2020 Democratic presidential primary

Pete definitely seems like a candidate from a movie who turns out to be the antichrist

^^
this is basically Left Behind, the documentary unfolding in real time

Intercept’s steez is to repeat other ppl’s reporting but w added overheated lefty rhetoric afaict

Xos

that’s a patently preposterous statement, but just for some education their brazil reporting has been genuinely heroic

https://theintercept.com/series/iran-cables/

from this week

lula is free in part due to their reporting on corruption and election rigging

MSNBC asked Kamala Harris about the Kenyan stock photo thing during the debate and she got hella uncomfortable & said he’d already apologized for that before transitioning into the broader issue of how Democrats take black voters for granted. I think it was the right move though obviously disappointing for those of us who want o see Mayor Pete get slammed

Here's how I break it down atm.

If the nomination race comes down to Buttigeig, Sanders, Warren and Biden after Iowa, NH and SC, then it seems like the race will eventually need to settle even further, down to either Buttigeig or Biden repping for the old middle, and either Sanders or Warren repping for the progressives. Once that's sorted it will more closely resemble HRC vs. Sanders in 2016.

If Biden's going to have a chance, he needs to clean up big in SC, otherwise Pete's going to sweep him aside. Neither one has a well-defined agenda or policy goals, so it will all come down to which one makes a better emotional connection to the voters who share their lack of ideas and definite goals.

On the other side of the card, Sanders and Warren both have similarly strong policy goals and differ only moderately on substance. Both have a strong ground game and motivated activist supporters. I don't think either one can claim a definitive advantage going into the first three contests and it will be interesting to see how they hone their campaigns against changing circumstances. Sanders has the more visceral appeal to marginalized voters. Warren's sweet spot is among the college-educated liberals and women. I have no idea who's going to emerge in front, but I have a hunch Warren will take the edge over Sanders, just because marginalized voters are so much harder to get to the polls or caucuses.

I'm not worried if both Sanders and Warren stay in it, nearly even with one another, clear until May, if their combined voting base is greater than the two status quo guys. If the progressive vote tops out under 45%, then the status quo's gonna status quo again.

The dynamics of the rest of the race would be very different in each of the combinations of head-to-head that could emerge between these four contenders, so I won't even try to sort it out that far ahead. Just posting this much is pretty self-indulgent, but hey I'm retired!

username checks out

IIRC, Reality Winner is in jail thanks to tips from the Intercept.

that is certainly one way of putting it

sorry k3v and symsym I was mixing up the Intercept with Splinternews upthread.

xps

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/2020-candidate-pete-buttigieg-troubled-by-clemency-for-chelsea-manning/

^ demonstrating the strength and political courage to criticize Obama! what a guy!

mayor pete was thoughtful enough to make those shitty remarks the week chelsea manning was jailed again by the trump administration

I'm not sure who makes my skin crawl more, Gabbard or Mayor Pete

The Intercept has had their best stretch ever these last few months. Brazil and Iran are great, great feats of journalism. Peter Maas has also been great on Handke. I did have a dark laugh when at the bottom of the Iran cable article it says Document excerpts have been retyped to avoid identifying markings. Sigh.

Harris: Buttigieg comparing 'struggles' between black, LGBTQ communities is 'a bit naive'

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) on Thursday accused fellow White House hopeful South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) of being “a bit naive” in making a comparison between the “struggles” of black and LGBTQ Americans during Wednesday night’s Democratic debate in Atlanta.

She added that it is not productive for those struggling for civil rights to “compare our struggles.”

"Those of us who've been involved in civil rights for a long time we know that it is important that we not compare our struggles," Harris said during a Black Women Power Breakfast hosted by Higher Heights, a national political organization for black women that has endorsed Harris, CBS News reported.

“It is not productive, it is not smart and strategically it works against what we need to do which is build coalition.”

"We know that in our ongoing fight for civil rights if any one of us starts to differentiate ourselves in a certain way and in particular what he did on the stage, it's just not productive. And I think it's a bit naïve,” Harris continued.

During the Wednesday debate, Buttigieg said he welcomes “the challenge of connecting with black voters in America who don’t yet know me,” citing experience as a mayor, his faith and his experiences as a gay man.

"While I do not have the experience of ever having been discriminated against because of the color of my skin, I do have the experience of sometimes feeling like a stranger in my own country, turning on the news and seeing my own rights come up for debate," Buttigieg said.

"Wearing this wedding ring in a way that couldn't have happened two elections ago lets me know just how deep my obligation is to help those whose rights are on the line every day, even if they are nothing like me in their experience,” he continued.

Harris also criticized Buttigieg’s comments immediately after the debate Wednesday, telling CNN “I'm never going to engage or allow anyone to engage in comparing struggles. I think that is just misdirected.”

