Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

So far all I've seen from Mayor Mike's campaign is dumb shit talking stuff like this. Not that I have expectations, but it's telling about the level what he's aiming for.

Watched the first few seconds; that's sub-Colbert, you're slandering the Gravel teens.

aw man now i miss the Gravel teens

Here we go

the Biden campaign is running out of money and the candidate isn't even appearing personally in New Hampshire at the moment https://t.co/QG5UK7Mlah

— ryan cooper (@ryanlcooper) February 7, 2020

He received four pieces of mail from the Biden campaign. Only one mentioned the economy. The rest were about Trump, civility and international affairs, issues that did not move voters, he said.

Harpootlian said a third-place finish would make Biden “the comeback kid,” Bill Clinton’s description of himself after the then-governor of Arkansas battled to a second-place finish here in 1992.
“Then he goes to Nevada — and then thank God he comes to a normal state,” he said, referring to the fourth-voting state, South Carolina.

So Nate Silver's prediction machine now has Bernie as the favorite, with a 50% chance of winning the nomination.

had my eyes glued to dumb election shit all week, at great expense to my own health and personal happiness, and i had no clue there was a debate tomorrow

Why’d you do that

It's delightful that the most establishment-friendly candidate is the one that's cash-strapped and flailing the most obviously.

a debate tomorrow

to mop up all those agonized, undecided voters in NH and let them finally make up their whimsical minds who to vote for

...and also people who have busy lives and maybe haven't been following the primaries obsessively like most of us freaks

wow, feel real sorry for those people!

now if you'll excuse me, i have to prepare my draft for tomorrow morning's freakout about democracy

Nate Silver's prediction machine

I'm begging you

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQJO2eYUEAI-vYU?format=jpg&name=small

— bob marley

Why’d you do that

― Swilling Ambergris, Esq. (silby), Thursday, February 6, 2020 10:13 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

there's a sucker born every minute i was one of the 1988 ones

I'm in love with the shape of democracy

ed sheetigieg

his dad was an anarchist punk and now he makes funkless pop music, its sad

His campaign is indeed a CIA psyop, but just to convince radical leftists not to reproduce.

I didn’t need convincing but I’m not really radical

He's not even the worst case scenario for red diaper babies - he could have been a cop or a prosecutor.

he was a troop, that is a kind of cop

It's delightful that the most establishment-friendly candidate is the one that's cash-strapped and flailing the most obviously.

― bold caucasian eroticism (Simon H.), 7. februar 2020 04:15 (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I think one of the centrist melts wrote tongue in cheek that the primary was an interesting battle between Biden's multiracial working class coalition and Sanders' endless amount of cash :)

Glad it turns out Biden has neither.

Hum it’s almost like media coverage affects people perceptions and they totally ran with a Buttigieg win with glossy graphics for the better part of a week despite the fact that we still don’t know who actually won https://t.co/ajZFHgwh4c

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) February 7, 2020

Michelle Goldberg working overtime this morning I see

Listened to the 538 podcast. They say there's more certainty that Buttigieg won SDE than that Bernie won on Final Assignment.

And Buttigieg is surging because he is picking up Biden votes, I would think.

for this reason I am not encouraged by Biden's reported $ problems, would prefer to see him tread water for another couple months

was hoping that among actual voters a Biden collapse could benefit Bernie as much as a Pete type but probably wishful thinking

It would probably benefit Bernie in the south?

But 538 also pointed out that Bernie didn't really do that well from initial caucus vote to final alignment. He went from 26% to 28%, which isn't really that good. To a large extent Sanders is a well known politician, and a lot of people just don't really like him that much.

In most caucus years, the delegate strength, which equates to the Electoral College, is the only information the Iowa Democratic Party releases. This year, it released more data about the caucus results, including how many people supported each candidate when the caucuses started and how many supported each at the conclusion of the presidential preference picking.

I could do without the Buttigieg as rat meme that's picking up steam of late.

xxp not sure how this matters very much—none of the the remaning caucus states have an especially large # of delegates

also, Fred, Bernie's favorability has hovered at or near the top in the senate for years now, above or alongside Klobuchar and Warren

a lot of ppl don't like DJT, and he's president

iirc Bernie prob has the highest favorability rating of any nationally known politician.

or did? maybe the visibility of a primary run necessarily does damage to that...

Hadrian, I know that. But there's also a lot of data conflicting with that, or at least making it a bit more complicated, at this point, and it's pretty stupid to just ignore it completely. My guess right now is that Bernie is going to win, but it is a bit worrying he didn't do better in the second round, no?

nope

lol

I could do without the Buttigieg as rat meme that's picking up steam of late.

― 🚶‍♂️💨 (Eric H.), Friday, February 7, 2020 6:42 AM (fourteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

rt

one of my friend's husbands is a politician who thinks the real reason we should be worried about a legit buttiggreufug candidacy is his senior adviser lis smith, who seems to have caused all of our problems http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/lis-smith-pete-buttigieg-2020-campaign.html

i still don't really see it but i'm concerned

lol it's early and i think i suggested my friend has multiple husbands

If you can't just choose one...

Fred it would be worrying if we had run-offs but we don't

Bernie is outpolling Trump in the hypothetical general, and I suspect that gap wld widen after nomination when people see how deftly he swats down eggs-in-one-basket "Socialist!" attack... I think most Dem hedging on Bernie has to do with a caricature of his policies and that exposure will mitigate that

Well, we'll see.

Right, but 538 shows about a 1 in 4 chance of nobody getting a majority, and then it's pretty bad if Sanders can't create a compromise? Except on their podcast they speculated that in that case it would probably be Warren, so I guess I should be happy...

He's never faced an opponent like DJT before.

xpost

fwiw the bernie hedging I’m exposed to is based on his inability to prevent his supporters from being public dickheads and the fact that the GOP are absolutely drooling over the prospect of running against him