Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

New CBS/YouGov poll in Iowa this morning:

Sanders 26%
Biden 25%
Buttigieg 22%
Warren 15%
Klobuchar 7%
Everyone else 1% or less

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) January 26, 2020

klobmentum can't be stopped

a reminder of who rules

Corporate mercenaries, oil and gas shills, spooks, pro-Israel flacks, influence peddlers, bundlers, billionaires, weapons contractors, Pharma lobbyists, union-busters, health insurance industry execs, bank directors—a real who’s who of everything rotten in the Democratic Party. https://t.co/YFKJ1qDbEB

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) January 26, 2020

Suburbia: washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-extend-their-dominance-of-the-suburbs-with-an-eye-to-2020/2019/11/06/faa0a73a-00af-11ea-8bab-0fc209e065a8_story.html

Suburbia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VCqAjYO3NM

the (potential) voters unperson is describing may include white men but I’ll go out in a limb and posit that it’s mostly not

I'm a white man and it describes me, but I'm also the only white person in my apartment building and it describes all my neighbors, too.

https://i.imgur.com/dQoije3.png

but yes, things are changing quickly:

Between 1970 and 2000, the share of African Americans living in suburban Atlanta increased from 27 percent to 78 percent; while in greater Washington D.C it rose from 25 percent in 1970 to 82 percent. Those trends have continued to accelerate, according to the Lacy’s research. There are two parts to this African-American suburbanization. On the one hand, it is the result of low-income African Americans being pushed out of gentrifying parts of cities. And on the other, it involves the black middle class choosing to move to more upscale suburbs. Taken together, they add up to considerable shift.

But it is not just African Americans who are headed to the suburbs: other minority groups are, too. Demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution has documented the dramatic growth of “melting pot suburbs,” where minorities constitute 35 percent or more of the population. As result, today’s suburbs no longer look much like the lily-white places portrayed on 1950s and 1960s sitcoms. Whites comprised less than ten percent of growth of the suburban population in America’s 100 largest metros between the years 2000 and 2010.

who can afford cities?

looking at that convention nominee list, I can only imagine how much Barney Frank hates Sanders and his supporters; so that'll be a great Rules Committee.

yeah, eff you Barney

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/19/barney-frank-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-green-new-deal-would-be-a-loser-against-trump-in-2020.html

Mahlon Mitchell is on the rules committee. Head of the Wisconsin firefighter's union, finished second (admittedly a distant second) in the Dem governor primary in 2018. I think he's got a real political future and I'm glad to see him getting DNC uptake.

Morbs, did you check the date on that link?

The Des Moines Register has endorsed Warren

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/editorials/caucus/2020/01/26/elizabeth-warren-president-democrat-iowa-caucuses-des-moines-register-editorial-board-endorsement/4562157002/

The biggest problem with a Green New Deal is defining it simply, clearly and believably, because if you define it too broadly and vaguely the Republicans and FOX News will supply the missing details by defining it nonstop as "taking away your hamburgers" and other fearsome nonsense.

ugh "policy wonk." People really hate knowledge, don't they? I need to add that phrase to our rolling thread.

xpost

Republicans and Fox News (and the Koch Brothers network) will fight it to the death with disinformation and confusion no matter how clearly it's defined.

that doesn't mean that the details or how they are communicated aren't important. those that are listening in good faith and want a better world will appreciate it. but it's a mistake to tailor a message in an attempt to stymy the fox news crowd.

I see nothing wrong with Green New Deal as slogan. Dems have often sucked at pithiness; when this came out I thought, "Finally."

I dunno if someone linked to this article about Sanders fans published a day ago:

The meme shared by Walters, the retired Michigan factory worker, was just one of dozens of anti-Warren images circulating recently and one of several that portrayed her as the second coming of Clinton, whose own bid to become the first female president in 2016 ended in division and defeat for Democrats. The version that Walters reposted reached about 500,000 Facebook users on 50 groups since it began circulating on Facebook in September, according to Davis.

The Sanders and Warren campaigns are promising a detente after Warren accused Sanders of saying in a private meeting that a woman couldn’t win the White House, and Sanders denied having done so. But the memo hasn’t been received by denizens of the digital world. Sanders supporters who are active on Facebook described in interviews growing disenchantment with other candidates and rising concern that the system might be rigged against their candidate.

Already, the pro-Sanders crusade has spawned groups calling for protests at the party’s national convention in July should Sanders not emerge as the nominee. #BernieOrVest is their rallying cry, echoing the Yellow Vest demonstrations that have roiled France. In December, an activist wore one of the high-visibility vests for a picture with Sanders, which he proceeded to upload to a group, claiming falsely that the senator had endorsed their movement.

what a shitty hashtag

Right?

