Your next 2020 Democratic presidential primary thread: Now we're serious

why even make predictions?

new "i hate politics" board description

Contrary to vast amounts of observable banter in most political discussions, politics is not about predicting election results, but about governance, especially how tax revenues are generated and distributed. But governance, especially how tax revenues are generated and distributed, is an opaque topic, subjected to the influence of thousands of highly varied interests and opinions, making it extremely messy and uncertain to discuss or predict. Election horse-race banter is more direct and emotionally satisfying.

so its less like predicting sports and more like predicting the weather

Hey they said it would rain this afternoon and it didn't weather forecasters are clueless amirite

when my elbow hurts I know there a Biden vote squall coming

"solidarity with the hotties for bernie movement" tweets just floated into my timeline and 1) why, and 2) where are the hotties, all I've seen so far is a parade of dudes solidly in the 4 - 6 range

Worst parade ever.

Sounds more like a pub crawl?

sounds like my Saturday night

I'd rather that we didn't memory-hole the fact that Nate Silver's "30% chance for Trump to win" was significantly higher than every other estimate (that I know of, and I was paying a lot of attention). And some of it was because he was factoring in the unprecedentedly large number of people who were still answering "Don't know" up to the last minute.

I mean, I suspect they were largely "Do know, don't like the answer", but if you assumed that they'd actually toss a coin or whatever on the day, that's a reasonable basis for Nate Silver's statement.

marianne out

her campaign is suspended, but her energy will live on in us all

I do think she meant well, which I'm not sure is something I can say of a couple candidates

it's always so heartwarming when a candidate means well

pretty tired of ppl being all 'bloomberg is spending $10m on a super bowl ad! imagine if he used that money to support state/local candidates instead!'

bloomberg very obviously doesn't give a shit about the democratic party or its candidates, he just wants to be president (and/or ensure the next president keeps taxes low); stop with the naivete

plus, if he really wants to support state/local candidates, he probably could dig up another $10M from the couch cushions

hey the list of current candidates (13) is shorter than the list of withdrawn candidates now (16)

btw considering that like half the remaining democrats would turn 80 in office, it would be nice to know their vp picks *before* the primaries/caucuses

oh well

via DJP:

https://www.theroot.com/mayor-pete-s-invisible-black-police-1840727624

Over the course of the last month, The Root and The Young Turks have received internal documents, examined formal complaints, and interviewed former officers who outlined a pattern of racial discrimination against black police officers in South Bend. The alleged discrimination spanned the course of multiple police chiefs, captains, and supervisors. The only common denominator is that every black complainant mentions one name: Pete Buttigieg.

mookieproof, I am very disappointed in you for not phrasing that as "So Long, Marianne."

"So Long, Marianne" is trending.

Then it's a waiting game to see whether we can make Klobucharrividerci happen.

― Yeets don't fail me now (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, January 2, 2020 4:50 PM (one week ago) bookmarkflaglink

bloomberg very obviously doesn't give a shit about the democratic party or its candidates

plus, if he really wants to support state/local candidates, he probably could dig up another $10M from the couch cushions

I am not supporting Bloomberg for the nomination, but come on, dude literally did exactly that less than a year ago in Virginia. OK he only spent $2.5m but that was all it took to flip the statehouse, spelling a likely end to gerrymandering there, expanded voting rights, etc.

I don't like predicting but hell here's a prediction. Suppose it's Elizabeth Warren against Trump. A lot of people here seem to think Bloomberg would be indifferent in such a contest. I think Bloomberg would spend a buttload of money to help Warren win.

if what he really in his heart of hearts wants to do is support another, actually viable candidate I can think of some more useful things to be doing than running for president

xp i was just pointing out that paying for his super bowl ad and supporting other candidates isn't mutually exclusive

And I'm just pointing out that good evidence they're not mutually exclusive is that Bloomberg is already doing it! I feel like I keep seeing this "WHY ISN'T BLOOMBERG PUTTING HIS MONEY INTO DOWNBALLOT RACES THAT ARE CRITICAL FOR DEMS" and... he is! And I would be shocked if he doesn't continue to do so in 2020!

PS I absolutely did not know this but apparently Tom Steyer has given more money to liberal candidates than anybody. 50% more than Bloomberg, 3x as much as Soros.

