Ne'er get thee stitched til Booris be ditched: UK General Election 2019

leave 4 - 0 remain

'10 swinson (OG)
'43 swinson (OG)
'61 swinson (OG)
'89 swinson (OG)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer

ah good I was getting too optimistic

The raw numbers are better for Labour than that, it’s where you look at likeliness to vote that it changes.

A hung parliament with Labour at the helm is the best we can hope for anyway.

Perhaps, but I maintain as I did before that you shouldn’t shit yourself before the exit poll.

(xp) And that's being very optimistic.

Fiona Bruce's greatest moment was shouting TANKTOPPED BUMBOYS. Twice, iirc.

one polling boon this election seems to be that nate fkn silver is keeping his analysis to himself

he is possibly unjustly criticised for his goose-entrail flailing in US elex 2016, which he mostly got less wrong than others but his readings of UK results (referendum especially) were worse than useless

I think they backed down from UK polls a while back. Have anyone ever figured out why UK polling is so bad?

All I will say is that Boris seems edgy as fuck for someone with such a massive polling lead - and he’s doing events that he doesn’t really need to if he can just sit on that lead.

the UK is bad

UK pollsters have tiny samples and are allowed ‘push’ questions. In the US, push-polling is illegal.

Also, supposedly Johnny Mc is making an announcement re WASPI women tomorrow. If he does, that’s a really big deal.

Labour goes for the hunni vote! I think uokhuns might be a demographic worth capturing.

I refuse to believe this conservative govt are going to poll 47%

us polling is largely bad for the same reasons uk polling is bad: inadequate weighting models and bad local-to-global generalisation based on too-small samples

in additional an unreadable degree of political volatility, where the past is much less of a guide to the present

some of the crowd scenes for JC remind me of pence's comment in 2016: "this doesn’t feel like second place."

do they still only poll over landline?

also assume there will be another bunch of polls tonight for the sundays?

The poll above is for the Observer.

it's *in* the observer, i'm not sure that the observer is the client paying for it

Nate silver says uk polls are useless, is this a good thing?

Agree. 2017 is leading people to massively overread margin of error movements (when the 2017 movements were outside margin of error) and to ignore that thus far, story of election is "frontrunner maintains and/or extends lead".

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) November 23, 2019

We should know better on here by now: all the polls are bullshit - apart from the ones showing an ascendant Labour which are obviously the more accurate and significant ones - so nowt to see here!

silver says uk polls are useless bcz he failed to work out how to aggregate them effectively bcz his grasp of actual politics is zero -- as evidenced by his worse-than-usless op-ed tweets abt us politics

If uk polls could have been aggregated effectively, then presumably someone would have figured out how to do so. Yet they keep on being shit election after election, compared to pretty much everywhere else in the world.

i prefer to conclude that nate silver is an idiot bcz it fits my priors as well as all the facts in evidence

“There was something about a four-day working week. I reckon it would just mean doing four 12-hour shifts;” “It’s insulting people’s intelligence. I’m going to be working 7.30 till four, four days a week with three days off, for the same wage? It’s bollocks, isn’t it?”

from Lord Ashcroft Polls focus groups

I wasn't taking the poll super seriously, just taking any excuse to tamp down my hopes. Hopes bad!!

that poll is blair landslide stuff. tonty was cruising round the country being met by large adulatory crowds. hmmm

I wanted to keep feeling bad so I popped over the JK Rowling's twitter feed. Very cool!

Heading over to Sky news to review this and other Sunday papers this evening https://t.co/5V1Nq0IuJC

— rachel shabi (@rachshabi) November 23, 2019

simon

why. would. you. do. that.

WASPI policy seems big, right? 3 million affected

those waspi women are another group (like junior doctors) who might have been tory voters but have been radicalised into tory haters, Corbz should be able to mop their votes up!

The voting intentions surveyed since #ITVDebate so far:

Opinium: Con +19
BMG: Con +13
YouGov: Con +12
Panelbase: Con +10

More expected.https://t.co/m1hoBpI81D pic.twitter.com/IrRqq4YFxf

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) November 23, 2019

Letter from Jo Swinson sent to her East Dunbartonshire constituents this afternoon. Mentions the SNP threat to her several times: “the election is again expected to be close between myself and the SNP.” pic.twitter.com/R5jPV89gty

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) November 23, 2019

What handwriting lol

https://daily.jstor.org/graphology-isnt-real-science/

simon

why. would. you. do. that.

she has 14 million followers! and like I said I enjoy feeling bad

just realised the WASPI policy is launching on same day as tory manifesto. sneaky

I didn't realise boris did a u-turn on a previous hollow commitment to the waspi women. excellent

johnson approval rating over JC has dropped from 45pts to 24pts over the past four weeks in the latest deltapoll (which has CON lead at 13pts)

Ugh is Jo Swinson one of those Apprentice-style assholes who always uses ‘myself’ when ‘me’ would be sufficient? See also: people who call the ground ‘floor’.

a chilling vision of the future

corbyn, in his IRA balaclava, breaks into the home of a landlord to steal ALL of the 80k earnings that he keeps in cash. it will be used to build a solid gold statue of marx pissing on thatcher

“but please, my children will starve” begs the landlord

“FUCK THEM!” corbyn screams

— twigs (@notpixietit) November 22, 2019

This is it? this?. Twice as much for pot holes as childcare and ... nothing else?

45% of the country must really want Brexit very, very badly.

NEW: KEY TORY MANIFESTO PLEDGES

- WAB back before Christmas
- No increases to income tax, national insurance or VAT
- NI threshold raised to £9,500
- £2bn pothole fund
-end car parking charges for NHS staff on night shifts/families of terminally ill
-£1bn for childcare

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) November 23, 2019

Ugh is Jo Swinson one of those Apprentice-style assholes who always uses ‘myself’ when ‘me’ would be sufficient? See also: people who call the ground ‘floor’.

Makes more sense in Glaswegian: “the election is expected to be close between masel' n' the fuckin' SNP.”

Fuck me @ the end car parking policy

Wonder if they'll work out a rebate system for hospital visitors whose loved one isn't terminal when they go in

sorry everyone i’m voting tory