Ne'er get thee stitched til Booris be ditched: UK General Election 2019

@ElectionMapsUK
·
Nov 17
#GE2019 Nowcast (17th Nov):
(incl. METHODOLOGY CHANGE)

CON: 346 (-21), 41.3% (+2.9)
LAB: 211 (+16), 29.4% (+1.2)
SNP: 51 (+5), 3.5% (+0.1)
LDM: 18 (-1), 14.8% (-1.3)

See the graphics for full results.
Changes w/ 12th Nov.

Still absolutely ridicuous imo but moving in the right direction

Hopefully it's going to move faster because that's disastrous.

That poll is a week old tbf.

tories have an average 13pt lead in the polls. it was a 17pt lead at this point in the 2017 election

A few polls in mid-May 2017 had Labour on 28% and Tories almost on 50.

Just trying to do some maths on potentially 3 million 'new' votes in this election if the turnout goes up a few percent so a result like that poll requires Labour to lose around that many votes in return while the Tories GAIN .5-1 million? I mean come on.

also are these polls going to adjust for all these hundreds of thousands of young voters getting on the electoral register? The figures quoted in this thread have to be significant.

really good thread worth clicking through for

Another big problem for the Tories in #GE19 has been trust. Johnson has come across as disingenuous in these debates, and his top lines sound unbelievable... May had a similar problem in 2017. This could return in #GE2019 as "Get Brexit Done" becomes 2019's "Strong and Stable"... pic.twitter.com/MAFKEWfhDa

— James Mills (@JamesMills1984) November 23, 2019

tim walker says 'neutrality is not what leadership looks like' - must be notable that all the FBPEs in tim walker's mentions seem to be saying "actually... this position is pretty sound and I'm fine with it"

Why the fuck he didn't just articulate this months/years ago when it was obvious this was how he felt I have no idea

I think my fave Fiona Bruce bit was when she said something like " I didn't think it would take long for that phrase to make an appearance " to "oven ready" it was quite a sick burn really and made him look like a repetitious Maybot upgrade.

given some of the rest of the crap they've pulled, i wouldn't trust these 3 million new votes to be bots. it's almost like a ddos on the registration process.

Who is 'they' here and why would they pull any crap on the registration process?

the polls can't really adjust accurately for the young new voters bcz they don't know how to weight for them yet -- they don't know how this arriving lump of voter will carve up in terms of vote share (including turn-out models) so any adjustment will be a more or less bullshit guess, and the root of the guess is either a dicethrow or motivated reasoning: "surely the entirely effect must be in THIS DIRECTION [= an untested guess]?" or else "surely the effect will be negligeable (bcz young ppl don't vote and anyway bots?)"

they is the same guys who did a DDOS on the labour website? = rob burley's son large son cyril iirc

they = the ones who pulled the factcheckuk and the labourmanifestuk website shit.

lol ok and this is to give Labour a false sense of security/get the older voters to turn out?

big dials marked 'RACISM' and 'HANGCRIMINALS' will be getting cranked this week no doubt

false hope, gaming pollsters, fake voters, even. at this point i wouldn't put anything past them. what checks are made during registration? is there even a 'i am not a robot' checkbox? 8)

this is the party that illegally stopped parliament, remember.

ok,

"You’ll be asked for your National Insurance number (but you can still register if you do not have one)."

but

"There’s a different process to register anonymously, for example if you’re concerned about your safety."

but maybe i've watched too much The Good Wife

I think my fave Fiona Bruce bit was when she said something like " I didn't think it would take long for that phrase to make an appearance " to "oven ready" it was quite a sick burn really and made him look like a repetitious Maybot upgrade.

Bemused that the Tories are still pursuing this approach after the last time, are they dim or what? Fuck a Paxman obviously, but we need someone to tell Tory ministers, under instruction to talk over interviewers, to shut the fuck up and answer the question just asked.

it's electorally valid, asimov says so in his laws of robotics (14 amendment)

Actually watched the debate this morning and while Swinson bombed Johnson really doesn't have any sort of Cameronian touch. I am not getting into the mind of Tory - LD voter tho'.

https://t.co/dDQhNqlAk6 pic.twitter.com/gyDBr0sFDJ

— joe (@cillanoir) November 23, 2019

'get brexit done' keeps feeling like the setup for a punchline

i.e. 'don't mind if i do, boris'

etc

LOL if you want Lib Dem stubbornness with Corbyn Derangement Syndrome, look no further than Lynne Featherstone’s Twitter feed.

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/08/ryan-jacobsz-to-win-the-next-election-the-conservatives-must-make-better-use-of-their-activists.html

The nasty grecian 2000 abusing SA from last night is : Ryan Jacobsz is a Hull West & Hessle representative to the Conservative Area Council and campaigns in marginal seats throughout the country.

Just linking this for any granddads reading

just torturous, please stop https://t.co/FIOuvvRb8d pic.twitter.com/h7OOdzaPf3

— tom (@malaiseforever) November 23, 2019

leave 4 - 0 remain

'10 swinson (OG)
'43 swinson (OG)
'61 swinson (OG)
'89 swinson (OG)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/23/tories-renewed-poll-boost-brexit-party-candidates-pull-out-opinium-observer

ah good I was getting too optimistic

The raw numbers are better for Labour than that, it’s where you look at likeliness to vote that it changes.

A hung parliament with Labour at the helm is the best we can hope for anyway.

Perhaps, but I maintain as I did before that you shouldn’t shit yourself before the exit poll.

(xp) And that's being very optimistic.

Fiona Bruce's greatest moment was shouting TANKTOPPED BUMBOYS. Twice, iirc.

one polling boon this election seems to be that nate fkn silver is keeping his analysis to himself

he is possibly unjustly criticised for his goose-entrail flailing in US elex 2016, which he mostly got less wrong than others but his readings of UK results (referendum especially) were worse than useless

I think they backed down from UK polls a while back. Have anyone ever figured out why UK polling is so bad?

All I will say is that Boris seems edgy as fuck for someone with such a massive polling lead - and he’s doing events that he doesn’t really need to if he can just sit on that lead.

the UK is bad

UK pollsters have tiny samples and are allowed ‘push’ questions. In the US, push-polling is illegal.

Also, supposedly Johnny Mc is making an announcement re WASPI women tomorrow. If he does, that’s a really big deal.

Labour goes for the hunni vote! I think uokhuns might be a demographic worth capturing.

I refuse to believe this conservative govt are going to poll 47%

us polling is largely bad for the same reasons uk polling is bad: inadequate weighting models and bad local-to-global generalisation based on too-small samples

in additional an unreadable degree of political volatility, where the past is much less of a guide to the present

some of the crowd scenes for JC remind me of pence's comment in 2016: "this doesn’t feel like second place."

do they still only poll over landline?

also assume there will be another bunch of polls tonight for the sundays?

The poll above is for the Observer.

it's *in* the observer, i'm not sure that the observer is the client paying for it

Nate silver says uk polls are useless, is this a good thing?

Agree. 2017 is leading people to massively overread margin of error movements (when the 2017 movements were outside margin of error) and to ignore that thus far, story of election is "frontrunner maintains and/or extends lead".

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) November 23, 2019