bojo is king, brexit is on, stuff is fvcked, tomorrow starts here -- new govt new thread new battle

I think the framing of the policy as South Korea does why not us was an issue. It wasn't framed enough as this is like infrastructure investment needed that we would benefit from, etc.

Re: Dan Davies. Wouldn't a Brexit that leads to a sharp increase in inflation also lead to rate rises to keep it down?

There were some vigilant hacks arguing that S Korean broadband isn't strictly free blah blah like how UK isn't 100% racist just 98.4% racist actually

These are not problems that can be solved internally within Labour, whoever is leader and whatever can be done to prevent it will take years and years.

Media disinformation is a fact of life. We can still give them less to work with. The Brexit policy was unclear, and even if you think it was.clear it was promising something unknown. Another referendum isn't an end, its a step...but to where? Nobody knows.

Dithering is worse than dishonesty. At least a liar knows which direction they're planning to go in, and there's some certainty in that. Almost all the negativity around lack of clarity was on this one issue, but it spilled out into everything else. Can I trust you to do any of the other things you say you're going to do? Thought you were one of the populist lads, not another triangulator. This wasn't the case in 2017, media disinformation existed then too. But its a magnifier. The sitting on the fence is....not good. Populists don't sit on fences and they don't propose years of pointless meetings

Labour's Brexit policy was clear to enough people that voted leave lol. That's why they switched to BXP.

if you aren't clear yourself, other people will decide for you, as they did

And I am telling you Lab was very clear. If your number one issue is leaving the EU you don't vote for a 2nd ref with a choice to Remain. Hence the votes for the BXP that squeezed the Lab majorities.

Is there anything more pathetic than hiring a comedian to insult members of the public, then cringing and apologising when it turns out you accidentally attacked a celebrity?

— Dan Davies (@dsquareddigest) December 21, 2019

Peston hired Baddiel to "clap back at the trolls", which he did by mocking Martyn Ware (of Heaven 17) for having gone bald, as 63 year old men sometimes do.

— Dan Davies (@dsquareddigest) December 21, 2019

if alphie was a populist lad he wouldn't be falling in behind RLB and refusing to countenance an alternative*

anyway, off to the rather excellent-looking museum of neoliberalism this afternoon #biggerpicture

*i am not dead set against her but i am keen to see how she launches her challenge and who she has helping her, and the messages she has, as she has never seemed a convincing politician to me, for all her good principles, all of which all of us share

xps to both comrade alphabet and anvil: none of this would have been as successful without rock-solid Brexit and no deal both being talked up as the only “Leave” options. I have spoken to people I know who are vaguely following politics and they have asked “what do these deals actually mean”? I’ve said before that I only really follow most developments via RTÉ and not this country’s own media.

What’s a “convincing” politician to you LJ?

What is it you need convincing of exactly? For what purpose? Is the choice of leader going to determine how you vote at the next GE? xps

as she has never seemed a convincing politician to me, for all her good principles, all of which all of us share

― imago, Sunday, 22 December 2019 bookmarkflaglink

You don't have any principles whatsoever.

You are just the saddest cunt on this forum

no spoilers please I await the top 77 rollout in the new year

Obviously I'm going to vote Labour whatever and whoever's in charge short of a Blue Labour takeover but I'm expressing skepticism about RLB as someone who can win over the electorate. My mind isn't closed towards her but reading it as 'oh so if she's in charge you won't vote Labour' is ridiculous - of course I will!

gyac - People did want the WAB to go through in enough numbers that cut through very badly for Labour at constituency level but yes Labour weren't energetic enough to counter on what the deal would've meant, in clear terms of circumstances.

You are just the saddest cunt on this forum

― imago, Sunday, 22 December 2019 bookmarkflaglink

Is this what your book group is like gyac?

I've already said that Rayner, the deputy-elect, is much more convincing to me as a public figure as it stands.

And I am telling you have no core principles. You voted Labour by pushing tactical voting and spent the day of election reverence for Lord Umunna. Fool somebody else.

gyac - People did want the WAB to go through in enough numbers that cut through very badly for Labour at constituency level but yes Labour weren't energetic enough to counter on what the deal would've meant, in clear terms of circumstances.

The Umunna stuff was mostly to wind you up ffs

You are just the saddest cunt on this forum

― imago, Sunday, 22 December 2019 bookmarkflaglink

Is this what your book group is like gyac?

Can you please explain what “convincing” means though?

Please send an invite xp

I don’t think my book group could handle you tbh

The Umunna stuff was mostly to wind you up ffs

― imago, Sunday, 22 December 2019 bookmarkflaglink

Didn't work out did it?

