Ne'er get thee stitched til Booris be ditched: UK General Election 2019

Labour goes for the hunni vote! I think uokhuns might be a demographic worth capturing.

I refuse to believe this conservative govt are going to poll 47%

us polling is largely bad for the same reasons uk polling is bad: inadequate weighting models and bad local-to-global generalisation based on too-small samples

in additional an unreadable degree of political volatility, where the past is much less of a guide to the present

some of the crowd scenes for JC remind me of pence's comment in 2016: "this doesn’t feel like second place."

do they still only poll over landline?

also assume there will be another bunch of polls tonight for the sundays?

The poll above is for the Observer.

it's *in* the observer, i'm not sure that the observer is the client paying for it

Nate silver says uk polls are useless, is this a good thing?

Agree. 2017 is leading people to massively overread margin of error movements (when the 2017 movements were outside margin of error) and to ignore that thus far, story of election is "frontrunner maintains and/or extends lead".

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) November 23, 2019

We should know better on here by now: all the polls are bullshit - apart from the ones showing an ascendant Labour which are obviously the more accurate and significant ones - so nowt to see here!

silver says uk polls are useless bcz he failed to work out how to aggregate them effectively bcz his grasp of actual politics is zero -- as evidenced by his worse-than-usless op-ed tweets abt us politics

If uk polls could have been aggregated effectively, then presumably someone would have figured out how to do so. Yet they keep on being shit election after election, compared to pretty much everywhere else in the world.

i prefer to conclude that nate silver is an idiot bcz it fits my priors as well as all the facts in evidence

“There was something about a four-day working week. I reckon it would just mean doing four 12-hour shifts;” “It’s insulting people’s intelligence. I’m going to be working 7.30 till four, four days a week with three days off, for the same wage? It’s bollocks, isn’t it?”

from Lord Ashcroft Polls focus groups

I wasn't taking the poll super seriously, just taking any excuse to tamp down my hopes. Hopes bad!!

that poll is blair landslide stuff. tonty was cruising round the country being met by large adulatory crowds. hmmm

I wanted to keep feeling bad so I popped over the JK Rowling's twitter feed. Very cool!

Heading over to Sky news to review this and other Sunday papers this evening https://t.co/5V1Nq0IuJC

— rachel shabi (@rachshabi) November 23, 2019

simon

why. would. you. do. that.

WASPI policy seems big, right? 3 million affected

those waspi women are another group (like junior doctors) who might have been tory voters but have been radicalised into tory haters, Corbz should be able to mop their votes up!

The voting intentions surveyed since #ITVDebate so far:

Opinium: Con +19
BMG: Con +13
YouGov: Con +12
Panelbase: Con +10

More expected.https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D pic.twitter.com/IrRqq4YFxf

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) November 23, 2019

Letter from Jo Swinson sent to her East Dunbartonshire constituents this afternoon. Mentions the SNP threat to her several times: “the election is again expected to be close between myself and the SNP.” pic.twitter.com/R5jPV89gty

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) November 23, 2019

What handwriting lol

https://daily.jstor.org/graphology-isnt-real-science/

simon

why. would. you. do. that.

she has 14 million followers! and like I said I enjoy feeling bad

just realised the WASPI policy is launching on same day as tory manifesto. sneaky

I didn't realise boris did a u-turn on a previous hollow commitment to the waspi women. excellent

johnson approval rating over JC has dropped from 45pts to 24pts over the past four weeks in the latest deltapoll (which has CON lead at 13pts)

Ugh is Jo Swinson one of those Apprentice-style assholes who always uses ‘myself’ when ‘me’ would be sufficient? See also: people who call the ground ‘floor’.

a chilling vision of the future

corbyn, in his IRA balaclava, breaks into the home of a landlord to steal ALL of the 80k earnings that he keeps in cash. it will be used to build a solid gold statue of marx pissing on thatcher

“but please, my children will starve” begs the landlord

“FUCK THEM!” corbyn screams

— twigs (@notpixietit) November 22, 2019

This is it? this?. Twice as much for pot holes as childcare and ... nothing else?

45% of the country must really want Brexit very, very badly.

