bojo is king, brexit is on, stuff is fvcked, tomorrow starts here -- new govt new thread new battle

Is there anything more pathetic than hiring a comedian to insult members of the public, then cringing and apologising when it turns out you accidentally attacked a celebrity?

— Dan Davies (@dsquareddigest) December 21, 2019

Peston hired Baddiel to "clap back at the trolls", which he did by mocking Martyn Ware (of Heaven 17) for having gone bald, as 63 year old men sometimes do.

— Dan Davies (@dsquareddigest) December 21, 2019

if alphie was a populist lad he wouldn't be falling in behind RLB and refusing to countenance an alternative*

anyway, off to the rather excellent-looking museum of neoliberalism this afternoon #biggerpicture

*i am not dead set against her but i am keen to see how she launches her challenge and who she has helping her, and the messages she has, as she has never seemed a convincing politician to me, for all her good principles, all of which all of us share

xps to both comrade alphabet and anvil: none of this would have been as successful without rock-solid Brexit and no deal both being talked up as the only “Leave” options. I have spoken to people I know who are vaguely following politics and they have asked “what do these deals actually mean”? I’ve said before that I only really follow most developments via RTÉ and not this country’s own media.

What’s a “convincing” politician to you LJ?

What is it you need convincing of exactly? For what purpose? Is the choice of leader going to determine how you vote at the next GE? xps

as she has never seemed a convincing politician to me, for all her good principles, all of which all of us share

― imago, Sunday, 22 December 2019 bookmarkflaglink

You don't have any principles whatsoever.

You are just the saddest cunt on this forum

no spoilers please I await the top 77 rollout in the new year

Obviously I'm going to vote Labour whatever and whoever's in charge short of a Blue Labour takeover but I'm expressing skepticism about RLB as someone who can win over the electorate. My mind isn't closed towards her but reading it as 'oh so if she's in charge you won't vote Labour' is ridiculous - of course I will!

gyac - People did want the WAB to go through in enough numbers that cut through very badly for Labour at constituency level but yes Labour weren't energetic enough to counter on what the deal would've meant, in clear terms of circumstances.

You are just the saddest cunt on this forum

― imago, Sunday, 22 December 2019 bookmarkflaglink

Is this what your book group is like gyac?

I've already said that Rayner, the deputy-elect, is much more convincing to me as a public figure as it stands.

And I am telling you have no core principles. You voted Labour by pushing tactical voting and spent the day of election reverence for Lord Umunna. Fool somebody else.

gyac - People did want the WAB to go through in enough numbers that cut through very badly for Labour at constituency level but yes Labour weren't energetic enough to counter on what the deal would've meant, in clear terms of circumstances.

The Umunna stuff was mostly to wind you up ffs

You are just the saddest cunt on this forum

― imago, Sunday, 22 December 2019 bookmarkflaglink

Is this what your book group is like gyac?

Can you please explain what “convincing” means though?

Please send an invite xp

I don’t think my book group could handle you tbh

The Umunna stuff was mostly to wind you up ffs

― imago, Sunday, 22 December 2019 bookmarkflaglink

Didn't work out did it?

And I was only in favour of pro-LD tactical voting in like three seats

Convincing = has a natural, positive charisma, doesn't have continuity-Corbyn like a millstone around the neck, idk, like I say I can be swayed, this is just as irrational as any member of the electorate - I am running her through the 'not sure I like her' test - she has to be able to win people over

You are wasting your time xp

Can we try making this thread not about imago?

And I am telling you Lab was very clear. If your number one issue is leaving the EU you don't vote for a 2nd ref with a choice to Remain. Hence the votes for the BXP that squeezed the Lab majorities.

It wasn't clear to people who's number one issue wasn't leaving the EU but didn't get why Labour had a policy of respect the result and then a completely difference policy later on and wondered well if they flipflopping around on this what else are they going to flip-flop on. Hence the staying home instead

I think “charisma” is a bit of a red herring tbh, maybe only Rayner hits that mark, but would be vulnerable in other ways. Starmer and RLB are both lacking in this, but I only read this criticism in the mainstream of RLB.

If anything ppl are talking up Starmer for the opposite, vague air of professionalism, untouched by “ideology” or “factionalism”

Charisma is Jess Phillips' middle name.

Anvil - was there an analysis of people who stayed home in those constituencies that went blue or are you just making it up?

xps where “ideology” in this context means that they’re projecting onto him, as per fucking usual, and they can’t do that with RLB, hence painting her as a purist.

xp

From Adam Ramsay's OD piece

In 49 of the 56 seats Labour lost to the Tories, turnout was down. One Labour activist, who had spent Election Day in an outer London commuter town reminding traditional Labour supporters to vote, told me that huge numbers of people who had backed the party in the past chose not to take part this time. In the constituency he was campaigning in, Milton Keynes North, turnout was down by 3.3%. The Conservatives got fewer votes than in 2017, but their majority increased, also by 3.3%.

