Ne'er get thee stitched til Booris be ditched: UK General Election 2019

brexit party with zero seats, well played lads

https://medium.com/@theintersectuk/mrp-estimates-and-the-2019-general-election-9ac1794120d6
ugh, 40somethings are already more Tory than Labour (or indeed Lab+Green put together), sez yougov?

― a passing spacecadet, Wednesday, November 27, 2019 2:17 PM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

gen xers and baby boomers in not being different shocker

YouGov MRP seat estimate:

CON: 359
LAB: 211
SNP: 43
LD: 13

Tory majority of 68 seats, i.e. fully in line with last week's polls. This is not a surprise.

The LD seat total is notable: the party would make just 1 gain compared to 2017. They cannot win this election.

— Stats for Lefties 🌹 🌹 (@LeftieStats) November 27, 2019

The popular vote percentages from YouGov's MRP estimate are:

CON: 43%
LAB: 32%
LD: 14%
SNP: 3%
GRN: 3%
BXP: 3%

The YouGov seat estimate is unsurprising in this context. A 68-seat Tory majority is what one would expect from an 11pt Conservative lead. But the polls will change.

— Stats for Lefties 🌹 🌹 (@LeftieStats) November 27, 2019

The polling data for the MRP estimate was gathered from 19th-26th November, meaning that the MRP estimate mostly relates to last week and thus does not take into account the gains that Labour have made over the past few days.

Onwards and upwards!

— Stats for Lefties 🌹 🌹 (@LeftieStats) November 27, 2019

Straws anyone?

is there info on what % youth turnout they're basing this on

these breakdowns are grimly fascinating...

johnson fans are like this: https://screen.yougov.com/audience/dashboard?market=gb&entityId=e790a50abf854b9e4b907daff8e4ca7aa0e220e8
corbyn fans are like this: https://screen.yougov.com/audience/dashboard?market=gb&entityId=e63b049f3ac44ec94424aaa5019fccfa4b5c0bb6
swinsons mob: https://screen.yougov.com/audience/dashboard?market=gb&entityId=dd490959c9d13b49aa1f1da01f01192f9537662f

lmao on this analysis only two labour MPs left in scotland are: ian murray and...... hugh gaffney

I make it around 67 seats on the YouGov MRP where Lab and Con are within 5 points of each other. Two weeks to go.

— James Morris (@JamesDMorris) November 27, 2019

interesting analysis

How confident are the Tories of winning?

The consensus is a 30+ seat majority. But their own targeted advertising paints a different picture.

In the last week, they've moved from offence to defence. Something has them spooked.

A thread (with supporting charts/data).

1/1 pic.twitter.com/iUiZqUwCdg

— Dr Moderate (@centrist_phone) November 27, 2019

And now I know why:

The data from the YouGov MRP collected over the last 7 days shows positive movement to Labour on each day.

The gap between Con/Lab narrowed by 4.3% over this period.

The Tory manifesto launch and 'antisemitism crisis' day did not stop this trend.

END pic.twitter.com/AhjalYzA3o

— Dr Moderate (@centrist_phone) November 27, 2019

it's a point less lead for the tories than YouGov's last bog standard poll that used a 2000+ sample on the 22nd. Just fucking noise man, chill the fuck out. Still loads of Polling Council approved polls have the lead much narrower. Just some cunt gets 5 numbers on the lottery with a random number generator it doesn't make it a science.

Pretty sure the Tories, or Cummings at least, are trying to guard against complacency by saying it's closer than you think. I'm afraid when people say the Tories are panicking, and it's happened a few times in the past few weeks, I just don't buy it.

If they weren't worried by the new voter registration numbers then that would be severe complacency. You don't need to be YouGov to know them kind of numbers could have a significant effect in lots of marginals.

lmao on this analysis only two labour MPs left in scotland are: ian murray and......hugh gaffney

― tony blair electric chair (||||||||), Wednesday, November 27, 2019 2:31 PM (eighteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

ah, my hometown hero

beeb be beebin:

BBC FB stories last night a few hours b4 voter registration deadline... pic.twitter.com/meyU43sFaE

— patten (@patttten) November 27, 2019

Tories aren't panicking but they have reason not to be complacent, given what happened in 2017.

And again it might well work. The myth of Brexit might still deliver it for Johnson. But from what I can see it's still a lot of volatility and close marginals.

Why is Spiderman pregnant?

Tories aren't panicking but they have reason not to be complacent, given what happened in 2017

Which is why Dominic Cummings is going about saying, "It's closer than you think".

... on the same day this poll was due to be announced.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKajR9nW4AAV0a8?format=jpg&name=small

but how does he eat scones is the burning question

The lack of complacency is to be seen on Johnson withdrawal on some not all interviews, manifesto that is policy free, an actual social media strategy. Not a blog by Cummings.

Lack of complacency?