NEW: KEY TORY MANIFESTO PLEDGES

- WAB back before Christmas
- No increases to income tax, national insurance or VAT
- NI threshold raised to £9,500
- £2bn pothole fund
-end car parking charges for NHS staff on night shifts/families of terminally ill
-£1bn for childcare

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) November 23, 2019

Ugh is Jo Swinson one of those Apprentice-style assholes who always uses ‘myself’ when ‘me’ would be sufficient? See also: people who call the ground ‘floor’.

Makes more sense in Glaswegian: “the election is expected to be close between masel' n' the fuckin' SNP.”

Fuck me @ the end car parking policy

Wonder if they'll work out a rebate system for hospital visitors whose loved one isn't terminal when they go in

sorry everyone i’m voting tory

pothole fund could destroy local government as we know it

UK pollsters have tiny samples and are allowed ‘push’ questions. In the US, push-polling is illegal.

― santa clause four (suzy), Saturday, November 23, 2019 2:20 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

push polling is not legal in the US afaict.

i think the main reason UK polling is not a good predictor of results is that there are lots of viable parties. this massively increases the number of ways a pollster can get things wrong, and the "right" way to address that challenge varies geographically (which makes it hard, and also requires bigger samples).

i mean the lib dems aren't a viable party, but there are others.

Good news! A new MRP model by Datapraxis shows that the Liberal Democrats could defeat Dominic Raab and Labour could defeat Boris Johnson. Bad news! Uh, it also shows a Tory majority of 48: https://t.co/70amBHSi6x

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) November 23, 2019

I mean it's an incredibly lolsome piece of reporting. Priti Patel as PM on that wafer thin manifesto!

I had to get a refund at the hospital car park as a user of a&e last week, this involved getting my ticket stamped by the hospital receptionist, not paying when I got back into the car park, instead just finding my car, driving to the exit and parking nearby, walking to the service desk and getting a replacement discounted ticket, *then* going and paying, then going back to my car and leaving in the usual way. None of this was signposted or explained anywhere, I had to go back and find someone in a&e to explain it to me, they were a bit busy obviously. Still paid over £5 for a couple of hours parking.

This is the kind of thing NHS staff on night shifts / families of terminally ill have to look forward to is it?

Tory manifesto looks astonishingly all-purpose crap: crap if you're leftwing, crap if you want to have a transformative right-wing government, really only good if you like boomers and increasing government debt.

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) November 23, 2019

Interesting point by James Mills that Johnson is beginning to morph into the robotic Theresa May, endlessly repeating the same slogans. https://t.co/7X4HXNhi5n

— John McDonnell MP (@johnmcdonnellMP) November 23, 2019

McD quite correct

That's been the case for a while - the big warning sign that he's been repeating most of May's mistakes but I also think he may be more able to get away with it than she was.

The biggest worry for him so far as that audiences literally start laughing when he answers a question about trust and honesty.

No worries, the BBC can edit out the laughter

Did the BBC really do this? So shocking if true. https://t.co/NlxMfNE30Z

— Peter Oborne (@OborneTweets) November 23, 2019

Here we have the fantastic @AngelaRayner discussing the manifesto using sign language with a voter - she never fails to amaze me 🌹
View it here 👉🏻 https://t.co/BpHrPZW5Yd#manifesto #Labour @GrahamJones_MP @Azhar4Pendle @labourpress @UKLabour @Hyndburn_Labour @DisabilityLab pic.twitter.com/Y4lPC9JhvD

— Kimberley Whitehead (@WalkOnBRFC) November 23, 2019

Rayner often gets a lot of classist sneering (with a bit of misogyny thrown in) because her background and accent obv mean she is thick, but how many of these fuckers know how to campaign in sign language?

Tremendous from Rayner. What a woman.

Saw that BBC thing doing the rounds yesterday but I wonder if that is always the usual type of edit for news items rather than something ideologically motivated. Trust in them is incredibly low though, and its against a left that is rightly wary.

well at least 6 million people saw the live program with the derisory laughter when boris answers a question on trust and integrity. They can't edit our short term memories yet!