Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

fucking morons

If this isn't the last Iowa caucus...

Trumpists ratfucked Iowa precinct reporting hotline

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-06/trump-fans-flooded-iowa-caucus-hotline-top-democrat-says

In light of all the questionable electoral bullshit in 2016, the single most important goddamn thing the people in charge of this thing should've spent the last several years doing is ensuring that the results would be unimpeachable (no pun intended). I mean just what the fuck.

Iowa results, very unimpeachable and very cool

These discrepancies have not gone unnoticed in Bernie circles over the last few days, and have not helped tamp down conspiratorial thinking.

There’s no legal obligation for any of this to work well, right? The Democratic Party (whatever that is, exactly) could decide its nominee based on who can hit the most layups in a minute, or who name the most signatories to the Declaration of Independence. Right?

Pretty much, afaik. One of the bigger concerns, I feel, is utilizing methods of selecting a presidential candidate that don't make your party look like a bunch of hapless clowns.

It's not like these caucus results haven't been shady in the past
There's just been an extra million sets of eyes on the process this time thanks to the app fuckup

Has it ever taken them 5+ days to confirm Iowa caucus results before?

In 2012 the republican caucus was delayed for months iirc

It took 16 days before Santorum was declared winner in 2012 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/04/iowa-second-caucus-debacle-eight-years/

I feel like there should be a name for the kind of mental paradox you find yourself in trying to decide between botched / conspiracy / botched conspiracy

Yeah seriously get over it, press.

Trump outright asked for a do-over of Iowa in 2016 and accused Cruz of cheating. It was forgotten very quickly

the article unperson posted was pretty interesting, not heard of her. definitely *feels* right in some senses but like most of them she seems to dismiss stuff that doesn't fit into her theory.

I like trying to prove that the entire pundit class is entirely useless

I was just about to post the same thing. I am biased because it comports with my belief that there being a material number of swing voters is a myth.

Also, minor lol at her calling the swing voter model the “Chuck Todd theory of American politics”.

agreed. I definitely vibe with the belief that there isn't some group of swing voters out there who are super informed and just carefully weighing the scales between parties every election. that definitely seems like a myth.

I like trying to prove that the entire pundit class is entirely useless

the pundit class are ceaseless in their efforts to prove this hypothesis correct

I hope she's right, of course. That article made me feel better about November than anything I've encountered in the last few weeks. Though it does make me wonder if maybe the person with the best chance of winning, because he can afford to be laser-focused on scaring people about Trump, is Bloomberg.

President Bloomberg would look very much like permanent oligarchy for the USA.

I'm sure I sound like a broken record on this, but getting in a centrist pre-Trump-status-quo dweeb would be a great way to usher in Trump But Worse next time.

True, but so is getting a leftist politician who can't deliver on his promises.

Imo

laser-focused on scaring people about Trump

so, Hillary's argument without the "I'm a woman" half

I'm sure I sound like a broken record on this, but getting in a centrist pre-Trump-status-quo dweeb would be a great way to usher in Trump But Worse next time.

Only if it's Buttigieg or Klobuchar (ie, someone who isn't a straight white man)

Biden and Bloomberg would have the palliative "well it's still a white grandpa so I can just disagree with the policy instead of completing my full transformation into a bigoted reactionary assclown" going for them (which, to be clear, is NOT a reason to vote for them; I'm just pointing out that the American public is looking for an Enemy and right now that Enemy is "not a straight white man")

As if I needed more reasons to hate Bloomberg. (CW: Walker Bragman)

Here's @MikeBloomberg in December 2016 at Oxford explaining how trans rights simply won't fly in the midwest because only the "intelligentsia" can understand why "some man wearing a dress should be in a locker room with their daughter." pic.twitter.com/g6aa8aB1jq

— Walker Bragman (@WalkerBragman) February 6, 2020

put him in a cannon and fire him into the sun

the sight of him drawing a crowd of a couple thousand a couple nights back was worrisome even if I remain unconvinced he has any kind of viable path to the nomination

He should just send campaign literature and a check for $500 to every registered voter.

Mandy McClure, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Democratic Party (I.D.P.), said the party reported the data as provided to it by the precinct caucuses.

“The caucus math work sheet is the official report on caucus night to the I.D.P., and the I.D.P. reports the results as delivered by the precinct chair,” she said. “This form must be signed by the caucus chair, the caucus secretary and representatives from each campaign in the room who attest to its accuracy. Under the rules of the delegate selection process, delegates are awarded based off the record of results as provided by each precinct caucus chair.”

IDP throwing the underlings under the bus, great work

can we get some person with a hat that says "MATH" on it to take care of this

If this isn't the last Iowa caucus...

― Frederik B, Thursday, February 6, 2020 9:07 AM (one hour ago)

sadly, i'd say it's a 50/50 chance right now. we do not learn.

Hilarious that 538 have Bloomberg polling at 9.9% but at 0.3% to actually win the nomination.

it couldn't possibly be a problem with those overseeing the operation. instead, hundreds of people underneath them independently made a bunch of mistakes. replace those underlings with competent people, and there would have been no problems at all.

see? it feels good to throw underlings under the bus!

Hey buddy, this is America, where you can rest assured that anyone in a supervisory or managerial position got there only by pulling themselves up with bootstraps comprised of 100% grade-a competence.

xp the thing about Biden and Bloomberg is that they don’t have much policy to disagree with, and the party with them in office won’t have a coherent identity as it might under Sanders or Warren. And that leaves room for the GOP to rebrand under Tucker Carlson style hateful populism, move left on some economic issues, but make it very clear who benefits and who doesn’t. Especially if the economy eventually tanks.

'if'

Hilarious that 538 have Bloomberg polling at 9.9% but at 0.3% to actually win the nomination.

― Wuhan!! Got You All in Check (Camaraderie at Arms Length), Thursday, February 6, 2020 10:29 AM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Because he's polling at 9% nationally and it's gonna be 40% of the way through the calendar before he can really get any momentum and so the math just don't work to get a majority of delegates even in relatively optimistic scenarios for him. https://t.co/yyWOwwPoHf

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 4, 2020

That seems painfully obvious. People like Chait are so blind.

I'd also venture that his current 9% is not far from where he'll peak -- it's an initial novelty bounce on account of media blitz, not the beginning of momentum

idk, I had precisely the same question. Glad someone asked.

I mean I would also say that the polling is shit, this is also a factor to consider, however if your business is basically talking about polls well um

This passage has me levitating pic.twitter.com/eWCieyRtPw

— Edward Ongweso Jr (@bigblackjacobin) February 6, 2020

haha, or 4th, teetering on the edge of slipping to 5th behind amy klobuchar

The GOP (or at least Trump, who, whether they like it or not, is now essentially the rapidly-disintegrating brain that drives the GOP's basic motor functions) do prefer Biden to be the nominee, yes? Among the viable alternatives, anyway?

they say they prefer Bernie

If they prefer Biden, they've really chosen a weird way of showing it, what with the high profile attempt to discredit him through his son

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said on “Fox & Friends” on Thursday that media is "totally misreporting Iowa” and that Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., won the state's caucuses.

GOP 100% wants Bernie

careful what you wish for