US Politics, November 2019: These people are truly sick.

as has been said many times, it's a turnout/numbers game. whichever side has more enthusiasm wins. A bunch of ppl going "I guess I'll vote for the Democrat, even though I don't like him/her" is not a reliable base of support, is all I'm saying. It drives down turnout at the margins because you *do* get people not bothering, not donating, not paying attention, etc.

xp

Strongly think that what happens first more than anything else is Rudy finally being cut loose/described as someone who 'did too much' or whatever. (Amusingly, the whole deal with those two cronies of his being arrested provides the clarity here -- SDNY office is interviewing a gas energy buddy of that whole circle this week, for instance.)

Per DJP's point, I think Sondland going "Fuck it" is what causes a lot of his fellow high level GOP money people in general to start thinking "Hmm...my good money after bad?" If the argument is tax cuts, well they got their share (and to hell with them for it), but they don't need Trump now and he's hardly helping in terms of long-term financial stuff.

Amazing

Nunes is now complaining that the whistleblower isn’t testifying to provide secondhand information about records the administration has refused to provide, which is… odd.

— Julian Sanchez (@normative) November 20, 2019

Shakey, you are completely ignoring that the Republican side is going to actively impede the ability of perceived Democratic voters to get to the polls. That's not lack of enthusiasm, that's disenfranchisement. That is what we need to fight.

the point is vengeance and intimidation obv, but nunes has a very weak hand to play with

what bums me out is that none of the Dem front-runners really have that charismatic magic. They are all boring to watch, with the exception of Bernie who is entertainingly cantankerous and has a certain idgaf swagger (but that has a relatively narrow appeal). I know how we like to all argue about plans and policy details and principles etc but the electorate generally isn't driven by those factors, they are much more swayed by a candidate that reflects back at them things they want to believe about themselves and the country ie "I am the type of person that will vote for a smart, funny African American guy". After a long slog of a primary, almost nobody's gonna have that positive glow about the nominee, no matter who it is.

djp otm

I'm not ignoring that! Turnout and enthusiasm can overcome voter suppression by serving as a backstop against it, providing the manpower to resist it/organize against it, overwhelm it w superior numbers etc.

xps

what bums me out is that none of the Dem front-runners really have that charismatic magic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5ibSvOWAMg

I guess my broader point is ppl aren't inclined to fight very hard for candidates they don't feel too strongly about. And that includes both organizing against voter suppression efforts AND actually voting.

Doing 3 things at the same time, was that Sondland saying he had to return to Brussels to go back to his duties?
Can't he be relieved of duties for being like, bent and all like that?

what bums me out is that none of the Dem front-runners really have that charismatic magic. They are all boring to watch

I get the feeling you and I have not been watching the same Elizabeth Warren. (Or the same Bernie Sanders - I hate the guy and don't want him to win, but he can rally a crowd.)

You underestimate the sentiment that Warren and Sanders inspire, Shakes.

like, are African American voters in the South gonna go to the mat for Mayor Pete, with Stacey Abrams leading the charge? I kinda doubt it.

xps

maybe we move this to the primary thread idk

I idly wondered just now about Castor -- like, who hired him, why is he specifically there instead of someone competent? -- over on Twitter, and @dick_nixon himself said he's been in the role since 2005, having already figured that nobody else wanted the job. So an apparatchik who just trundled along through the years and then somehow figured he wouldn't ever have to deal with something like this. Hindsight may be 20/20 but he shoulda parachuted out after the elections last year.

y’all didn’t see buttigieg’s pep squad???

If people were gagging for charisma, Booker would be doing better seeing as that seems to be the main thing powering his political career.

xp: So what you're telling me is that if African-American turnout drops, it's because they weren't inspired by the candidate and not because Republicans actively kept them from the polls?

castor kind of seemed to just give up here a few minutes ago

the only reason Stacey Abrams isn’t the governor of GA right now is because KKKemp & the GOP did everything possible to prevent black people from voting

xp: So what you're telling me is that if African-American turnout drops, it's because they weren't inspired by the candidate and not because Republicans actively kept them from the polls?

no I am not saying this. I'm saying if African Americans in the South (for ex.) don't get a candidate they like, they won't be as inclined to fight voter suppression efforts because they won't be as excited about who they would be getting to vote for, which will in turn mean those suppression efforts are more likely to succeed, which will drive down turnout, which will rob Democrats of the margins they need to win.

