Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

say the Dems pick off Senate seats in ME, CO, AZ, and KS and don't lose AL - they still need Manchin's or Jones' vote just to get to a majority.

And they need to be willing to jettison the filibuster

lol map

the filibuster is a separate issue

xps

Manchin being the 51st vote matters little if you need 60.

but you don't need 60 to pass budgets, reconcile bills etc

idk I agree the filibuster is bullshit and needs to go - and Schumer has publicly floated the possibility of axing it - but I'm not sure he could really get a majority to back it, that would be a tough battle.

there's obviously no way any Dem president, no matter who it is, gets 60 votes on anything.

my post was word salad, sorry. i'm saying that "sanders may struggle to win manchin votes" doesn't convince me of much. if you're more likely to win over manchin, it's probably because you suck. and if all we want is a democratic president who can get manchin's vote to "get things passed," the simplest expedient would be to have mitch mcconnell change parties and nominate him - joe will be there!

and even if you do strip out the filibuster, there's ol' Manchin as the linchpin of any majority votes.

xps

That is true, but the Democrats will be a failure if they gain a majority and don't pass significant new legislation. There's much more beyond budgets that needs to happen very quickly or we are for real doomed.

the trick is finagling some way to make everything part of the budget!

and if all we want is a democratic president who can get manchin's vote to "get things passed,"

idk what universe you guys live in where the Dems don't need Manchin's vote.

like you want Bernie to be president so that he can... accomplish very little/next to nothing and yell at Manchin for 4 years? OK, cool plan you have there.

Someone should be yelling at Manchin for 4 years though

Seriously, put his feet to the fire. Also, a larger majority is conceivable in 2022.

Obama’s desire to compromise with shitty Senators is how he squandered 2009-10. Fuck Manchin, he can toe the line.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, January 31, 2020

are we forgetting when Obama could magically pass legislation without a filibuster- proof majority

the alternative seems to be getting biden so that he can.... pass only such things that are shitty and conservative enough to meet the sniff test of Joe Manchin? like at that point we might as well just talk about the Manchin presidency. what are some of the great and exciting pieces of legislation that happen in that scenario but couldn't possibly happen with a progressive president?

It's a fun Friday afternoon because nothing will happen legislatively without the Senate; otherwise, President Sanders/Biden/Warren will issue executive orders like Trump and Obama do -- which will still have significant effect on on our lives.

Shakey for Biden! AARP card and extra malarkey are in the mail.

Yglesias makes the case that Sanders would be most effective in changing the course of foreign policy in a less militaristic direction which requires little Congressional involvement.

also climate action is foreign policy

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/4/11/18306132/bernie-sanders-filibuster-budget-reconciliation-medicare-60-votes

article is from apr, and im sure most of yall already know, but sanders' work-around wrt to the senate is through budget reconciliation

We really need some senatorial candidates running on the platform of abolishing the Senate

That's a Republican position

It is? I've seen it most heavily espoused by people on the left for the last decade at least.

Based on the fact that they're going to acquit Trump, I'm taking the stance that the Republican Party only sees the Senate as a body of lapdogs for whomever our elected emperor is and not an independent legislative body with its own mission and powers.

article is from apr, and im sure most of yall already know, but sanders' work-around wrt to the senate is through budget reconciliation

this workaround requires Manchin's vote

I feel like a broken record

to change the tune: Sanders would unequivocally be better than Biden on foreign policy

President Sanders/Biden/Warren will issue executive orders like Trump and Obama do -- which will still have significant effect on on our lives.

this is true, but Sanders can't deliver on his signature goals (M4A, Green New Deal etc.) this way

right, article not intended to be a refutation of that particular pt (manchin sucks) xp

to change the tune: Sanders would unequivocally be better than Biden on foreign policy

― Οὖτις, Friday, January 31, 2020 8:57 PM (one minute ago)

otm

if we're looking at which candidate can generate enough base turnout now and in 2022 (when there's a bunch of vulnerable GOP seats up for grabs) i still think thats sanders

Let me get this straight: Shakey is advocating that we let Joe Manchin decide who the Dem nominee is?

This is dumb. I wouldn't let Joe Manchin decide which mine shaft to drop him down.

