Ne'er get thee stitched til Booris be ditched: UK General Election 2019

... on the same day this poll was due to be announced.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKajR9nW4AAV0a8?format=jpg&name=small

but how does he eat scones is the burning question

The lack of complacency is to be seen on Johnson withdrawal on some not all interviews, manifesto that is policy free, an actual social media strategy. Not a blog by Cummings.

Lack of complacency?

How does having a manifesto that was knocked up on the back of a fag packet display a lack of complacency?

not being complacent and putting big stinkers that they want to do in the manifesto maybe

Yeah they're not quite ready to give Sweatshop UK the big sell yet

Yes, what I mean to say is that Tories aren't taking any chances at all. The calculation is surely that enabling Brexit will matter above everything to enough people, hence a policy-free manifesto won't matter.

And that poll is predicting losses for Labour in the likes of Stoke etc.

That's where I would expect Get Brexit Done to work. I'm pretty sure they went into the election thinking they don't have to take any chances anyway, just parrot Get Brexit Done to the proles ad nauseum.

With this poll you can def see why the Labour leadership was dragging its feet on its Brexit policy. In 2017 it lost six seats, and what might be happening is the end of that process.

Having said that it still feels volatile. Most polls were inaccurate then, and the NHS stuff and Labour's ground game is not to be underestimated. It will be the biggest challenge tho'.

I don't know about the NHS, I hope they're not putting all their eggs in that basket. That's largely a personal thing because I have never gotten all misty-eyed and sentimental about the NHS.

If your body becomes broken those US healthcare receipts doing the rounds are enough to scare the shit out of you. But I don't know about misty eyed!

Well how much was 350 million on the side of the bus worth to the leave campaign? I don't know.

But yes I wouldn't put all eggs on the NHS either. Not least because there has been free healthcare since WWII but the decline has been everywhere else. Very easy to believe that Brexit as a confidence trick will work. Green new deal providing jobs is too much like policy and work. Brexit has been sold as a dream. Two weeks to find out.

NHS only good thing about this dumb country

What I mean is, I don't go all Pavlovian Ken Loach at the mention of the NHS and never have, but it's a vote winner so lay it on with a trowel, by all means.

Well that isn't true. Until recently there was free education...and despite DWP being evil and criminal you can still get forms of support and welfare...again, if it doesn't kill you first xp

Anyway off to listen to some outtakes from Trout Mask Replica to cheer myself up.

NHS stuff cuts through like nothing else. That Rob Delaney video got millions of views and the Facebook numbers were from people who didn’t like or follow Corbyn or Labour posts or pages. Same on twitter. Esp in winter when the NHS comes under a lot of strain. The video with doctors and nurses speaking out also cut through with people.

Still much to be done, but newest polls show Lab continuing to gain. Am I right in thinking that the Cons gain in Scotland on the MRP?

Imagine this news will focus wavering voters’ minds and be used to motivate people. Let’s see.

jesus christ

It gets worse pic.twitter.com/MPeKNi2WOW

— Ieuan Skinner (@TehMrSkinner) November 28, 2019

that is legitimately worse than anything I've seen in US media election coverage

What was it? Is deleted now

Still there further down the replies, dunno if this will work

https://mobile.twitter.com/SaltyMcFace/status/1199839397904027649/photo/1

and this pearl... pic.twitter.com/WUkRN5dJSx

— Salty McFace (@SaltyMcFace) November 27, 2019

yup that was it

Got my postal ballot in. Under the lib dem candidate: "Scottish Liberal Democrats - To Stop Brexit" lol

she couldn't stop a bus.

Contra to the idea that the youth don't vote. It's clear from this that they do but they'll have to deliver maybe a dozen Canterbury type results.

Interestingly, buried away in the academic literature accompanying the #YouGov MRP poll is a turnout assumption of *no youthquake* - based on a 2018 study suggesting that the 2017 youth turnout rise was a myth.https://t.co/6zn9WN9liK pic.twitter.com/i2km5YvWdM

— Alex Deam (@someotheralex) November 27, 2019

burlsonaro seems to have genuinely fkd it w this johnson neil thing. hope he gets his jotters

Went to bed just before the MRP got called. Am going back to bed now.

ignore it

burlsonaro normally out serenely QTing low follow-count randos. none of that now. lovely stuff

One of the reasons that Johnson's swerving of the Neil interview matters is because no one has really put his Brexit policy under any sustained scrutiny so far this campaign. Labour has its own reasons to want to focus on other things but it does enable Boris to continue flogging the Get Brexit Done line and it's preventing Labour from dividing the Leave vote as effectively as it might.

The Midlands were always going to be a major faultline in this election and it's one of the areas where fear/distrust/hatred of Corbyn is higher but there has to be a sustained campaigning focus on marginals there and in other Labour Leave areas over the next two weeks. If the Tories do win dozens of seats in those areas then they are likely to become tight marginals, so those seats can still be retained for Labour if there are no more unforced errors and fuck-ups.

On of the big questions is whether Brexit and Corbynfear really are overriding priorities for enough voters or whether that's mainly just media noise. Labour does need to campaign on more than just the NHS though, they need to campaign on how they will create jobs.

BBC reporting that labour are changing their strategy to appeal more to leave voters in order to close the gap

Hmmm wonder how that will manifest itself

Gardiner denied any such change fwiw, not clear what the bbc sources are for this

More Grace Blakeley and less Owen Jones wouldn't hurt

Forget that. The likes of Starmer are done.

Don't really see that Labour's position could shift much now anyway, the policy is intended to bring both sides together and is never gonna reach the extremist positions

lots of vaguely sensible stuff in the BBC analysis but I do question it’s veracity. agree w MDC that they should be going big on the economic offer also

feel a lot more sanguine about the MRP than I did the opinium 19ptr.

Yeah tbh I just looked at how the guardian are reporting it & it’s quite different from what the beeb seemed to be suggesting

Exactly. But the very pro-remainer ppl will be heard from a lot less xps

this changing the strategy line for brexiters does sound like nonsense, can't see any gains from Milne feeding lines like this to the media either. Suddenly Farage appreciation society from Dudley aren't going to coo "aw isn't that nice they want our votes".

Christ, you need both and properly localised messaging.

Not convinced a London media economics think tank type like Grace Blakely is much of an answer to this issue really.

Farage has been very quiet this campaign...

Don't think the Andrew Neil thing matters because Get Brexit Done is more like a feeling than a policy. In one there is no scrutiny that can be applied to it.

Farage has been very quiet this campaign...

― Matt DC, Thursday, 28 November 2019 bookmarkflaglink

🤔🤔🤔

burlsonaro

Who is this?

rob burley, head of BBC politics

Farage is sulking or embarrassed. No matter how much he might wanna get back at Johnson I can't see him trying to interfere with a Tory victory

He knows when he's beaten.

You only need to peel off a relatively small number of would-be Tory voters to make a difference though. There are lots of constituencies on a knife-edge.