showcased on rte live last week
chambers is lagging after fg threw dillon in to make up for an enda-shaped football man gap around ballintubber, chambers herself is a ballyheane woman and both parishes drink in the punch bowl ffs so that was a funny call, she had been heavily involved on brexit and performed credibly, but was up to her neck in the attendance hiccup recently. those two are going to directly battle for the same trough of transfers, and ring was obviously never troubled although for conway walsh to get in on first count was very unexpected- she was a "might get in" and was in fact held to possibly profit from the above fg throatslitting
elsewhere, calleary is likely to get in, and m@nning tallied 67 first preference i think, and none from the island itself
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:14 (four years ago) link
back to you in the studio, claire
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:16 (four years ago) link
dev og might be a decent man about the parish, im sure he is, but hes retrograde ff isnt he, and the dynasty is toxic afaic
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:18 (four years ago) link
count 7 in galway, and dev og short by 44 votes to be first elected yet
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:19 (four years ago) link
first actual serious considered call for a 3 party, 1 year brexit and housing national govt
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:21 (four years ago) link
That’s an obvious ploy to blunt SF’s moment, not a chance
― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:36 (four years ago) link
I have been demonstrating (with the help of the RTE site) this to Jen, who's from Scotland, so it's similar but different.
She is impressed, but asked one question that I wasn't sure on - why don't they reduce the quota by the (the right fraction of) the now-unusable votes after each transfer?
I am fairly sure that it makes no difference at all, mind (because if it doesn't get up to the quota then it eventually gets down to the right number of seats).
SF have only two TDs who had to wait for the second count - and one of them was in Dublin Mid West, where the gent in question was waiting on transfers from the SF TD that came in on the first count.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 February 2020 00:36 (four years ago) link
i am utterly enthralled by this professor emeritus talking us through the stats
like a quiet brian cox character turn
finished with wonderful pathos
"older people dont vote, well"
pause
face glum
look down
sotto voce
"older than me anyway. its hard to get out"
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:36 (four years ago) link
― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:36 (forty-one seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink
SFs greatest threat is as opposition against a combined FF/FG again, right now FG are looking at FF and as much as eyeing them towards their mate SF, mouthing "your turn this time"
FG have stayed firm all day on not going in with SF
FF stayed firm until yesterday 10:01pm that they werent going in with anyone, today theyve been shouting into letterboxes looking for a dance
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:40 (four years ago) link
they went back to professor he pointed out how stupid it was to ask academics anything, they dont talk to anyone they dont go out and they barely get it right with hindsight, he practically finished by peering out from under his eyebrows and sayin i was told there would be cake
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:42 (four years ago) link
ive no idea AF, re quota
You've to pick a number, as well to stick to it at that stage i guess
carlow looking good for ff for maybe three seats, fg for maybe two, four available
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:45 (four years ago) link
pat spillane, under the stage name of michael o regan, throwing out all manner of his usual windup theories
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:48 (four years ago) link
29 sf12 each the lads
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 00:49 (four years ago) link
another independent in in limerick county
ahead of an sf, who is excluded
jaysus the streaks fucked
Three available now in Carlow, very hard to see how FG would get two in unless there's a hidden wellspring of personal respect from PBP voters for the position of Deputy Chair of the Fine Gael Parliamentary Party.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 February 2020 01:00 (four years ago) link
high profile green saoirse mac of achill island excluded and her votes will essentially decide to a large degree who of mulhern, chambers and dillon get in
calleary looks safe.
apart, ironically, from the third cousin, ive dealt with them all to some degree or another and ring safely in and calleary looking safely in are the worst, mulhern went loopy but was a good councillor once upon a time
bad result for the quality of rep in the county imo
back to ye in the studio brian
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 01:01 (four years ago) link
heres mayo
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 01:02 (four years ago) link
xp to myself: Implicit in this is that it's the third FG who put the first FF over with 10% of the transfers.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 February 2020 01:03 (four years ago) link
saoirse's vote distribution v interesting- green party but v independently so, fairly described as more sf leaning there on rte.
mulhern gone
her fg transfers of 7k would do very well to bring dillon up to quota but he'll pass chambers, and the ballina transfers will help calleary but prob not to quota (not that it matters)
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 01:05 (four years ago) link
xp The transfers there went all over the shop, Brian - Mulherin next for the jump then presumably Chambers?
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 February 2020 01:06 (four years ago) link
idk about carlow, its a bit of a wild one, even under the parties theres a few rebels
idk if transfers follow as expected, theyre all rich farmers sher they all walk the same roads
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 01:07 (four years ago) link
mulherin is gone, theyll be distributing her votes and there will be nothing for chambers so it would be almost impossible to see her stay, rte essentially just dealt with her as gone
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 01:08 (four years ago) link
tv coverage finito, switching to online coverage
reminder- take two days off after election ffs
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 01:11 (four years ago) link
It's a sign of our vital electoral gut fauna that Renua haven't been the first eliminated in every constituency, but God they put their best effort in.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 February 2020 01:13 (four years ago) link
ALEX HARDING*MEATH EAST*Unfortunately Alex had to stand down as a candidate at the last minute. However he will be a candidate in a future election.