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2019/07/tom-steyer-enters-2020presidential-field/

This stuff is important! It doesn't mean either of these guys should be President, it just means it's not right to say they're egomaniacs who don't care about liberal causes, only themselves.

well they're still probably egomaniacs but so am I

NEW #IOWA POLL 🚨🚨🚨

Sanders: 20% (+5)
Warren: 17% (+1)
Buttigieg: 16% (-9)
Biden: 15% (-)
Klobuchar: 6% (-)
Yang: 5% (+2)
Booker: 3% (-)
Steyer: 2% (-1)
Gabbard: 2% (-1)
Bloomberg: 1% (-1)
Not sure: 11% (+6)

wait til they see that Bloomberg Super Bowl ad

Man if Warren or Bernie would just drop and and endorse the other one, they'd win in a landslide. Of course Warren is "Warpig Warren" according to my lefty friends *eyeroll*

that seems like a fallacy to me; it's not just simple addition

yes

not -trying - to be a narc but may i suggest attributing where the poll comes from when you post one?

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2020/01/10/iowa-poll-2020-bernie-sanders-lead-iowa-caucus-president-election/4426492002/

I'm sure it wouldn't be only simple addition, but I'm guessing it would still be pretty significant.

Des Moines Register is widely seen as the most accurate poll of Iowa. I was skeptic, because while I can see Sanders winning, I can't see Warren doing that well there anymore, but could be true!

Man if Warren or Bernie would just drop and and endorse the other one, they'd win in a landslide. Of course Warren is "Warpig Warren" according to my lefty friends *eyeroll*

no reason to harp on "one of them should drop out!" before a single vote is cast

If Bernie and Warren finish as the top two in Iowa, you know the media will play it as "the party has moved too far left for the rest of the nation". Yeah, those crazy far lefties of Iowa.

wait til they see that Bloomberg Super Bowl ad

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, January 10, 2020 5:18 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

this made me lol

Weird how this is framed as "Bernie or Warren" - he's clearly running ahead of her, why wouldn't you just say "if Warren would drop out and endorse..."
― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Friday, January 10, 2020 6:48 PM (fifty-four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I could see this if he'd consistently been doing much better than her, but she had a higher national polling average for much of the fall, and she's not behind him by much these days. They've been trading places behind Biden.

Citation needed

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Bret Stephens: To say Sanders is unelectable is indefensible

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/436/943/93f.jpg

never get tired of hearing white guys point out that women should just endorse bernie

lol at the idea that Sanders being the nominee would make the Dems a "socialist party". how much fuckin money does this guy get paid again

in other news, Yang apparently did not make the cut for the next debate (though - sigh - Steyer did)

As NPR just pointed out, the timing of the impeachment trial is "a gift" to the non-senators in the race.

Seeing how the leading candidates have been campaigning in Iowa and NH for, oh, ten months or more, you'd think the voters there would have some clues about them already. That is, if they cared to clue themselves in at all.

This is a big story.

Former vice president Joe Biden is far and away the favored candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination among black Americans, boosted by his personal popularity, his service in the Obama administration and perceptions that he is best equipped to defeat President Trump, according to a national Washington Post-Ipsos poll.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) occupies second place in the Democratic field among African American voters, easily outdistancing the remaining candidates in the race. Sanders is leading among black voters under age 35, replicating his success with younger white voters in other national polls. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) runs third.

The survey finds meager support for former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is among the leaders in polls in the predominantly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire but stands at 2 percent among Democratic black voters nationally. A lack of familiarity with him and concerns about his experience and sexual orientation appear to be contributing to his current standing. Buttigieg has said that as African Americans get to know him, he will gain more support, but the poll undercuts that assertion. He receives only 3 percent support among black voters who are familiar with him.

Worth stressing:

Many younger African Americans, however, are drawn to Sanders rather than to Biden. Terrell Askew, 33, a community organizer in Baltimore, said that in 2016, he believed Sanders was the candidate with the best policies but felt then that the Democratic Party wasn’t ready for someone like Sanders. Today, Sanders is his preferred choice.

“I prefer his track record, particularly around housing, which is a major issue,” Askew said. “And the conversations that he’s had around debt, student debt and things like that. And addressing the economic disparities between the poor and wealthy individuals in our country.”

He sees problems that weren’t addressed aggressively enough by Obama and wonders whether Biden would be more of a status quo candidate, rather than someone who would take on conditions in the country that he thinks contributed to Trump’s victory four years ago.

hasn't most of this been known for months?