And I realize Russians are involved too but still.

xposts

the actual biggest problem with the green new deal is the same biggest problem that faces anyone trying to do anything about climate change: human beings are not good at evaluating risk when they perceive it as a future concern (especially politicians hesitant to introduce costly programs that likely won't see results until well beyond the next election cycle). when those risks begin turning into tragedies, and when the scale of the problem is so enormous,
the inclination is to turn to the most prominent and powerful protectors and actors: the government and corporations, who effectively control ($$) and operate (as contractors) our government. i strongly believe that the "solution" they'll both turn to will be geoengineering. it's a fate both foreseeable and very sad.

so in short: the GOP and fossil fuel industry will lie and cheat no matter what. be aware of them, but don't formulate a campaign in an attempt to appease them. it is impossible. the most important battle will be trying to drag corporations and the government away from the technocratic allure of geoengineering. in a vacuum, which sounds more appealing to a politician: a society-altering program to remake the energy, transportation, and manufacturing sectors at great cost, or investing some more money in tech so that eventually some company can try to "solve It" at a later date? that's the real enemy

xp adam: KKK Duke is from East Baton Rouge, 70 miles away. I'm presently renting a 2 Br in a well off white-flight suburb but one with 3 synagogues within a mile, near enough to be of aid to my 76 yr old father. The precinct is purple, but its in a red congressional district.

It works well as a context-free slogan, but in that case your candidate should treat it as one, as Nixon did with "Law and Order" (which was one of the best slogans for its time and target audience ever delivered in my lifetime - however much I detested it).

xp KM’s take is so otm strategically imo- you won’t change them and half or more will become strong marketers developers promoters of the geoengineering they will claim is DESPERATELY NEEDED AND ESSENTIAL AND TOTALLY SAFE.

From my standpoint, stratospheric sulfate geoengineering is cheap compared to decarbonization, and has modest short term harms (though its just a plaster over a festering wound). The oceans still die from adidification, and here's the huge risk of discontinuation shock (stop injecting sulfates for any reason, and global climate reverts to the flying off the cliff state within 5-10 years).

There will be a 10-year run up to any effective geoengineering approach, and the fossil/right wing are so invested in denial that it won't get seriously engineered or started in earnest until the 2050s-60s. By then the developed world will face the frequent crop failures and hunger that afflicted the developing world in the prior decades, and most fossil fuels will be in natural decline (with a lot of unmined coal on the sidelines). People will gladly vote for it when they're worried about their children starving.

i strongly believe that the "solution" they'll both turn to will be geoengineering. it's a fate both foreseeable and very sad.

i give it no play at all but when i do environmental ethics and my students get to bits on geoengineering they are quite eager about its prospects, by their usual indifferent standards. especially any of the ones with scientific or technical background

sanpaku david duke went to the louisiana state house from district 81 which at that point included east jeff parish. a seat held subsequently by david vitter and steve scalise lol. either way it was a shitty dig and i apologize

Morbs, did you check the date on that link?

yes, I saw it, I assume Frank believes the same today bcz he's a badass POS

Ah! Politician retired years ago, said some things in spring 2019.

and Fox News (and the Koch Brothers network) will fight it to the death with disinformation and confusion no matter how clearly it's defined.

A read through references to the press in the climate change thread this month should provide a handy preview for the US.

On the Media also did a round-up of the Murdoch papers' malfeasance in Australia

xp -- didn't eichenwald claim there were extremely damning binders full of oppo on bernie that somehow have not materialized yet, despite damaging (if not yet damning) opposition research materializing at this point in the primary on his opponents

purely as a theoretical matter, there could conceivably be something damning in the past of almost anyone who's lived over seven decades, but speculating on its existence or what it might be is no more significant than playing a parlor game rn. besides, "extremely damning" is in the eye of the beholder, as witnessed by Access Hollywood and Stormy Daniels.

“Bernie stole cable” was my favorite piece of 2016 oppo.

I'm sure there were ppl who thought that video of him singing in a Russian sauna would be his undoing

There was also something about trying to dump Vermont’s toxic waste in a Hispanic neighborhood in Texas

that actually happened, though, I saw it, he was wearing an Uncle Sam hat

OH COME ON pic.twitter.com/Atpex8vyUK

— Secular Talk (@KyleKulinski) January 27, 2020

you love to see it

come on!

the FIELD?

you know the field of basketball

I feel him. Pretending to care about sports can be a lot of work.

the classic act we all know and love of dribbling a basketball on grass

which goper gaffed on hoops reference several years ago? Cruz?

https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2016/04/27/ted-cruz-indiana-republican-primary-basketball-ring

the FIELD?

― El Tomboto, Sunday, January 26, 2020 10:59 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Reminded me of this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNx_gU57gQ4

The dumb thing is that he could have just said "I'm not a big sports guy; I know Kobe's name but I can't even tell you what sport he played. He meant a lot to so many, his life impacted mine and I don't know a football from a soccer ball" and everyone would have been like "finally, you are not being a robot"

but he would have deprived us this classic "sportsball" goof 'em up. you love to see it.

I keep imagining Cruz watching this on TV and yelling "TELL THEM ABOUT THE RINGS" in his living room

"Admittedly, my confusion may arise from the fact that in a number of languages I speak and even in English dialects outside North America, a football IS a soccer ball." 2xp

Every time I see Buttigieg for a second I think he's Jimmy Fallon

I just had a vision of Buttigieg Slow Jamming the News and cranked up the meter a little on my ambient desire for death