Ne'er get thee stitched til Booris be ditched: UK General Election 2019

Having a soul put in

the bbc must have known this and were reporting on his latest blog earlier without mentioning the small matter that spad-u-hate got pumped three weeks ago!

having an extra six inches of forehead installed

bbc are running roughshod over purdah, there reputation will be (even more) fucked after this election and they'll still have to stump for them pensioner license fees. Cunts.

A curious case of selective memory has surrounded the use of MRP. In the 2017 General Election, people seem to recall YouGov’s accurate central estimation of a hung parliament. Using the same technique, the Lord Ashcroft model (which estimated a Conservative majority over 60) is sometimes forgotten.

https://medium.com/@theintersectuk/mrp-estimates-and-the-2019-general-election-9ac1794120d6

Before the shit hits the fan at 10pm, it’s worth bearing in mind that this apparently ironclad MRP polling method is non-transparent, gameable by its underlying assumptions, and not signed off by the British Polling Council.

— Elvis Buñuelo (@Mr_Considerate) November 27, 2019

xp lol yes

just getting a wee bit armour on before it gets ugly

if it predicts a tory majority then it's mere psy ops bullshit, but obv if it predicts a hung parliament or even a slim Labour majority I'll be stroking my chin and saying: hmm definitely interesting one is this.

Pretty good summary of how grim this has been.

i know we're all worried about what happens if Labour loses, but frankly I'm more and more afraid of what could happen after we win

— Archie Woodrow (@Archimbaldo) November 27, 2019

One way or another, if it’s anything other than a Tory majority, I think you’re going to see another election within a year.

Times polling suggests Tory majority of 68 fwiw.

yay

here comes that hollow sick feeling

my favourite

#GE2019 seat projection, MRP model:

CON: 359
LAB: 211
SNP: 43
LDEM: 13

via @YouGov
h/t: https://t.co/YSCax9ZyQX

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) November 27, 2019

britain ejects (their dinner)

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/11/why-you-should-take-yougovs-mrp-pinch-salt

This is not as annoying as Saturday's poll.

https://medium.com/@theintersectuk/mrp-estimates-and-the-2019-general-election-9ac1794120d6

ugh, 40somethings are already more Tory than Labour (or indeed Lab+Green put together), sez yougov?

it might be that I'm going to be in that category disturbingly soon, sad to see how soon one's critical faculties fade, esp since I hadn't got round to working out how to use mine to begin with

anyone know when the numbers for this were taken?

If anybody wants me I'll be in the Rote Armee Fraktion

http://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

brexit party with zero seats, well played lads

https://medium.com/@theintersectuk/mrp-estimates-and-the-2019-general-election-9ac1794120d6
ugh, 40somethings are already more Tory than Labour (or indeed Lab+Green put together), sez yougov?

― a passing spacecadet, Wednesday, November 27, 2019 2:17 PM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

gen xers and baby boomers in not being different shocker

YouGov MRP seat estimate:

CON: 359
LAB: 211
SNP: 43
LD: 13

Tory majority of 68 seats, i.e. fully in line with last week's polls. This is not a surprise.

The LD seat total is notable: the party would make just 1 gain compared to 2017. They cannot win this election.

— Stats for Lefties 🌹 🌹 (@LeftieStats) November 27, 2019

The popular vote percentages from YouGov's MRP estimate are:

CON: 43%
LAB: 32%
LD: 14%
SNP: 3%
GRN: 3%
BXP: 3%

The YouGov seat estimate is unsurprising in this context. A 68-seat Tory majority is what one would expect from an 11pt Conservative lead. But the polls will change.

— Stats for Lefties 🌹 🌹 (@LeftieStats) November 27, 2019

The polling data for the MRP estimate was gathered from 19th-26th November, meaning that the MRP estimate mostly relates to last week and thus does not take into account the gains that Labour have made over the past few days.

Onwards and upwards!

