A New Thread fot the Current Israel/Palestine/Lebanon mess

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/story.html?id=1fe460c8-896b-4305-9e22-5687da508fff&k=69689

It will take several days to mount a full invasion of Lebanon. We would not expect major operations before the weekend at the earliest. If the rocket attacks are taking place, however, Israel might send several brigades to the Litani River almost immediately in order to move the rockets out of range of Haifa. Therefore, we would expect a rapid operation in the next 24-48 hours followed by a larger force later.

At this point, the only thing that can prevent this would be a major intervention by Syria with real guarantees that it would restrain Hezbollah and indications such operations are under way. Syria is the key to a peaceful resolution. Syria must calculate the relative risks, and we expect them to be unwilling to act decisively.

Therefore:

1. Israel cannot tolerate an insurgency on its northern frontier; if there is one, it wants it farther north.

2. It cannot tolerate attacks on Haifa.

3. It cannot endure a crisis of confidence in its military

4. Hezbollah cannot back off of its engagement with Israel.

5. Syria can stop this, but the cost to it stopping it is higher than the cost of letting it go on.

It would appear Israel will invade Lebanon. The global response will be noisy. There will be no substantial international action against Israel. Beirut's tourism and transportation industry, as well as its financial sectors, are very much at risk.

there's no justification for the rocket attacks, but again unless there's something i'm missing, why would anyone in their right mind settle in this part of israel knowing the history?

It's more that if anything it will push the Lebanese government back towards the Syrians.

xpost

or the Lebanese people back to the pro-syrian parties.

Another thought is that syria starts bussing over veterans of Iraq if it (or Assad) feels threatened). Israel should be very reticent about invading southern lebanon it's going to be a lot worse than last time. Terrorist/Geurilla tactics have been taken to another level since the IDF last marched through Lebanon.

no, it isn't.

ihttp://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/maps/is-map.gif

israel is a young country, despite the thousands of years of oppression of the jewish people. i don't see it being quite comparable to the hundreds of years and years of institutional racism and slavery that conjured up the new orleans' milieu. people choose to move to israel. and yeah some people choose to move to new orleans, but a lot of the victims of katrina were people who had never been anywhere else in their lives, and had no way to escape - not to mention a government that would actually evacuate them like the israelis did with gaza.

xpost - i'm not talking about haifa, since afaik that's a new development with the hezbollah's new missle.

Hezbollah having the Katyusha rocket is not a new development at all though. Is there some other *new* missile that I missed in the reports?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thunder_1

The fog of war begins to set in, I guess.

most of which, to be fair, did not take place in the Middle East nor was it instigated by Muslims. Prior to this whole horrible-misapplication-of-a-colonialist/zionist-fuckup Jews had it pretty good in the Middle East, at least compared to how they were treated in Europe.

Not for want of trying.

the epic of human history in one sentence!!!

Hezbollah's rocket attack on the port city of Haifa was its deepest such strike into northern Israel yet. No injuries were reported in Haifa, home to 270,000 residents and a major oil refinery 30 miles south of the border. Still, the Israeli ambassador to the United States, Daniel Ayalon, called the attack "a major, major escalation."

"Those who fire into such a densely populated area will pay a heavy price," said David Baker, an official in the Israeli prime minister's office.

and how is beirut not densely populated again?!??

being Prime Minister of England vs. 6 million dead

What's the endgame for the Israeli government? Because it sure look like they want to create the next generation of suicide bombers, hezbollah recruits and generally a whole lot of people who think they're cunts. Cos they're acting like them.

Hurting - is there anything where you might conceivably concede that the Israeli government have acted in a slightly regrettable way?

x- post - Letting in party with armed wing vs having entire government as political wing of army in a militarised state C/D?

Uh, try reading like half my fucking posts on this thread.

Do you mean to suggest that that's how Israel's government operates? I suggest some basic reading:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel#Government