Ne'er get thee stitched til Booris be ditched: UK General Election 2019

Problem is that labour aren’t likely to get Brexit done any day soon either, whatever timescale they’re bandying about

We probably need to come to terms with the likelihood Javid is correct and anything other than a comfortable Tory majority will prompt an instant crash. ‘Investor confidence’ is going to tank as it does more or less every time a left-wing (or in the case of Argentina, a slightly less right-wing) government gets a surprise victory, even before you get to deliberate destabilisation. It’s going to be a hard fight.

don’t disagree albeit UBS chief economist was saying he is sanguine about the prospects of a LAB majority government (suppose this has to be seen through lens of their perceptions on plausibility).

Trying to talk down the prospect.of.a mildly social democratic government and getting on with business as usual if one happens to get in are very different things

Hot take - they aren't worried about mild social democracy (in fact the infrastructure spending will probably boost a lot of UK stocks and UK investment). The thing that frightens the British establishment is the prospect of Corbyn (and it's specifically Corbyn, rather than anyone else from the Labour left) overturning decades of UK foreign policy.

... and releasing a big bunch of classified files (to the extent there’s any left).

There’d be tons left if they didn’t destroy them or keep losing them in “accidental” fires 🙃

(anecdotally I know people are bricking it in the city about a JC govt. including v senior civil servants. which is good imo.)

Giving Remain one last heave should keep some of them busy

jermey should do his own DEADLOCK video without the JCB.

“Jews have deserted the Labour party for two main reasons,”
“First, the party has lurched to the left

I mean if you carried on reading after that...

The report by the coalition to reform political advertising flagged 4 ads for the Labour Party and at least 3 of them are basically fine? Like it says two of them are misleading for suggesting the tories want to sell the nhs because the tories deny it lol

The other report in the bbc story seems much more substantial, not that 88% dodgy ads for the tories vs 0% for labour stopped the bbc framing it as a both-sides issue

"It looks like Remain will take it" etc.

Apparently the next YouGov MRP poll is really bad for the Tories.

I've booked my hotel for my 2020 holiday. pic.twitter.com/QFfW5wigep

— Darren Grimes (@darrengrimes_) December 10, 2019

tweet's gone on holiday too

Powerful interview with Dave Merritt on Sky - but that's obviously not as important as John Ashworth gossiping.

"Apparently the next YouGov MRP poll is really bad for the Tories."

anyone heard any more of this? I pretty much expect it to show a tory majority and then everybody tops themselves.

Something weird is happening in the markets. Investors are insuring against GBP volatility.

Apparently, this chart is an indication that 'something has changed' in the polling in the last few days.

Investors/hedge funds spend heavily on private polling. They know before we do. pic.twitter.com/CTUdT5Nytt

— Dr Moderate (@centrist_phone) December 10, 2019

Alright, this Dr Telephone you've been dialling, posting something like this but I see no receipts. Where are the receipts, is there anyone on the other end?

Even if it’s really bad it should push some undecideds off the fence and act as a motivator on polling day. What I mean: don’t off yourself til the exit poll (and preferably not at all).

anyone heard any more of this?

there was a tweet from a YouGov guy saying their math robot wasn't even done making shit up calculating yet

xp this is allegedly what happened in 2016; Farage saw polling that pointed to a Leave win, said Remain edged it, pound climbed and climbed, and then Sunderland came in. It is true that hedge funds do extensive private polling but who the fuck knows. Idk about the telephone or the truth of their analysis.

I don't like things that don't link to the source. That shit is for the likes of the guardian, not telephones

yougov MRP is our tonight at 10. not expecting much tbh

Please do not make me post “don’t off yourself til the exit poll” repeatedly itt (esp as this is what I’m telling myself lol)

did... did i just see some old lifelong-labour guy interviewed on bbc news claiming that he was voting libdem this time out because labour ‘wouldn’t get brexit done?’

ffs britain, you really are your own worst enemy

I thought the carrie symonds tape might leak at some point

People wouldn’t care!

did i just see some old lifelong-labour guy interviewed on bbc news claiming that he was voting libdem this time out because labour ‘wouldn’t get brexit done?’

There was an interview a few months ago somewhere with some Lib Dem Leavers in maybe Devon or Cornwall, didn't occur to them there was any contradiction at all until the interviewer pointed it out

Also - friend said he knew some guy that couldn't vote Labour 'Corbyn was a secret leaver'. Which was weird because he wanted to leave. And was therefore going to vote.....Lib Dem instead

oh to have the confidence of the low-information voter

Hoping Johnson's mystery sixth child might wander into camera shot tomorrow, not that it'd make any difference. It'd just be funny.

whatever happened to the tape of the police being called?

Given to the Guardian iirc, so probably with MI5 at the moment.

given all the other pollsters updated their methodologies post-17, I’m expecting the yougov MRP tonight to closely mirror the current average of the polls and continue to show a CON maj

Jesus I didn’t hold on to my sanity till 10 December to suddenly decide to spin out over a fucking YouGov thing, I’m ignoring that shit even if it randomly looks encouraging

just getting the expectation management in for the lads. got to keep those anxiety levels checked

Editorial: Britain's best hope lies with Labour https://t.co/93Pf7KTWKy

— The Guardian (@guardian) December 10, 2019

what's the guardian pls

just goes to show how badly swindon's done to lose the graun endorsement to crumlin

not that it matters, but what is the guardian's recent endorsement history in general elections? have they endorsed anyone other than labour in the past 40 years?

they supported the lib dems in 2010

thankfully nothing bad happened as a result

And never apologised for it! Seriously I read those comments for five long years and the readers then were raging about it for each one of them.

i think if the lib dems had done well in this election period and had some momentum (not that kind) that the guardian would absolutely have supported them.

yeah feels like they’re supporting labour under significant duress

Really? I have great difficulty believing that to be true xp

They've not been remotely kind on them/Swinson iirc

observer is basically the LD's house paper

yeah feels like they’re supporting labour under significant duress

the failing new statesman

focaldata MRP has CON majority at 24; rumour yougov has CON majority at 30.

Their first @focaldataHQ MRP predicted a majority of 82 at the start of the campaign.

The latest MRP? A majority of 24.

Nail-bitingly close to a hung parliament, given the number of very tight marginals. As little as a strong Lab ground game in the marginals could = hung parl. https://t.co/bqrQKUawpb

— Dr Moderate (@centrist_phone) December 10, 2019