yeah and they *loved* Stacey Abrams! You think they would've fought that hard for fuckin Mayor Pete?!

idg why this point is so hard to grasp, I feel like you guys are arguing with a point I am not making.

from Heavy (xpost)

"Castor was in charge of the Republicans’ probes into President Barack Obama’s administration, including the Internal Revenue Service targeting scandal, and he was the top attorney investigating how U.S. diplomats handled Benghazi, and has become well known for overwhelming officials with demands for answers and documents."

fighting voter suppression requires a motivated, organized base of support. a shitty candidate doesn't garner that motivation or level of organization - they have less money, less resources, fewer lawyers, fewer precinct captains, fewer watchdogs at the polls, fewer people gathering ballots etc. how is this a point of contention.

xps

It's hard to know which candidate "they" will like when it's November 2019. Voters tend to pick winners. When we know the nominee, we'll know to what degree the GOP will accelerate its voter suppression.

I get you, Shakey. I had similar feelings when Jim Barksdale was the GA’s Dem Senate nominee in 2016. Completely uninspiring candidate in a critical election year. (He’s a Tulsi stan now!)

POC were skeptical of Obama until South Carolina.

I know I know, just... things aren't lookin great right now with this pack we've got imo.

fwiw the Dems in 2008 and the Republicans in 2016 each had a "long slog of a primary" and things turned out okay for their nominees

why are we pretending like it's the black vote that fucks everything up?

I thought polls showed that Democratic voters in general are enthusiastic about the current field of candidates?

He even reads it like he's quoting a song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnBKZRtmu6A

To assert that black voters won't respond to a candidate whom you think is unexciting is condescending bullshit, unintended or not.

I wouldn't say "fucks everything up", but it's sure as hell one of the votes the GOP is laser focused on eliminating first and in the highest volume

more than other years every candidate has some vv enthusiastic supporters, and IRL i know people who are going hard for Harris, Warren, Mayor Pete, Bernie, and even Yang iirc.

Thank you, Yerac, for explicitly asking the question I was alluding to because I didn't feel like posting very much in character on this thread

lots of voters will be enthusiastically voting against Trump. I mean look what’s happened today.

i don't think voting *against* someone usually works, usually you want to have some enthusiasm for your candidate even if the opponent is uninspiring or awful, but i think Trump is an exception. plus i think there is a lot of enthusiasm as ppl work out the frontrunners in the primary.

Anybody else getting a Stephen Tobolowsky vibe from Sondland? (talkin', not lookin')

YEP

He is the perfect combination of Stephen Tobolowsky and Wallace Shawn

lots of voters will be enthusiastically voting against Trump. I mean look what’s happened today.

― 💠 (crüt), Wednesday, November 20, 2019 1:26 PM bookmarkflaglink

This is true particularly with Independent voters. Trump will probably start losing them at a rate that he hasn't previously.

Even the low info voters that just parrot whatever TV talking head they heard last are going to notice that the heads are either silent or more solemn.

Roffle

Sondland just yelled "I thought i was done. This is bull shit." to his lawyer off mic.

— sean (@rameswaram) November 20, 2019

I think that’s wishful thinking, unfortunately

Xp to the idea of extremely uninformed people suddenly getting it

lots of voters will be enthusiastically voting against Trump.

This is a huge point that I don't think people — who are used to having two sane candidates on the ballot — are fully dealing with yet. The sheer flames-on-the-side-of-the-face hatred people have for Donald Trump is something political journalists and pollsters refuse to acknowledge or ask about.

Xpost I mean if nothing moves them, then they're essentially Trump voters and part of his base

The general public tends to be skeptical of impeachment but it isn't as if you have to peel away all of those morons, just pockets

There are lots of polls that measure that take into account people who say there’s absolutely no they’d vote for trump. Also, lots of pills measuring republican hatred for _any_ democratic candidate, which is a proxy for total trump support

Sorry, derp posting on my phone

Even from this far away, I can sense Nate Silver beginning to salivate.

This is the first time it really feels like that famous 'like to see ol' donny trump wriggle his way out of *this* jam' might have finally been superseded by events.

And of course it was one of his big donors. Of course.