Buttigieg responded Thursday to Harris’s comments, telling reporters that “there’s no equating those two experiences,” CBS News reported.

"What I do think is important is for each of us to reveal who we are and what motivates us and it's important for voters to understand what makes me tick, what moves me and my sources of motivation and ensuring that I stand up for others," Buttigieg said Thursday. "Last night I shared that some of my sources of motivation included my personal experience, my governing experience and my personal faith."

Buttigieg has seen a surge of support in some key early state polls, including in Iowa and New Hampshire, but he has struggled to gain traction with black voters, a key demographic for Democratic candidates.

A Quinnipiac University poll released this week showed him receiving 0 percent support of black voters in South Carolina.

His tacit endorsement by Mark Zuckerberg is icky, but Gabbard just gives me the creeps.

i have that special constituent's dislike of gabbard, whom i doubt will be my rep much longer; but imo pete and peteism are much more imminent+serious threats to the party than the weirdo cryptoreactionary thing one suspects/hopes she will eventually start doing outside of it. also i hate him, i hate his face

v fascinated by tulsi gabbard's fusion of chaotic evil + aloha

poll released this week showed him receiving 0 percent support of black voters in South Carolina.

thank you, thank you, thank you, black voters of South Carolina, for your deep mistrust of Buttigeig, even if you bequeath us Smilin' Joe Biden as your chosen gift to the Democratic party. At least Joe is pure WYSIWYG, not some cipher who's fronting from the moment he wakes up to when he goes to sleep.

The Atlantic article about Biden's stutter feels like special pleading - "He's smarter than he sounds, honest!" - but it's interesting nonetheless.

That "Mr. Magoo" Biden comparison from Axelrod is perfect. Biden often stumbles over his words so badly it seems that surely his popularity will take a hit this time, but somehow the gaffes and senior moments never seem to leave a mark. In that way it's reminiscent of Trump's primary campaign performances, when the media kept waiting breathlessly for his latest outrage to cut into his support.

I think the goodwill he's engendered from the obama years are just going to be too much to overcome. he'll probably win the nomination

yep

That "Mr. Magoo" Biden comparison from Axelrod is perfect. Biden often stumbles over his words so badly it seems that surely his popularity will take a hit this time, but somehow the gaffes and senior moments never seem to leave a mark.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d4/Reagan_reelection_thumbs_up_1984.jpg

The Biden/trump debates would (will?) be a shitshow

How much of his mistakes might make him more endearing to some voters? The old ‘president i’d like to have a beer with’ truism can’t have evaporated that much in recent years.

americans do still love beer

... and would love to bash Trump over the head with a beer bottle.

Iirc liking beer has become an important litmus test for potential Supreme Court Justices

i believe the litmus test for potential SC justices is much you kissed anthony kennedy's moldy ass

Kennedy's ego must have enjoyed that attention from being the unpredictable 'swing' vote so fucking much it's faintly disgusting to contemplate.

hmmm...it definitely has a distinctive aroma, but it's not overwhelming, either. it's almost sweet, definitely "earthy".

xp to the thought of kissing supreme ass

<i>The Atlantic article about Biden's stutter feels like special pleading - "He's smarter than he sounds, honest!"</i>

that's very charitable

Under the Submit Post button: Show Formatting Help

lol yes sometimes I reveal my idiocy.

Usually.

It’s all over, guys.

Jimmy Dore endorsing Tulsi.

of course Biden is smarter than he sounds. The guy has deep foreign policy chops. domestic maybe not so good.

So IMO it's *not* enough to say "oh, he beats expectations nationally, so he's underrated by polls". The question is where he goes after an Iowa or New Hampshire victory. CBS crunched data on this and finds.... not far... pic.twitter.com/Ea7GAvThsi

— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) November 22, 2019

Don't really understand this tweet, but a question: if it ends up like this, then nobody has a majority at the convention. Can Sanders then make Warren the nominee on second ballot?

Fred fantasizing about brokered conventions is for nerds, don't be a nerd

we're speculating about this now, or, rather, G. Elliot Morris is?

No, the tweets are mostly about Buttigieg being bad. I just wanted to be told the left is looking like they are winning.

the tweet is just saying, if mayor pete did do really well in IA and NH, that wouldn't necessary realign this race in his favor. because the following states are really different and he's not doing great there, etc. basically don't get "momentum" type narratives ("beats expectations!") mixed up with how broad a candidate's support is, and don't be led by them to overrate causal relationships between different primaries. right?

At least the 2020 democratic race won't be as weird as the 2012 republican race, where Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachman all had their brief moments in the sun as the "frontrunner gathering momentum" before crashing, burning and having their ashes scattered to the wind.

Twitter needs a filter where you can block anyone who has tweeted "Yang" more than three times in a month.