Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

President Bloomberg would look very much like permanent oligarchy for the USA.

I'm sure I sound like a broken record on this, but getting in a centrist pre-Trump-status-quo dweeb would be a great way to usher in Trump But Worse next time.

True, but so is getting a leftist politician who can't deliver on his promises.

Imo

laser-focused on scaring people about Trump

so, Hillary's argument without the "I'm a woman" half

I'm sure I sound like a broken record on this, but getting in a centrist pre-Trump-status-quo dweeb would be a great way to usher in Trump But Worse next time.

Only if it's Buttigieg or Klobuchar (ie, someone who isn't a straight white man)

Biden and Bloomberg would have the palliative "well it's still a white grandpa so I can just disagree with the policy instead of completing my full transformation into a bigoted reactionary assclown" going for them (which, to be clear, is NOT a reason to vote for them; I'm just pointing out that the American public is looking for an Enemy and right now that Enemy is "not a straight white man")

As if I needed more reasons to hate Bloomberg. (CW: Walker Bragman)

Here's @MikeBloomberg in December 2016 at Oxford explaining how trans rights simply won't fly in the midwest because only the "intelligentsia" can understand why "some man wearing a dress should be in a locker room with their daughter." pic.twitter.com/g6aa8aB1jq

— Walker Bragman (@WalkerBragman) February 6, 2020

put him in a cannon and fire him into the sun

the sight of him drawing a crowd of a couple thousand a couple nights back was worrisome even if I remain unconvinced he has any kind of viable path to the nomination

He should just send campaign literature and a check for $500 to every registered voter.

Mandy McClure, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Democratic Party (I.D.P.), said the party reported the data as provided to it by the precinct caucuses.

“The caucus math work sheet is the official report on caucus night to the I.D.P., and the I.D.P. reports the results as delivered by the precinct chair,” she said. “This form must be signed by the caucus chair, the caucus secretary and representatives from each campaign in the room who attest to its accuracy. Under the rules of the delegate selection process, delegates are awarded based off the record of results as provided by each precinct caucus chair.”

IDP throwing the underlings under the bus, great work

can we get some person with a hat that says "MATH" on it to take care of this

If this isn't the last Iowa caucus...

― Frederik B, Thursday, February 6, 2020 9:07 AM (one hour ago)

sadly, i'd say it's a 50/50 chance right now. we do not learn.

Hilarious that 538 have Bloomberg polling at 9.9% but at 0.3% to actually win the nomination.

it couldn't possibly be a problem with those overseeing the operation. instead, hundreds of people underneath them independently made a bunch of mistakes. replace those underlings with competent people, and there would have been no problems at all.

see? it feels good to throw underlings under the bus!

Hey buddy, this is America, where you can rest assured that anyone in a supervisory or managerial position got there only by pulling themselves up with bootstraps comprised of 100% grade-a competence.

xp the thing about Biden and Bloomberg is that they don’t have much policy to disagree with, and the party with them in office won’t have a coherent identity as it might under Sanders or Warren. And that leaves room for the GOP to rebrand under Tucker Carlson style hateful populism, move left on some economic issues, but make it very clear who benefits and who doesn’t. Especially if the economy eventually tanks.

'if'

Hilarious that 538 have Bloomberg polling at 9.9% but at 0.3% to actually win the nomination.

― Wuhan!! Got You All in Check (Camaraderie at Arms Length), Thursday, February 6, 2020 10:29 AM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Because he's polling at 9% nationally and it's gonna be 40% of the way through the calendar before he can really get any momentum and so the math just don't work to get a majority of delegates even in relatively optimistic scenarios for him. https://t.co/yyWOwwPoHf

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 4, 2020

That seems painfully obvious. People like Chait are so blind.

I'd also venture that his current 9% is not far from where he'll peak -- it's an initial novelty bounce on account of media blitz, not the beginning of momentum

idk, I had precisely the same question. Glad someone asked.

I mean I would also say that the polling is shit, this is also a factor to consider, however if your business is basically talking about polls well um

This passage has me levitating pic.twitter.com/eWCieyRtPw

— Edward Ongweso Jr (@bigblackjacobin) February 6, 2020

haha, or 4th, teetering on the edge of slipping to 5th behind amy klobuchar

The GOP (or at least Trump, who, whether they like it or not, is now essentially the rapidly-disintegrating brain that drives the GOP's basic motor functions) do prefer Biden to be the nominee, yes? Among the viable alternatives, anyway?

they say they prefer Bernie

If they prefer Biden, they've really chosen a weird way of showing it, what with the high profile attempt to discredit him through his son

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said on “Fox & Friends” on Thursday that media is "totally misreporting Iowa” and that Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., won the state's caucuses.

GOP 100% wants Bernie

careful what you wish for

If they prefer Biden, they've really chosen a weird way of showing it, what with the high profile attempt to discredit him through his son

― Frederik B, Thursday, February 6, 2020 11:15 AM (nine minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Kinda underscores my thought process, inasmuch as he's (legitimately or not) the most tarnished of the frontrunners at this point and theoretically the easiest to beat as a result.

Again, though, I don't even know at this point how much intentional GOP political strategy matters going forward. Like I'm sure the party has its own projections and analysis that inform their own preferences, but Trump is in the big boy seat now. BEEP BEEP!

the Nazis absolutely want to run against the Jewish socialist

GOP is run by idiots, not sure how much value there is in divining who they want to face.

Enough is enough. In light of the problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan and in order to assure public confidence in the results, I am calling on the Iowa Democratic Party to immediately begin a recanvass.

— Tom Perez (@TomPerez) February 6, 2020

do we know what he means by recanvass?

i believe he means "do something that will stop bernie being declared the winner today"

presumably gather all the sheets of paper and recalculate the SDEs from the recorded vote counts

"recanvass" is unsurprisingly vague

yeah that's my reading, xp.

https://www.bustle.com/articles/163244-what-exactly-is-a-recanvass-its-not-the-same-as-a-recount-but-it-could-really

i believe he means "do something that will stop bernie being declared the winner today"

bernie is likely to win the nomination the "evil dnc will do anything to stop him" stuff is nagl

god yes I am so sick of seeing that on FB

like do what you want but if you want to win voters i'd suggest cutting out all the conspiracy and outsider shit it won't play if you're serious about uniting the party behind sanders

All Bernie really has to say is "Well, the delegate results are still up in the air, but it looks like we won the most votes--on to New Hampshire."

What I get out of that Perez tweet: "Waiter, I don't like how this was cooked. Take it back to the kitchen and tell them to do it right."

almost certainly the correct subtext of the perez tweet is "this whole rollout has been a clusterfuck that makes Dems look bad but there's no reason for it bc we have a paper trail we can calculate it exactly let's take our time and do just that"

i don't believe there's a conspiracy in iowa, but this is literally the worst possible time for the DNC to throw chum in the water. they've had all week to express concern. pretending that the DNC is doing a good job doesn't serve anyone.

no one including the DNC thinks they're doing a good job. but you know who this will reflect poorly on ultimately? whoever wins the nomination and becomes the head of the party.

I don't understand what a recanvass is *in the context of a caucus*.