How does having a manifesto that was knocked up on the back of a fag packet display a lack of complacency?

not being complacent and putting big stinkers that they want to do in the manifesto maybe

Yeah they're not quite ready to give Sweatshop UK the big sell yet

Yes, what I mean to say is that Tories aren't taking any chances at all. The calculation is surely that enabling Brexit will matter above everything to enough people, hence a policy-free manifesto won't matter.

And that poll is predicting losses for Labour in the likes of Stoke etc.

That's where I would expect Get Brexit Done to work. I'm pretty sure they went into the election thinking they don't have to take any chances anyway, just parrot Get Brexit Done to the proles ad nauseum.

With this poll you can def see why the Labour leadership was dragging its feet on its Brexit policy. In 2017 it lost six seats, and what might be happening is the end of that process.

Having said that it still feels volatile. Most polls were inaccurate then, and the NHS stuff and Labour's ground game is not to be underestimated. It will be the biggest challenge tho'.

I don't know about the NHS, I hope they're not putting all their eggs in that basket. That's largely a personal thing because I have never gotten all misty-eyed and sentimental about the NHS.

If your body becomes broken those US healthcare receipts doing the rounds are enough to scare the shit out of you. But I don't know about misty eyed!

Well how much was 350 million on the side of the bus worth to the leave campaign? I don't know.

But yes I wouldn't put all eggs on the NHS either. Not least because there has been free healthcare since WWII but the decline has been everywhere else. Very easy to believe that Brexit as a confidence trick will work. Green new deal providing jobs is too much like policy and work. Brexit has been sold as a dream. Two weeks to find out.

NHS only good thing about this dumb country

What I mean is, I don't go all Pavlovian Ken Loach at the mention of the NHS and never have, but it's a vote winner so lay it on with a trowel, by all means.

Well that isn't true. Until recently there was free education...and despite DWP being evil and criminal you can still get forms of support and welfare...again, if it doesn't kill you first xp

Anyway off to listen to some outtakes from Trout Mask Replica to cheer myself up.

NHS stuff cuts through like nothing else. That Rob Delaney video got millions of views and the Facebook numbers were from people who didn’t like or follow Corbyn or Labour posts or pages. Same on twitter. Esp in winter when the NHS comes under a lot of strain. The video with doctors and nurses speaking out also cut through with people.

Still much to be done, but newest polls show Lab continuing to gain. Am I right in thinking that the Cons gain in Scotland on the MRP?

Imagine this news will focus wavering voters’ minds and be used to motivate people. Let’s see.

jesus christ

It gets worse pic.twitter.com/MPeKNi2WOW

— Ieuan Skinner (@TehMrSkinner) November 28, 2019

that is legitimately worse than anything I've seen in US media election coverage

What was it? Is deleted now

Still there further down the replies, dunno if this will work

https://mobile.twitter.com/SaltyMcFace/status/1199839397904027649/photo/1

and this pearl... pic.twitter.com/WUkRN5dJSx

— Salty McFace (@SaltyMcFace) November 27, 2019

yup that was it

Got my postal ballot in. Under the lib dem candidate: "Scottish Liberal Democrats - To Stop Brexit" lol

she couldn't stop a bus.

Contra to the idea that the youth don't vote. It's clear from this that they do but they'll have to deliver maybe a dozen Canterbury type results.

Interestingly, buried away in the academic literature accompanying the #YouGov MRP poll is a turnout assumption of *no youthquake* - based on a 2018 study suggesting that the 2017 youth turnout rise was a myth.https://t.co/6zn9WN9liK pic.twitter.com/i2km5YvWdM

— Alex Deam (@someotheralex) November 27, 2019

burlsonaro seems to have genuinely fkd it w this johnson neil thing. hope he gets his jotters

Went to bed just before the MRP got called. Am going back to bed now.

ignore it

burlsonaro normally out serenely QTing low follow-count randos. none of that now. lovely stuff

One of the reasons that Johnson's swerving of the Neil interview matters is because no one has really put his Brexit policy under any sustained scrutiny so far this campaign. Labour has its own reasons to want to focus on other things but it does enable Boris to continue flogging the Get Brexit Done line and it's preventing Labour from dividing the Leave vote as effectively as it might.

The Midlands were always going to be a major faultline in this election and it's one of the areas where fear/distrust/hatred of Corbyn is higher but there has to be a sustained campaigning focus on marginals there and in other Labour Leave areas over the next two weeks. If the Tories do win dozens of seats in those areas then they are likely to become tight marginals, so those seats can still be retained for Labour if there are no more unforced errors and fuck-ups.

On of the big questions is whether Brexit and Corbynfear really are overriding priorities for enough voters or whether that's mainly just media noise. Labour does need to campaign on more than just the NHS though, they need to campaign on how they will create jobs.

BBC reporting that labour are changing their strategy to appeal more to leave voters in order to close the gap