Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

i will not endorse a candidate, the only thing i endorse is posting

Hahaha Bernie is the master of the dark financial arts! pic.twitter.com/mXmpDthmpG

— Doug Henwood (@DougHenwood) February 5, 2020

"Did I say I fight authority? I think you misheard me."

I was born in a Small Town. And I live in a Small Town. But the reality is, Small Town America is disappearing. And @MikeBloomberg will fight for them. https://t.co/fupBZCd9oy via @YouTube #mikebloomberg #johnmellencamp #smalltown

— John Mellencamp (@johnmellencamp) February 5, 2020

#johnmellencamp

Lol

As has been amply demonstrated, no one cares about small town America quite like the obscenely rich.

President Trump’s rising poll numbers have my attention. They are worrisome.

Yes. This. It indicates to me that the sliver of Trump voters from 2016 who haven't joined the cult are beginning the process of reconciling themselves to having a monster of narcissistic depravity in the White House, so long as it's not a Democrat.

As I understand it, they are still relatively low for this point in a first term. It's worrisome but not the end of the world just yet.

Yeah, aiui, 538 has him below where the last six Presidents were this far in: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

I keep thinking about this Chris Murphy thread about the motivations of GOP senators but could equally apply to voters:

6/ Republicans don't love Trump, but they do believe that if they don't stand up to this deep state/media cabal RIGHT NOW, then they set a precedent that will allow this same conspiracy to take down every future Republican president.

— Chris Murphy (@ChrisMurphyCT) February 1, 2020

but only the really truly deeply dumb senators believe there's actually a conspiracy.

He’s not running against them. And his numbers are weirdly, absolutely stable unlike any other president in that summary. There was an anomaly in 2017 and a blip for the first big shutdown, but nothing even for impeachment. It’s clearly purely partisan.

xp

75% of results tallied. Here's we we stand on Democratic caucus results:https://t.co/TidNpeaUFA pic.twitter.com/14IIcTs1ci

— Rachel Stassen-Berger (@RachelSB) February 5, 2020

There will be a minor correction to the last batch of results and we will be pushing an update momentarily.

— Iowa Democrats (@iowademocrats) February 5, 2020

heh

took five minutes between them posting the latest updates and that post

Uhhh

I have some questions about the reliability of these results.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) February 5, 2020

Incompetent

Oh xp lol

scanned as “pushing an update monetarily” freal.

just lol

on the Black Hawk numbers that are circulating rapidly: very evidently, there's been a human error here inputting the "Deval Patrick" & "Tom Steyer" numbers here. (This is very evidently not about manipulating: nothing's more glaringly wrong than giving Patrick 2nd round votes.)

— Taniel (@Taniel) February 5, 2020

Warren reportedly cancelling ad buys in NV and SC.

uh oh. who is reportedly saying that?

this tweet (and a few others) raise the possibility that's she's pulling the money out to put it into NH.

Warren canceling > 350k of TV in NV and SC per, @Ad_Analytics. Full read out here. have asked camp if this is just a cut or they are moving $$ to NH. h/t to colleagues @POLITICO_Steve and @ZachMontellaro for the flag. https://t.co/eciJbm2n2M pic.twitter.com/kd2IIYYwZI

— Alex Thompson (@AlxThomp) February 4, 2020

Very cool to see all the assholes in the replies prematurely gloating.

I just donated to Warren. Thank you ActBlue.

the way to thank actblue is by tipping on the donation iirc

I’ve tossed them about $10 total, I think

I tipped them, too.

I’m worried the two lanes are coalescing on a single candidate each quicker than expected (biden wtf?), and the centrist lane is is just straight up bigger. Was previously counting on a more drawn out biden Buttigieg battle. If it comes down to Bernie Buttigieg I am not confident about what would happen.

upped warren as well

Same here.

bloomberg consistently above 10% in the polls now

nothing makes sense

No one's attacking him, he's got his face plastered on screens everywhere, he's the embodiment of op-ed page's hard-on for 'bridging the partisan divide' and smart business-like competence and blah blah blah.

he is name that americans know, but dont know his faults well enough, and he's running $1 B of ads.

Maybe indicative of something, maybe not, but Steyer underperformed his polling in Iowa, getting 1.8% of the first-alignment vote vs. 3.6% in polls. So did Bloomberg (0.1% vs 1.2%). It seems at least plausible that polls for ad-driven candidates won't translate 1:1 into votes.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) February 6, 2020

ppl like to watch tv xp

2016 was supposed to teach you that tv is expensive but not that effective at driving turnout but u know...tv!

bernie might take iowa

worried the two lanes are coalescing on a single candidate each quicker than

Iowa is mad white, it’s looking like more ppl voted for Bernie but more land voted for Buttigieg, and Pete seems to have focussed a lotta ground game there (I’ve not tracked him but investing in the bullshit app is a tell?). Voters have rejected Biden many times before, going back to 1988. A large proportion of the humans who voted for Buttigieg preferred someone else, and shrugged & picked him when told nah. It’s only one state.

I don’t like that he did this well, but it doesn’t necessarily say anything about other states. It’s good that Warren’s in third, it’s good that white-ass corn folk weren’t roused by Biden, and picking who looks like a younger and more progressive choice ahead of him (especially in second) bodes well for the same voters & their neighbours going for Warren or Bernie in November.

xxxxp

what the FUCK, how is this not immediately disqualifying

timely reminder that Pete isn’t eating chicken wings in this photo. it’s a Cinnabon that he’s torn up into little pieces to hold in his paws and nibble on, like a rat would do pic.twitter.com/6rkkmhT9Tz

— illy bocean (@IllyBocean) February 5, 2020

maybe he just had a dental appointment

I think Buttigieg is a lot easier than Biden to beat. Especially for Sanders. Then it could all end at sc and super tuesday

LOLZ @ 538

https://i.imgur.com/6xgPH2y.jpg

#no-one2020

We were slightly surprised, however, at how much emphasis the media put on SDEs as opposed to the popular vote metrics.

HMMMMM

What proportion of Facebook campaign ads do others living in the US get? I'd say I get about four from Sanders to every two from Steyer and one from Bloomberg. I never get anything from Warren or any of the others.

I saw one from Bloomberg last week but other than that, zero on social media. I already follow Warren and Bernie.

I just get ads for some weird reclining-desk-chair that costs $7000

Just wanna remind everybody that I was here first on the very first day of the first 2020 primary thread

And Buttigieg! What about my man Buttigieg?!

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, February 1, 2017 4:11 PM (three years ago) bookmarkflaglink

I agree with Nate Silver that he's very unlikely to be the nominee but I saw something there dammit

oh there's something there alright, but none of it's good