US threaten Iran with pre-emptive strike

hmmm makes u think

Just a few years ago, CNN was praising Qassem #Soleimani for being the driving force behind the defeat of ISIS.

Today they call him a “terrorist” and expect you to believe them. pic.twitter.com/dfzlMktYdj

— Sarah Abdallah (@sahouraxo) January 7, 2020

good thing we stopped that imminent attack on americans, right guys?

Turns out even when you kill the Mastermind someone else can come up with the idea to fire rockets at stuff

https://www.anarchistcommunism.org/2020/01/07/neither-washington-nor-tehran/

"Liberal" MSNBC guest Gen. McCaffery: "Our only good response at this point is an overwhelming dominance of air and naval power that can be employed against the Iranian homeland" pic.twitter.com/SMDZ9SRm2n

— Andrew Lawrence (@ndrew_lawrence) January 8, 2020

If this is the same Gen. McCaffrey who ordered the “turkey shoot” massacre of retreating Iraqi troops at the close of the Gulf War then I’m not surprised.

Still...

This is the kind of person that gets a hard-on looking at Picasso’s Guernica

sorry folks, the ratings are in. in terms of the general internet's reaction to the bombings last night, we all received a score of F-. We're all going to die now. not because of iran, but because of our bad score

if you dig into the splits you can see that ILX actually performed quite well, receiving a median B+ rating from the panel, with most deductions related to me whining about twitter and sanpaku inciting panic under the guise of certainty about the near future. but ILX did much better than most other sectors of the internet. regardless, because of the total score, we are all going to die now

fuckface to address nation in a few minutes

i've been on record about this for some time tbf xp

he can't come to the podium right now, has to flush 15 times

BREAKING: The Pentagon has deployed a small team of emotional support golden retrievers to patrol the building this morning. God Bless America.

— Meghann Myers (@Meghann_MT) January 8, 2020

*distant eagle cry*

whatever Trump says, I'm sure the gist will be "I'm a great leader who has done a brilliant job".

I tried watching his statement but he is spacing his words out so weirdly and sounds out of breath, gist before I switched off is that they’re not pursuing further action at this time?

yes, sounds like no escalation at this time. good news.

fuckin phew

'Last week we eliminated the world’s top terrorist'

If you say so, Donny.

he's not wrong but whatever

god he is so zonked out

this bullshit fucking talking point that we "gave" them money is so untrue and pathetic

how is it untrue? bc we "owed" it to them? we still "gave" it to them.

it was their money

we were holding their money ,we gave it back

there it is, the news. he wants NATO to step in

he also, in passing, repeated the lie that "100% of ISIS" was destroyed, which immediately led to darting eyes on the military officials behind him

this was like a Vic Berger edit in real time

he is wrong, actually

but mena mena mena

I didn't hear Trump's statement, but if there will be no further US escalation, then we can all thank the Iranian leadership for devising a face-saving escape hatch that both sides could make use of to wriggle out of what has been shaping up as a catastrophic disaster. The announcement by the Revolutionary Guard that if the USA did not retaliate against yesterday's missile strike they would also refrain from further escalation was the equivalent of issuing clear and simple instructions to a six year old, but it worked.

clear and simple instructions have never been our six year old in chief's strong point; worried he's gonna push the issue once impeachment starts grinding

yes, sounds like no escalation at this time. good news.

Don't tell me Sanpaku was wrong :(

btw i also really love the War Nerd, I think he's smart, funny, good writer and often gets perspectives and ideas you can't find in the mainstream press. but he's not a level-headed somber thinker - i wouldn't rely on him for predictions about what is going to happen next.

Indeed.

the perspectives and ideas were fine. their presentation chafed a bit. tugging on our heart strings before suggesting we buy oil options felt like bad form.

Cute dogpile, but everything I said above has been said by smarter Iraq observers than myself.

US can't win an escalation with Iran, because it can't occupy much of it. Iran can't "win" an engagement with the US, but they can block Hormuz for months at low cost. They certainly haven't forgotten the skills used in Lebanon 2006 or during the 2011 RQ-170 capture.

At any rate, provided Trump's ego has been stroked and there's no further military escalation, this episode has been a huge win for Iran. Iraq's government is on a path towards evicting US forces; Iran gets a reprieve from its domestic fuel price riots, its ramping up uranium enrichment, and it looks like the sane/prudent ones in the international community.

They may succeed in evicting US forces from Iraq but it's far from a clear victory for them. For one, sanctions remain (and are being increased), and they've lost their most talented general and the most popular member of their regime. They may have a temporary reprieve from rioting, but the conditions that caused the riots remain.

It’s a relief to hear you were right all along Sanpaku

How does the past week change Europe's INSTEX plans? Germany, France, Britain, Finland, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden are all onboard as of November 30. US diplomacy has been a failure here.

The proximate cause for the riots were reductions in fuel subsidies. Its something Iran needed to do decades ago.

Also, though I'm not as immersed in Shia culture as say Juan Cole is, losing a talented general and gaining a martyr may not be a poor trade.

I gathered from what sanpaku wrote yesterday that he was speculating (or reporting others' speculations) as to how what happens *in the event of escalation*

iow what the already-banked measures are should neither side stand down

It seems to me that if indeed this week leads to eviction of US troops from Iraq, that is in fact a clear victory for Iran’s regime, and a major shift in the balance of power -and direction of sympathies- in the region. Neither continued sanctions nor the loss of Suleimani diminish that fundamental shift (were that shift to happen... I have my doubts).

Also, though I'm not as immersed in Shia culture as say Juan Cole is, losing a talented general and gaining a martyr may not be a poor trade.

The very fact that Soleimani rose to the top of the IRGC officer corps says a lot about the IRGC: that its a meritocracy. That's far from the situation in most Arab armies. He picked his own subordinates (and successors), and after years of activity in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, had a lot of seasoned options. We're not looking at a army that relies on luck in developing officers, Iran has its own post graduate staff colleges just like the big boys.

I'm not saying their talent pool is dry, I'm saying Soleimani was a remarkable general and organizer whose talents Iran will miss. If you read about his accomplishments it's hard not to be impressed by his experience, skills, connections and accomplishments. Humans, especially exceptionally gifted and experienced ones, are not just replaceable cogs.

It just bothers me to set a precedent that the President can unilaterally assassinate members of foreign governments we don’t like absent Congressional approval.

like Obama did?

Obama unilaterally assassinated American citizens, let's be clear. (I'm not sure about members of foreign governments)

point taken! and I guess Bin laden doesn't count either since we are formally at war with Afghanistan (iirc)