Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

I didn’t need convincing but I’m not really radical

He's not even the worst case scenario for red diaper babies - he could have been a cop or a prosecutor.

he was a troop, that is a kind of cop

It's delightful that the most establishment-friendly candidate is the one that's cash-strapped and flailing the most obviously.

― bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), 7. februar 2020 04:15 (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I think one of the centrist melts wrote tongue in cheek that the primary was an interesting battle between Biden's multiracial working class coalition and Sanders' endless amount of cash :)

Glad it turns out Biden has neither.

Hum it’s almost like media coverage affects people perceptions and they totally ran with a Buttigieg win with glossy graphics for the better part of a week despite the fact that we still don’t know who actually won https://t.co/ajZFHgwh4c

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) February 7, 2020

Michelle Goldberg working overtime this morning I see

Listened to the 538 podcast. They say there's more certainty that Buttigieg won SDE than that Bernie won on Final Assignment.

And Buttigieg is surging because he is picking up Biden votes, I would think.

for this reason I am not encouraged by Biden's reported $ problems, would prefer to see him tread water for another couple months

was hoping that among actual voters a Biden collapse could benefit Bernie as much as a Pete type but probably wishful thinking

It would probably benefit Bernie in the south?

But 538 also pointed out that Bernie didn't really do that well from initial caucus vote to final alignment. He went from 26% to 28%, which isn't really that good. To a large extent Sanders is a well known politician, and a lot of people just don't really like him that much.

In most caucus years, the delegate strength, which equates to the Electoral College, is the only information the Iowa Democratic Party releases. This year, it released more data about the caucus results, including how many people supported each candidate when the caucuses started and how many supported each at the conclusion of the presidential preference picking.

I could do without the Buttigieg as rat meme that's picking up steam of late.

xxp not sure how this matters very much—none of the the remaning caucus states have an especially large # of delegates

also, Fred, Bernie's favorability has hovered at or near the top in the senate for years now, above or alongside Klobuchar and Warren

a lot of ppl don't like DJT, and he's president

iirc Bernie prob has the highest favorability rating of any nationally known politician.

or did? maybe the visibility of a primary run necessarily does damage to that...

Hadrian, I know that. But there's also a lot of data conflicting with that, or at least making it a bit more complicated, at this point, and it's pretty stupid to just ignore it completely. My guess right now is that Bernie is going to win, but it is a bit worrying he didn't do better in the second round, no?

nope

lol

I could do without the Buttigieg as rat meme that's picking up steam of late.

― 🚶‍♂️💨 (Eric H.), Friday, February 7, 2020 6:42 AM (fourteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

rt

one of my friend's husbands is a politician who thinks the real reason we should be worried about a legit buttiggreufug candidacy is his senior adviser lis smith, who seems to have caused all of our problems http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/lis-smith-pete-buttigieg-2020-campaign.html

i still don't really see it but i'm concerned

lol it's early and i think i suggested my friend has multiple husbands

If you can't just choose one...

Fred it would be worrying if we had run-offs but we don't

Bernie is outpolling Trump in the hypothetical general, and I suspect that gap wld widen after nomination when people see how deftly he swats down eggs-in-one-basket "Socialist!" attack... I think most Dem hedging on Bernie has to do with a caricature of his policies and that exposure will mitigate that

Well, we'll see.

Right, but 538 shows about a 1 in 4 chance of nobody getting a majority, and then it's pretty bad if Sanders can't create a compromise? Except on their podcast they speculated that in that case it would probably be Warren, so I guess I should be happy...

He's never faced an opponent like DJT before.

xpost

fwiw the bernie hedging I’m exposed to is based on his inability to prevent his supporters from being public dickheads and the fact that the GOP are absolutely drooling over the prospect of running against him

He's never faced an opponent like DJT before.

FWIW the Trump camp has been trying out anti-Bernie messaging recently and it's the same rote Victims Of Communism shit ppl have been trotting out since forever

I really don't know what else they'll have? he can't outflank him on populist terms, they'll probably be reduced to weakly coded antisemitism and whose wife is hotter

i think bernie would pretty obviously kick trumps ass across multiple continents at least rhetorically, whether that translates to an electoral victory god who fuckin knows. but the republicans seem to not have the shit to smear him with

anyway i am donating to the sanders campaign this morning

xp I've been impressed w/ Bernie's messaging on this front, he's handling it better than in 2016, fine-tuning the line that "we *already* have socialism, for corporations"

he can't outflank him on populist terms, they'll probably be reduced to weakly coded antisemitism and whose wife is hotter

I thought you were referring to Trump lol

who knows maybe Bernie will show he can't take a punch when it gets ridiculous, which it soon will

but the way he's campaigned so far it's hard to imagine Trump landing many

The best possible response to Trump is to just say "Shut up, asshole," and go right back to talking about what you were talking about. Sanders is one-note enough to make this work.

something tells me Bernie has heard "communists are bad" attacks before

one thing I've heard coworkers say is that Bernie comes off "too angry" which is like...uhhh yeah, I'm glad he's angry! one of my least favorite things about politics is the knowledge that our representatives are all buddies behind closed doors who treat their jobs like sports to be won or lost, while you've got one side strongarming their way into rapist Supreme Court justices, leaders who are above the law, and hundreds of environmental protections dismantled solely for the benefit of Republican donors, and then you've got guys like Biden & Schumer just going "aww brush it off, we'll get 'em next time, you know I really think Republicans are gonna come to their senses about this"

if you are running for president right now and are *not* angry gtfo

I think Trump’s line on Bernie is going to be that he’s a crazy socialist who’s going to put the government in charge of everything and wreck the economy.

And take away your guns the day after inauguration
And release all the terrorists from prison
And let Mexicans kill your family
And make it illegal to talk to your doctor

He would say that about any democrat

As least he won't call him "Mini".

Bernie hog truthers concur

^^^ would make a good passphrase

Angry Non-Democrat Socialist is about the best candidate one can hope for

Bernie should take "Shup Up Asshole" and run with it—buttons hats stickers etc

Whether they’d say it about any Democrat and whether people would believe it about any candidate are two different questions.