Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

correct

but it’s OK because the Democratic candidate is going to win

Josh Marshall on the question of Iowa turnout:

As I noted below, President Trump’s rising poll numbers have my attention. They are worrisome. But there’s been another critique floating around since last night and that is that it’s a bad sign for Democrats that turnout at the Iowa caucuses was just on par with 2016 rather than the high numbers from 2008. (The Post’s Karen Tumulty makes the argument here.) I don’t have to remind you 2008 turned out better than 2016. But I’m pretty confident that this conventional wisdom is wrong. Normal turnout in Iowa is just fine in terms of what it might say about November. Here’s why.

Turn out is driven by people’s investment in the outcome of that election. But let’s focus on what that mean – that election, in this case the primary election. One thing I noticed in all the caucus coverage last night was that universally people were saying they were happy to support any of the candidates in November.

We’ve all seen that Democrats consistently and overwhelmingly say their first priority is a candidate who can beat President Trump. Certainly Sanders especially but also Warren have very enthusiastic supporters. But my sense at least is that Democrats are mainly champing at the bit to get a chance at voting out President Trump. You see this in poll after poll – not just the toplines but the internal measures of Democratic enthusiasm and focus.

I feel confident about this because I expected there to be normal turnout for just this reason. It didn’t make sense to me that commentators expected 2008 type results rather than 2016 type results. For most Democrats the first, second and probably third priority is ending President Trump’s presidency. By that measure, this level of turnout strikes me as unsurprising and not worrisome.

if Bernie loses to Trump, the largest issue on the table is how to keep the organization going. OFA (Obama for America, then Organizing for America, Organizing for Action) notoriously tried to spin off into a group to keep public support for the policy agenda engaged but ended up diminishing or becoming basically a DNC subgroup they had no idea what to do with

if grassroots organizing groups aren't continually engaged, and helping to boost downticket races not just in 2020 but every election following, then we're back to 2009 and 2013

^^^absolutely otm

Contrariwise if Biden (or whoever) loses to Trump, the "center" will be blamed forever ("See? We should have run a candidate who excites the base and offers change!").

yeah, when a centrist loses it's always because of a particular flaw about that particular candidate. Dukakis was doofy, Al Gore was an exaggerator, John Kerry was a flip flopper, Hillary was...perfect, but Bernie wounded her.

I don’t like mayor cheat, but it is cool that rural Iowa seems to have embraced a gay candidate.

Of course the only reason a leftist candidate ever loses is bc of moderate perfidy

I’m just joking—I don’t think he cheated

And I do honestly find it heartening that he did so well in rural Iowa. Rural America isn’t as homogenous and reactionary as people think.

Isn't that a good thing, though? Caucuses are awful

― Frederik B, Wednesday, February 5, 2020 8:57 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

Yes, I agree! Tbh, the only worthwhile thing about caucuses is the notion of viability and a system where people's second or third choices matter. But you could also do this with ranked-choice voting.

these are only my ~feelings~ but idk seems like the arbitrary "importance" grafted onto the iowa caucus by the media has been pretty diminished by this total fuck up

― american bradass (BradNelson), Wednesday, February 5, 2020 9:00 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

Right, that's what is darkly funny to me about it. Since the delegate count is so small, it's entirely about a media narrative: who has ~*momentum*~ coming out of Iowa, who exceeded or fell short of expectations, etc. The fact that votes are being counted slowly over a period of days is only a big deal inasmuch as it severely impairs the ability to craft those narratives.

what are these far left candidates that the Dems are running & losing with?

^^^never learned the lessons of 1972

the one thing we can agree on is that the Joementum has stalled

The lesson of 2016, otoh, is that a leftist should also not compete in the primary or should drop out at the earliest opportunity or something bc they are responsible if the moderate loses. xp

imo the long term effect of 2016 is that nobody wants to hear anything from or about Hillary Clinton ever again

yeah, it's been 4 years. What's she been up to?

