Irish politics discussion thread

Shane Ross out on his ear is it? FG not doing well in the west? You love to see it.

jesus the first prefs so far are way out from the exit polls

sf romping

may elect a far higher number of seats than expected

anything else is too early, transfers are gonna be huge

first word is that sf transfers are not going as left as wouldve been expected, gonna get filthy

ff/fg decision on next gov just got loaded, because if we have to go again any time soon (or after a bad term like fg just managed) there seems little doubt that sf would run another 20 seats and lead the dail

FF were branded leftist in a red scare in the 1930s -- but I'm not too sure they have lived up to that since. I would probably call them centre-right with strong historic elements of populism and clientelism. Relations with the church are another historical factor somewhat distinct to Ireland, eg as against UK in the same period.

https://www.lookleftonline.org/2015/04/better-dead-than-red/

The 1932 election campaign had been ruthless, with the outgoing government attempting to label the ascending Fianna Fáil as communistic. On the eve of polling, Cumann na nGaedheal went as far as to take out a front-page advertisement in The Irish Times which warned the public that “The gunmen are voting for Fianna Fáil. The Communists are voting for Fianna Fáil.”

Despite Cumann na nGaedheal claiming he was some sort of communist, the Fianna Fáil leader Éamon de Valera shared the view that communism was a poor fit for the Irish nation, remarking in 1931, before his party’s ascent to power, that “I doubt there is any country in the world that presents such an unfruitful field for Communism as our country. The individualistic tendencies of our people are against it; the system of land tenure – ‘peasant proprietorship’ – is against it, our Catholic faith is against it.”

what is the effect of the clientelism and the populism, tho, as regards the spectrum?

SF currently ahead on 1st prefs in Laois-Offaly. That’s new.

1st prefs with 36% of boxes open

Latest #LaoisOffaly tally (36% open):
- Stanley (SF) 20%
- Cowen (FF) 14.5%
- Ormond (FF) 11.8%
- Nolan 10.9%
- Flanagan (FG) 8.7%
- Corcoran (FG) 8.3%
- Fleming (FF) 7.3%
- Leahy 6.8%
- Hackett (GP) 4.5% https://t.co/NiaHHYwEjG

— Maria Delaney (@mhdelaney) February 9, 2020

theres no doubt that the first prefs are a landslide vs expectations and exit poll

I'm sure I've said it before but I've never been sure what the difference is between FG and FF as, to an outsider, they very much look like two cheeks of the same arse.

patrician vs clientelism is shorthand

SF going to top the poll in Dublin Bay North. They were 6th last time!

lads ill give us this

it never devolves into accusations that all rats are gay or wtf else

This seems important!

its huge

but the fun is that, after the initial exit poll, its shifting chaos for several days, in this case maybe weeks, as the counts, transfers, seats, and possible coalitions become apparent and then real

historic elections, these past few.

Varadkar can just brush SF aside with a "sorry, we don't like you", and that's that?

no true English voter would put up with weeks of fucking about while you try to find a government that accurately represents the oh wait

Varadkar can just brush SF aside with a "sorry, we don't like you", and that's that?

― Le Bateau Ivre

sure, why not?

not a trite dismissal, btw, but- notwithstanding that everything before the final seat counts are known is posturing - thats the official FG party position, they are quite significantly opposed on major issues of approach and priority, leo will have an eye on fg core vote at this stage, etc etc etc

lets not even, ok lets

gyac, can you cover the civil war politics issues of FG/SF, i reckon you may have a better take than i

xp to NV, im seeing a lot of "theres an onus on all major parties to enter into a broad alliance of..." etc etc

but any such govt would imo please nobody, really.

im not sure that FF/SF have any major ideological stumbling blocks if they can carve up the ministries and stay out of each others way besides

mainly because FF dont have an ideology, i guess

proportional governments don't feel too different to first past the post in that sense, you've still got to form a "coalition" that can get yr business done. as an outsider the FF/SF thing seems near inevitable at this stage, and i would imagine SF will be happy to let the big boys do most of the driving as long as they can use the opportunity in government to showboat/make themselves more credible/grind their usual axes take your pick

xp Christ, what gave you that impression? I’ll write something after dinner but what should I cover

https://m.independent.ie/incoming/varadkar-says-fine-gael-coalition-with-sinn-fein-is-not-an-option-and-would-be-like-a-forced-marriage-38939826.html

xp the relish with which you go at the blueshirts!

Just checking the seat figures for the first time in a while and wow SF have a lot of enthusiasm.

xp it’s probably my residual ancestral guilt? But basically tl;dr why won’t they govern together?