And I was only in favour of pro-LD tactical voting in like three seats

Convincing = has a natural, positive charisma, doesn't have continuity-Corbyn like a millstone around the neck, idk, like I say I can be swayed, this is just as irrational as any member of the electorate - I am running her through the 'not sure I like her' test - she has to be able to win people over

You are wasting your time xp

Can we try making this thread not about imago?

And I am telling you Lab was very clear. If your number one issue is leaving the EU you don't vote for a 2nd ref with a choice to Remain. Hence the votes for the BXP that squeezed the Lab majorities.

It wasn't clear to people who's number one issue wasn't leaving the EU but didn't get why Labour had a policy of respect the result and then a completely difference policy later on and wondered well if they flipflopping around on this what else are they going to flip-flop on. Hence the staying home instead

I think “charisma” is a bit of a red herring tbh, maybe only Rayner hits that mark, but would be vulnerable in other ways. Starmer and RLB are both lacking in this, but I only read this criticism in the mainstream of RLB.

If anything ppl are talking up Starmer for the opposite, vague air of professionalism, untouched by “ideology” or “factionalism”

Charisma is Jess Phillips' middle name.

Anvil - was there an analysis of people who stayed home in those constituencies that went blue or are you just making it up?

xps where “ideology” in this context means that they’re projecting onto him, as per fucking usual, and they can’t do that with RLB, hence painting her as a purist.

xp

From Adam Ramsay's OD piece

In 49 of the 56 seats Labour lost to the Tories, turnout was down. One Labour activist, who had spent Election Day in an outer London commuter town reminding traditional Labour supporters to vote, told me that huge numbers of people who had backed the party in the past chose not to take part this time. In the constituency he was campaigning in, Milton Keynes North, turnout was down by 3.3%. The Conservatives got fewer votes than in 2017, but their majority increased, also by 3.3%.

I'd argue that any Labour mp that helped the Tories welfare bill through parliament gives more of a fuck about ideologies than ppl!

"Jess Phillips is ok but the rumours of her Brummie Stalinist backers worry me, RLB represents a clear break with the framing of the past, cherry picking the popular parts of the last two manifestos while reaching out to those disenfranchised by Corbyn's wayward approach. Everyone on my welding course is quietly impressed"

try out a variant on your local football forum.

Anvil - was there an analysis of people who stayed home in those constituencies that went blue or are you just making it up?

Just making it up innit the dog ate my homework

Yes but that could be the Brexit position or a cold December or Corbyn as one of the IRA boys finally cutting through?

Maybe if BXP wasn't running those people might've also stayed home

XP to Nashwan

General election 2019: Bury North[6]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative James Daly 21,660 46.2 +1.8
Labour James Frith 21,555 46.0 -7.6
Liberal Democrats Gareth Lloyd-Johnson 1,584 3.4 +1.5
Brexit Party Alan McCarthy 1,240 2.6 +2.6
Green Charlie Allen 802 1.8 N/A
Majority 105 0.2 N/A

General election 2019: Keighley[4][5][6]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Robbie Moore 25,298 48.1 +2.0
Labour John Grogan 23,080 43.9 -2.6
Liberal Democrats Tom Franks 2,573 4.9 +2.5
Brexit Party Waqas Khan 850 1.6 N/A
Yorkshire Party Mark Barton 667 1.3 N/A
SDP Matthew Rose 132 0.3 N/A
Majority 2,218 4.2 N/A
Turnout 52,600 72.3 -0.1
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +2.3

Turnout 46,841 68.1 -2.8
Conservative gain from Labour Swing +9.1

These do? Just picked two at random and they contradict each other anyway. Don't think its all that straightforward and there's nothing to suggest there are one to one mappings here. People who didn't vote in 2017 may have voted in 2019 for example

I pasted that wrong, the second Turnout and Conservative Gain should be directly below Bury North, not in Keighleys

"Jess Phillips is ok but the rumours of her Brummie Stalinist backers worry me, RLB represents a clear break with the framing of the past, cherry picking the popular parts of the last two manifestos while reaching out to those disenfranchised by Corbyn's wayward approach. Everyone on my welding course is quietly impressed"

try out a variant on your local football forum.

― anvil, Sunday, 22 December 2019 13:59 (ten minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

lol!

i really wouldn't worry about jess phillips tbh - her 'charisma' is flagrant self-interest that the labour membership will not stand for

yvette cooper is the one we've got to be wary of. she's got a book out you know

Most people don't know who RLB is and the ironic thing is that she could and should actually be very media friendly as a candidate but the anointed successor thing is likely to be a millstone around her neck even if she does win - opponents are taking advantage of the silence to define her before she's had the chance to define herself. That Hattersley article is a case in point.

that senile cunt is still fighting militant

Anvil - on Bury North yes there is a -3% turnout but I wouldn't rush to read dithering into it, or lack of confidence in the manifesto. BXP as +2.5 though...