No one disagrees that you need Manchin and Jones’s votes. The issue is how to get them. The concern trolling about his ability to ‘handle’ them implies that a more hale fellow, well-met, could sweet talk him. That’s nonsense. He’s either on board or he’s willing to torpedo progressive legislation under any President - so what does it matter?

Or, as Doc Casino alluded, you buy him off with bad legislation. So, again, what’s the point of worrying about him? You can only make any given issue worse buying him off or letting him determine the agenda.

There’s some irony here because last week, post-Rogan, it was about whether Bernie would compromise on gender reassignment surgery if Manchin held up M4A on that front.

either those are very intentional misreadings of my posts or ... no, I have no other explanation

this is true, but Sanders can't deliver on his signature goals (M4A, Green New Deal etc.) this way

― Οὖτις, Friday, January 31, 2020

No one will deliver signature goals without the Senate is the point, therefore a lot of "Morning" Joe croakings about socialism amount to fear mongering the donor class.

Let me get this straight: Shakey is advocating that we let Joe Manchin decide who the Dem nominee is?

This is dumb. I wouldn't let Joe Manchin decide which mine shaft to drop him down.

― We're jumping on the road with @Nickelback this summer! (PBKR),

You're reading in bad faith on purpose, right?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-31/sanders-rivals-biden-for-top-spot-nationally-campaign-update

fuck American politics, basically

this is not concern trolling, and I resent it being characterized as such.

I will entertain any and all theories about how Bernie will get Machin's vote to pass M4A though. If your overriding reason for voting for Bernie is healthcare, you have to wrestle with the mechanics of passing legislation. We all know Biden won't even try for M4A. But if Bernie can't deliver on his signature promise(s), that will make him (to a significant degree) an ineffective President. This dampens my enthusiasm for him, it's as simple as that. Being excited and acting like he's going to deliver on these things without considering *how* they will be done is weirdly myopic.

xps

If those are misreadings, then what is the argument? That you can (but Sanders would not) compromise on legislation to get him to pass it (and this is a good thing), or that there is a level of ass-kissing that would get Joe Manchin to pass M4A as proposed?

Let me get this straight: Shakey is advocating that we let Joe Manchin decide who the Dem nominee is?

This is dumb. I wouldn't let Joe Manchin decide which mine shaft to drop him down.

― We're jumping on the road with @Nickelback this summer! (PBKR),

You're reading in bad faith on purpose, right?

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, January 31, 2020 4:14 PM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

I thought we were discussing choosing a nominee based on who will work best with Joe Manchin.

I will entertain any and all theories about how Bernie will get Machin's vote to pass M4A though.

How will Warren?
How will Biden get him to pass progressive legislation?

That is why it's concern trolling.

Warren will have him murdered

Because your core argument is actually "as long as Joe Manchin is a/the decisive vote, nothing good can happen" - so, yep, doesn't matter who the President is, does it?

If Warren has a plan for gulags, I'll switch camps.

there is a level of ass-kissing that would get Joe Manchin to pass M4A as proposed?

I suspect there might be - it probably involves a lot of bribery, essentially (eg throwing $$$ at coal miners) - but Bernie is already well on his way to burning that bridge, and shows no willingness to accommodate Manchin or respect him. In fact, he's done quite the opposite and actually threatened Manchin with going directly to the voters of West Virginia to undermine him (which is both a stupid thing to say in public *and* a really stupid tactic that would v likely backfire).

How will Warren?

Warren hasn't publicly feuded with Manchin afaik

How will Biden get him to pass progressive legislation?

he won't, because he won't even try. But he could probably get Manchin's vote on some kind of Obamacare v.2.0 using some malarkey.

great

isn’t there a chance the senate changes composition? in which case manchin isn’t this kingmaker figure?

Coolidge was the last Republican to have a filibuster-proof Senate Majority IIRC, it's weird how this is never one of the concerns for them.

if the dems can keep all their current seats (tough to keep AL) and win AZ, CO, ME and not lose seats to gubernatorial appointments, they have 50 plus the VP if they win the white house in 2020. so manchin's vote is not entirely necessary.