— Stats for Lefties 🌹 🌹 (@LeftieStats) November 27, 2019

Straws anyone?

is there info on what % youth turnout they're basing this on

these breakdowns are grimly fascinating...

johnson fans are like this: https://screen.yougov.com/audience/dashboard?market=gb&entityId=e790a50abf854b9e4b907daff8e4ca7aa0e220e8
corbyn fans are like this: https://screen.yougov.com/audience/dashboard?market=gb&entityId=e63b049f3ac44ec94424aaa5019fccfa4b5c0bb6
swinsons mob: https://screen.yougov.com/audience/dashboard?market=gb&entityId=dd490959c9d13b49aa1f1da01f01192f9537662f

lmao on this analysis only two labour MPs left in scotland are: ian murray and...... hugh gaffney

I make it around 67 seats on the YouGov MRP where Lab and Con are within 5 points of each other. Two weeks to go.

— James Morris (@JamesDMorris) November 27, 2019

interesting analysis

How confident are the Tories of winning?

The consensus is a 30+ seat majority. But their own targeted advertising paints a different picture.

In the last week, they've moved from offence to defence. Something has them spooked.

A thread (with supporting charts/data).

1/1 pic.twitter.com/iUiZqUwCdg

— Dr Moderate (@centrist_phone) November 27, 2019

And now I know why:

The data from the YouGov MRP collected over the last 7 days shows positive movement to Labour on each day.

The gap between Con/Lab narrowed by 4.3% over this period.

The Tory manifesto launch and 'antisemitism crisis' day did not stop this trend.

END pic.twitter.com/AhjalYzA3o

— Dr Moderate (@centrist_phone) November 27, 2019

it's a point less lead for the tories than YouGov's last bog standard poll that used a 2000+ sample on the 22nd. Just fucking noise man, chill the fuck out. Still loads of Polling Council approved polls have the lead much narrower. Just some cunt gets 5 numbers on the lottery with a random number generator it doesn't make it a science.

Pretty sure the Tories, or Cummings at least, are trying to guard against complacency by saying it's closer than you think. I'm afraid when people say the Tories are panicking, and it's happened a few times in the past few weeks, I just don't buy it.

If they weren't worried by the new voter registration numbers then that would be severe complacency. You don't need to be YouGov to know them kind of numbers could have a significant effect in lots of marginals.

lmao on this analysis only two labour MPs left in scotland are: ian murray and......hugh gaffney

― tony blair electric chair (||||||||), Wednesday, November 27, 2019 2:31 PM (eighteen minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

ah, my hometown hero

beeb be beebin:

BBC FB stories last night a few hours b4 voter registration deadline... pic.twitter.com/meyU43sFaE

— patten (@patttten) November 27, 2019

Tories aren't panicking but they have reason not to be complacent, given what happened in 2017.

And again it might well work. The myth of Brexit might still deliver it for Johnson. But from what I can see it's still a lot of volatility and close marginals.

Why is Spiderman pregnant?

Tories aren't panicking but they have reason not to be complacent, given what happened in 2017

Which is why Dominic Cummings is going about saying, "It's closer than you think".

... on the same day this poll was due to be announced.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKajR9nW4AAV0a8?format=jpg&name=small

but how does he eat scones is the burning question

The lack of complacency is to be seen on Johnson withdrawal on some not all interviews, manifesto that is policy free, an actual social media strategy. Not a blog by Cummings.

Lack of complacency?

How does having a manifesto that was knocked up on the back of a fag packet display a lack of complacency?

not being complacent and putting big stinkers that they want to do in the manifesto maybe

Yeah they're not quite ready to give Sweatshop UK the big sell yet

Yes, what I mean to say is that Tories aren't taking any chances at all. The calculation is surely that enabling Brexit will matter above everything to enough people, hence a policy-free manifesto won't matter.

And that poll is predicting losses for Labour in the likes of Stoke etc.

That's where I would expect Get Brexit Done to work. I'm pretty sure they went into the election thinking they don't have to take any chances anyway, just parrot Get Brexit Done to the proles ad nauseum.