Leo Varadkar finding out he didn't get in on the second count is better with the Curb Your Enthusiasm music #GE2020 pic.twitter.com/jCT7gMHr7Z

— Adam Gilroy (@GilroysWorld) February 9, 2020

That is incredible

zombie Michael Lowry still topping the poll in Tipperary

nv, ive a feeling that both ff and fg think that letting a waxing sf sit as official opposition while they pair up miserably awaiting the next election would merely make the current momentum shift worse

each of the former big boys also recognises that not forming a stable govt now means sf run forty extra candidates next time, and while a simple analysis isnt wholly reliable (either way! certainly an element of anti-sf vote would flee strongly back to FF/FG) based on today, twenty of them would get seats and that is really that.

ideologically, ff suit. in circumstances, ff suit (martin *has* to make taoiseach, even if its split- else become the only ff leader not to do so in his surely-numbered tenure).

sitting this one out might well suit fg, though the historical inevitability of being dumped after cleaning up the mess will smart, and the possibility that brexit and economy stabilised might make this next term a lot easier will reallllly smart.

leo will settle for a strong showing vs expectations and the suspicion that leader of the opposition might suit him a lot better than taoiseach, where he really seemed to die by consultant and inactivity.

nb i know nothing about irish politics either but we are story spinners are we not

can we get fred in here dyou think

re leo, i guess the avocado is well and truly smashed now huh

(xp) I think.

tom what think ye of the shinner surge and will it hasten the 75 county republic

Now just where does that figure come from

zombie Michael Lowry still topping the poll in Tipperary

― seandalai, Sunday, February 9, 2020 8:22 PM (nineteen minutes ago)

A winner in Tipp since '97

Know nothing about the SF outside the North tbh, they're pretty shitty there, though look at what they're up against ffs. The formation of the New Republic to be timed to coincide with 10-in-a-row or gtf.

xp i have no idea how many counties we would divide the uk into silby, apologies i just threw that out there

sf policy in ni since brexit has been to not be there afaict

Isn’t it 74 darragh
https://i.postimg.cc/CLK40nCh/654-B45-F2-B647-417-E-B1-ED-673-AB8-FC766-A.jpg

Well they managed not to be in Stormont for long enough.

pleased to read former ilxor the DIRTY VICAR* note that all Irish political parties that aren't SF or the greens**, either (1) split from SF, or (2) descended from splittists, or (3) merged with splittists

*i can't vouch for his facts but i love to see it all the same
**someone on the thread notes that their dad split from SF and joined the greens so maybe this merger than implicates the greens also

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar fails to reach the quota by 20 votes on the 4th count.

“You’re pizza is going to be gone cold by the time this is over,” he says to reporters. #DublinWest #GE2020 pic.twitter.com/45Qdp6d3ja

— Áine McMahon (@AineMcMahon) February 9, 2020

don't think 74 can include scotland (33) or wales (10) tho deems is correct that a redivision wd be fun and fair

*cough* Cornwall

I've not seen it linked (and it's a little harder to find than I'd like), but here's RTE's site:

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national

i will not today be taking a position on cornwall, thank you all for your time, no further questions

tbh 75 wasnt a bad guess so

af, just searching rte will surely lead you not to miss it?

Pah, Leo is a little baby, Micheál Martin is still unelected after five counts.

I'm in no way impartial but there is literally nothing in the UK system to match the sight of these titans getting closer and loser to the line, like Zeno's paradox.

(letting the typo stand seems fair)

dm, there's no link to it from the big 'Live' stream, which seems odd.

pleased to read former ilxor the DIRTY VICAR* note that all Irish political parties that aren't SF or the greens**, either (1) split from SF, or (2) descended from splittists, or (3) merged with splittists

*i can't vouch for his facts but i love to see it all the same
**someone on the thread notes that their dad split from SF and joined the greens so maybe this merger than implicates the greens also

― mark s, Sunday, 9 February 2020 20:52 (fourteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

gyac do we agree that this is at the very least an angle as opposed to a fact, or dyou concur

frank flannery, no disinterested party obv, took an interesting tack earlier today on tv when he walked through how it was fg at every stage that brought the parties involved in paramilitary activities in from the cold, so it could be argued that sf might claim to be the only and original, but certainly the other two parties will have their own original/legitimacy story

seeing as sf are seeking to enter govt in the 33rd dáil id say theyve agreed to a certain extent that theyve joined the legitimate fold, or at least the point is moot

theres a very strange eye of the storm quality about this moment, from when it became clear that sf were going to absolutely thunder home until theyd essentially spent themselves as far as the candidates theyd run are concerned

in other systems, that momentum would be expected to continue, but we know what the limit is and are waiting for this mad thrashing to cease, and wait for what beasts will win the second stage fight over the scraps sf will leave behind, which will almost certainly be the actual substance of the result

best electoral system in the world, obv