― Andrew Farrell, Monday, 10 February 2020 01:14 (four years ago) link
youd have to be looking for them, i hadnt heard nor thought the name all day- and that's good enough for me
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 01:16 (four years ago) link
nationalist parties likewise utterly rejected
and yes, i know
but theres shades of it, and im no fan of em but sf aint that
sovereignty movements certainly oughtn’t be conflated with brownshirted nationalism
― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Monday, 10 February 2020 01:58 (four years ago) link
fg 14ff 16
creeping up
ff/sf is practically accepted now, but some broad church of the left theatre is expected first
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 08:52 (four years ago) link
Sean Sherlock! Why did he have to get back in?!
― hyds (gyac), Monday, 10 February 2020 08:57 (four years ago) link
what was it about
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:00 (four years ago) link
ah yes
he wrote to me once to ask me to change the public phone number of our entire bureau, it was similar to one of his constituents and she was mithered with fat fingered wronguns
headed dail paper, obv
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:02 (four years ago) link
I hope you told him where to go
― hyds (gyac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:04 (four years ago) link
It goes without saying that I know next to nothing about your politics but this morning I was reading a short article in Le Monde in which they describe SF as ‘nationalist’ and it made me curious. What does this mean in practice?
― toilet-cleaning brain surgeon (pomenitul), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:10 (four years ago) link
Still waiting for the first absolutely hateful Graun take on this momentous result for a left wing party in the west, especially after that ridiculous Tisdall piece on Macron the other day.
― calzino, Monday, 10 February 2020 09:16 (four years ago) link
i wrote him a politely worded letter g, and posted it as i normally do
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:26 (four years ago) link
pom
it means that one of their core tenets, probably there key tenet, is the achievement of a 32 county. republic on the ireland of ireland
thats the dry version
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:27 (four years ago) link
There have been shit takes all over Twitter!pom - nationalist in the sense of supportive of Ireland the independent nation, the whole island. We do have nationalist parties that express their hatred of foreigners but SF is not that.
― hyds (gyac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:28 (four years ago) link
Wouldn't 'republican' be a better descriptor instead of nationalist? (media here have been using the same word btw)
Would watch an RTE 24/7 elections show w/ Gyac and Deems gaelicking us through the results btw, good stuff here ppl!
― Le Bateau Ivre, Monday, 10 February 2020 09:30 (four years ago) link
il comptait déjà 29 députés confirmés pour le Dail
― hyds (gyac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:31 (four years ago) link
paul murphy was asked last night, as the question of a left alliance in govt arose, whether SF were 'left'
he demurred
im open to question in this, but one question that arises is at what stage the political theory on economics etc married the national question, and rather interestingly to what extent one is the vehicle for the other.
nb this question is interesting from outside looking in anyway, but its very interesting indeed when considered in the party itself across different people (cant say factions, cant say groupings, afaict theyre a remarkably disciplined bunch ito message unity). i get the idea that there's probably a wide range of prioritisation across the two issues, but in the circs and as-yet untested its very hard to tell.
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:33 (four years ago) link
Along with the flag?
― American Fear of Pranksterism (Ed), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:33 (four years ago) link
xp I am not sure RTÉ would air something as, well, avant garde as deems being his usual inscrutable self and me rolling my eyes and muttering “fucking Blueshirts/shoneens” every few seconds. Maybe if they gave me a hurl to break something every time someone was elected on the first count?
― hyds (gyac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:35 (four years ago) link
i would agree, in their angle on immigration and all else associated issues, sf are declared irish republican but not irish nationalist
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:35 (four years ago) link
SF are pretty left for us! And yeah I know the SNP are trialling the whole “nationalism but make it left” aspect atm, but you’d have reason to believe that the economics stays intact even in the event of a successful border poll?
― hyds (gyac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:37 (four years ago) link
listen if they aired that professor free-associating the demographics through an examination of his relationship with his ascendancy mother last night, im a shoe-in never mind a shoneen
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:37 (four years ago) link
yes i was sidetracked
the other question is the inscrutability of the surge
all housing?
nationalist rise?
move left as a result of patience broken with wage slave bank rescue?
long term, or "we'll give it a go"?
nobody has a fuckin clue selon le prof et selon moi
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:38 (four years ago) link
sf are populist left would be a fair comment i think, and we shall see what their red lines are i spose?
― BSC Joan Baez (darraghmac), Monday, 10 February 2020 09:40 (four years ago) link