US threaten Iran with pre-emptive strike

I gathered from what sanpaku wrote yesterday that he was speculating (or reporting others' speculations) as to how what happens *in the event of escalation*

iow what the already-banked measures are should neither side stand down

It seems to me that if indeed this week leads to eviction of US troops from Iraq, that is in fact a clear victory for Iran’s regime, and a major shift in the balance of power -and direction of sympathies- in the region. Neither continued sanctions nor the loss of Suleimani diminish that fundamental shift (were that shift to happen... I have my doubts).

Also, though I'm not as immersed in Shia culture as say Juan Cole is, losing a talented general and gaining a martyr may not be a poor trade.

The very fact that Soleimani rose to the top of the IRGC officer corps says a lot about the IRGC: that its a meritocracy. That's far from the situation in most Arab armies. He picked his own subordinates (and successors), and after years of activity in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, had a lot of seasoned options. We're not looking at a army that relies on luck in developing officers, Iran has its own post graduate staff colleges just like the big boys.

I'm not saying their talent pool is dry, I'm saying Soleimani was a remarkable general and organizer whose talents Iran will miss. If you read about his accomplishments it's hard not to be impressed by his experience, skills, connections and accomplishments. Humans, especially exceptionally gifted and experienced ones, are not just replaceable cogs.

It just bothers me to set a precedent that the President can unilaterally assassinate members of foreign governments we don’t like absent Congressional approval.

like Obama did?

Obama unilaterally assassinated American citizens, let's be clear. (I'm not sure about members of foreign governments)

point taken! and I guess Bin laden doesn't count either since we are formally at war with Afghanistan (iirc)

i don't think obama droned any high-ranking officials in countries we weren't at war with. i think the obama drone policy (which trump has continued and in some ways made worse) was fucked up and entirely deserving of the criticism it received, but the potential precedent trump has set here is pretty horrifying, basically gives any president carte blanche to start shit with other countries whenever they feel like it.

Bin Laden also not a member of a foreign government. More like a wanted criminal.

Bin Laden also not an Afghan, or a member of the Afghani government, or even killed in Afghanistan - he was killed in Pakistan.

gah yes sorry, just thinking out loud (badly)

I retract my skepticism, this is a bad precedent

At least his friends Putin and the Saudis stick to killing their own citizens abroad.

which is also what Obama did

Obama didn't drone strike any US citizens on US soil afaik

I think the bumbling assassins Putin sent after Skripal killed two British citizens instead

One unfortunate woman. It should be pointed out that the UK has killed a few of its own citizens in Syria - or got the Americans to do it for them.

Surely the only difference is that Trump is the only one to have been so crass and public about it?

No, going after a general is pretty different. As is going after a journalist like the Sauds did. Actually, most assassinations are different from one another.

^^^otm

conflating all these things is stupid

Oh sorry - I meant the US & members of foreign governments, cos the idea this guy was a precedent is hilarious.

US has typically been more clandestine/covert about it

Well yeah but that doesn’t change the reality of the situation, like Trump is a disgrace but it’s just screaming the quiet part loud. It’s not something completely out of the blue.

Performing a military strike to assassinate the general of a nation-state is new afaik. If that's not an act of war, I really don't know what is. Prez should not have sole authority to order that.

William Blum, the author of Killing Hope: US Military and CIA Interventions Since World War II, points to a litany of American sins from invasions, bombings, overthrowing of governments, assassinations to torture and death squads. “It’s not a pretty picture” is his blunt conclusion.

The CIA was deemed to have run so amok in the 1960s and 70s that in 1975 the Church committee investigated a numerous attempted assassinations on foreign leaders including Lumumba, Rafael Trujillo of the Dominican Republic, Vietnam’s Ngo Dinh Diem and, of course, Castro. In the fallout, Gerald Ford banned US involvement in foreign political assassinations.

The ban didn’t last long. Since 1976 the US has continued to be engaged in, or accused of, efforts to eradicate foreign leaders.

Ronald Reagan launched bombing raids in 1986 targeting Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi. As recently as two years ago North Korea alleged that the CIA tried to assassinate its leader, Kim Jong-un.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/us-political-assassinations-history-iran-suleimani

https://i.imgur.com/Y8hfJ8y.jpg

The target is unusual, but the overall context and specific actions are not new. Presidents have had and used the authority to unilaterally engage in military shenanigans for over 50 years, including violating the sovereignty of foreign governments, making targeted strikes, deploying troops etc.

xp

Trump is a disgrace but it’s just screaming the quiet part loud

^^^this

good call on Gaddafi, if that isn't an assassination attempt w/o formal declaration then idk what is

also agree w/ "screaming the quiet part loud"

eisenhower ordered the cia to take out lumumba, tho of course it wasn't made public at the time

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/eisenhower-ordered-congo-killing-711217.html

2 rockets hit Baghdad's Green Zone. One near US embassy. No casualties or injuries reported yet but this likely means we're not in the clear yet.

Yup.

Re the “quiet part”: see e.g., General René Schneider of Chile, killed October 1970. He was understood to be the principal obstacle to an eventual military coup against the new Allende government, and the trail leads back to Nixon/Kissinger/CIA.

xxp

Katyushas. Some militia hothead, of the sort that Soleimani had a history of talking down.

This past Friday, I encountered some Iraqi militia propaganda, with video taken through a telescope or rifle scope of US Marines peering from behind their hesco barriers at the embassy. We're not out of the woods, and Iran needn't have anything to do with it.

Goes without saying, that if we had functioning international law, Kissinger would have spent the last 3-4 decades behind bars.

BBC WS are currently spreading conspiracy theory nonsense themselves about the plane crash with some self-styled air crash investigation expert saying the accident is suspect. Sounds like bollox to me.

In eyewitness video of the crash, there appear to be engine flames and glowing "parts" falling off the jet as it spirals down.

Would I be surprised if a Tehran air-defense unit got jumpy? Not terribly. These are emotional times in Tehran.

Sanpaku is your implication that planes that are suffering catastrophic malfunction of their own accord wouldn’t fall apart

This winky jet fuel can’t melt steel jet bs is beneath even you surely

Here's the footage. As someone who has a morbid fascination with airplane crash footage, I don't recall many appearing to be aflame during their descent since the 2000 Concorde crash.

#Breaking First footage of the Ukrainian airplane while on fire falling near #Tehran pic.twitter.com/kGxnBb7f1q

— Ali Hashem علي هاشم (@alihashem_tv) January 8, 2020

What are some things you don’t have a morbid fascination with

Slaughterhouses, professional sports, Broadway musicals, poetry nights, its a long list.

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/plane-crash-us-officials-confident-iran-shot-down-passenger-jet-bound-for-ukraine-today-2020-01-09-live-stream-updates/

please no...

The Ukrainian passenger jet that crashed shortly after takeoff from Tehran on Wednesday was accidentally shot down by an Iranian anti-aircraft missile, western security officials believe.

jesus

whoa.

what could this mean? that iran accidentally shot down a plane, thinking it was a missile? (many flights that were scheduled to fly over iran were canceled that day, to avoid that same risk)

if I may play Mordy here, that strikes me as a non-possibility, although idk how missile defence works tbh

would seem like a hell of a boner to shoot a plane that had just taken off from your own airport, but yeah, can't say i know any better.

ouch that feels like a zing xp

no malice intended :)