I'd argue that any Labour mp that helped the Tories welfare bill through parliament gives more of a fuck about ideologies than ppl!

"Jess Phillips is ok but the rumours of her Brummie Stalinist backers worry me, RLB represents a clear break with the framing of the past, cherry picking the popular parts of the last two manifestos while reaching out to those disenfranchised by Corbyn's wayward approach. Everyone on my welding course is quietly impressed"

try out a variant on your local football forum.

Anvil - was there an analysis of people who stayed home in those constituencies that went blue or are you just making it up?

Just making it up innit the dog ate my homework

Yes but that could be the Brexit position or a cold December or Corbyn as one of the IRA boys finally cutting through?

Maybe if BXP wasn't running those people might've also stayed home

XP to Nashwan

General election 2019: Bury North[6]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative James Daly 21,660 46.2 +1.8
Labour James Frith 21,555 46.0 -7.6
Liberal Democrats Gareth Lloyd-Johnson 1,584 3.4 +1.5
Brexit Party Alan McCarthy 1,240 2.6 +2.6
Green Charlie Allen 802 1.8 N/A
Majority 105 0.2 N/A

General election 2019: Keighley[4][5][6]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Robbie Moore 25,298 48.1 +2.0
Labour John Grogan 23,080 43.9 -2.6
Liberal Democrats Tom Franks 2,573 4.9 +2.5
Brexit Party Waqas Khan 850 1.6 N/A
Yorkshire Party Mark Barton 667 1.3 N/A
SDP Matthew Rose 132 0.3 N/A
Majority 2,218 4.2 N/A
Turnout 52,600 72.3 -0.1
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +2.3

Turnout 46,841 68.1 -2.8
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +9.1

These do? Just picked two at random and they contradict each other anyway. Don't think its all that straightforward and there's nothing to suggest there are one to one mappings here. People who didn't vote in 2017 may have voted in 2019 for example

I pasted that wrong, the second Turnout and Conservative Gain should be directly below Bury North, not in Keighleys

"Jess Phillips is ok but the rumours of her Brummie Stalinist backers worry me, RLB represents a clear break with the framing of the past, cherry picking the popular parts of the last two manifestos while reaching out to those disenfranchised by Corbyn's wayward approach. Everyone on my welding course is quietly impressed"

try out a variant on your local football forum.

― anvil, Sunday, 22 December 2019 13:59 (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

lol!

i really wouldn't worry about jess phillips tbh - her 'charisma' is flagrant self-interest that the labour membership will not stand for

yvette cooper is the one we've got to be wary of. she's got a book out you know

Most people don't know who RLB is and the ironic thing is that she could and should actually be very media friendly as a candidate but the anointed successor thing is likely to be a millstone around her neck even if she does win - opponents are taking advantage of the silence to define her before she's had the chance to define herself. That Hattersley article is a case in point.

that senile cunt is still fighting militant

Anvil - on Bury North yes there is a -3% turnout but I wouldn't rush to read dithering into it, or lack of confidence in the manifesto. BXP as +2.5 though...

It can certainly be for other reasons this is also true.

Also it doesn't say if Jane voted Lab last time and Bxp this time, or if she stayed home this time, and previously non-voting Viv came out this time for the x in the box

Also LDs getting a bigger swing than Bxp in Keighley shows it not as straightforward everywhere as is portrayed

For all the talk of Labour's strong ground game, where I live I didn't see Labour campaigners once but Tories 5 or 6 times. The Vote Con signs are fucking everywhere, I mean from all over the estate where I live to even miles outside the constituency half way to Leeds in Morley there are Mark Eastwood signs. I have seen literally a handful of Sherriff ones. Something wasn't right there, perhaps they concentrated on the posh white side of the constituency which would have been a major error imo.

at the height of my "election mania" I was taking latex cooking gloves out with me so I could launch mudballs and clumps of muddy leaves at tory signs. I threw a brick at one and instead of knocking it of the lamppost it twisted it to a more optimum angle for drivers to see it!

LOL

yvette cooper is the one we've got to be wary of. she's got a book out you know

I hope the book goes well* because she has no chance of getting anyhwere near the leadership of the Labour Party. Literally the least likely of the names mentioned so far.

*I don't really.

I don’t think lack of name recognition is a hurdle for any of the candidates. I’d guess Cameron wasn’t a household name to much of the electorate before he became leader and then he had five years and the aftermath of the 2008 crash to set him apart from the incumbent. No reason that RLB, Lammy, Phillips or anyone else can’t do the same given the fallout from Brexit.

I never really liked Corbyn as a person that much, although he did grow on me somewhat. But RLB is one of my tribe - it feels much more personal when she gets attacked.