2016 race really needed more women candidates, but here we are

I like sanders but these kind of conversations make me wish this primary didnt have the baggage of 2016. Thats why i flirted with the idea of a warren endorsement last year.

i will not endorse a candidate, the only thing i endorse is posting

Hahaha Bernie is the master of the dark financial arts! pic.twitter.com/mXmpDthmpG

— Doug Henwood (@DougHenwood) February 5, 2020

"Did I say I fight authority? I think you misheard me."

I was born in a Small Town. And I live in a Small Town. But the reality is, Small Town America is disappearing. And @MikeBloomberg will fight for them. https://t.co/fupBZCd9oy via @YouTube #mikebloomberg #johnmellencamp #smalltown

— John Mellencamp (@johnmellencamp) February 5, 2020

#johnmellencamp

Lol

As has been amply demonstrated, no one cares about small town America quite like the obscenely rich.

President Trump’s rising poll numbers have my attention. They are worrisome.

Yes. This. It indicates to me that the sliver of Trump voters from 2016 who haven't joined the cult are beginning the process of reconciling themselves to having a monster of narcissistic depravity in the White House, so long as it's not a Democrat.

As I understand it, they are still relatively low for this point in a first term. It's worrisome but not the end of the world just yet.

Yeah, aiui, 538 has him below where the last six Presidents were this far in: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

I keep thinking about this Chris Murphy thread about the motivations of GOP senators but could equally apply to voters:

6/ Republicans don't love Trump, but they do believe that if they don't stand up to this deep state/media cabal RIGHT NOW, then they set a precedent that will allow this same conspiracy to take down every future Republican president.

— Chris Murphy (@ChrisMurphyCT) February 1, 2020

but only the really truly deeply dumb senators believe there's actually a conspiracy.

He’s not running against them. And his numbers are weirdly, absolutely stable unlike any other president in that summary. There was an anomaly in 2017 and a blip for the first big shutdown, but nothing even for impeachment. It’s clearly purely partisan.

xp

75% of results tallied. Here's we we stand on Democratic caucus results:https://t.co/TidNpeaUFA pic.twitter.com/14IIcTs1ci

— Rachel Stassen-Berger (@RachelSB) February 5, 2020

There will be a minor correction to the last batch of results and we will be pushing an update momentarily.

— Iowa Democrats (@iowademocrats) February 5, 2020

heh

took five minutes between them posting the latest updates and that post

Uhhh

I have some questions about the reliability of these results.

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) February 5, 2020

Incompetent

Oh xp lol

scanned as “pushing an update monetarily” freal.

just lol

on the Black Hawk numbers that are circulating rapidly: very evidently, there's been a human error here inputting the "Deval Patrick" & "Tom Steyer" numbers here. (This is very evidently not about manipulating: nothing's more glaringly wrong than giving Patrick 2nd round votes.)

— Taniel (@Taniel) February 5, 2020

Warren reportedly cancelling ad buys in NV and SC.

uh oh. who is reportedly saying that?

this tweet (and a few others) raise the possibility that's she's pulling the money out to put it into NH.

Warren canceling > 350k of TV in NV and SC per, @Ad_Analytics. Full read out here. have asked camp if this is just a cut or they are moving $$ to NH. h/t to colleagues @POLITICO_Steve and @ZachMontellaro for the flag. https://t.co/eciJbm2n2M pic.twitter.com/kd2IIYYwZI

— Alex Thompson (@AlxThomp) February 4, 2020

Very cool to see all the assholes in the replies prematurely gloating.

I just donated to Warren. Thank you ActBlue.

the way to thank actblue is by tipping on the donation iirc

I’ve tossed them about $10 total, I think

I tipped them, too.

I’m worried the two lanes are coalescing on a single candidate each quicker than expected (biden wtf?), and the centrist lane is is just straight up bigger. Was previously counting on a more drawn out biden Buttigieg battle. If it comes down to Bernie Buttigieg I am not confident about what would happen.

upped warren as well