US Politics, November 2019: These people are truly sick.

lol, great photo

There are plenty of Republican senators from places like Wyoming who don't need any votes from non-Republicans to win elections, But there are enough of them who need 'independent' voters that the caucus won't hold firm and the messaging will start to diverge, doubts will be admitted, some shock will be expressed, a sub-group will confess themselves "deeply troubled" and make public appeals to Trump to honor the subpoenas, etc. These would be the visible preludes to vote-switching.

^ All this being conditioned on a further notable swing in public opinion toward removal.

He ain't getting removed by the Senate.

But this might now start impacting more than just the Presidential election and start hurting the Senate races.

this doesn't change the Senate calculus for GOP Senators at all. As noted, they can't get re-elected without the base. The only ones in danger have already been noted, and there aren't enough of them to make any difference during a Senate trial. The only thing that will move the needle in the Senate GOP caucus is if the GOP base turns against Trump like they did with Dubya, and there are no indications that that is likely to happen.

xps

other than collins, murkowski, and romney I still can't imagine any republicans voting to remove now

agreed and Collins is such a troll now i could almost see her saying fuck it let's be legends.

anyway, Ben Sasse should be spat on in public for the rest of his life.

I imagine the only fallback from this point is that god wanted Trump to ratfuck Biden to save America from abortion and gays

He speaks!

I came into this at Volker’s request. Sondland is speculating based on VERY little contact. I never met him and had very few calls with him, mostly with Volker.

Volker testified I answered their questions and described them as my opinions, NOT demands. I.E., no quid pro quo!

— Rudy Giuliani (@RudyGiuliani) November 20, 2019

In response:

If Rudy's focus on Burisma, 2016 was just opinion, why the hold on the aid, why couldn't Pompeo, Bolton, and Esper get it lifted, ignore his requests? https://t.co/CyEUTlyyTJ

— Mieke Eoyang (@MiekeEoyang) November 20, 2019

Ah for fun

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will be making a statement to the press at State Department at 2:20 pm/ET so stay tuned...

— Amee Vanderpool (@girlsreallyrule) November 20, 2019

Probably be something like "Oh morale's great here."

anyway, Ben Sasse should be spat on in public for the rest of his life.

this cannot be repeated enough times

what this will do is drive outrage against the GOP in general when he gets acquitted in the Senate - the election will be a referendum on the party, and that's good for the Democrats, who are likely to have a weak candidate that doesn't poll that great nationally imo.

what's Trump's approval rate among Republicans going to fall to? 82%?

if that happens the GOP will get completely wiped out in 2020

dunno why anyone cares what Ken Starr thinks, the Dems probably had the articles drafted and the votes to impeach him weeks ago tbrr

xps

I think it's unlikely that the Democrats will have a candidate who polls poorly nationally given they have at least 4 potentials who are polling pretty well when considered independently rather than in comparison to each other

It's cos Ken Starr himself was calling this a bullshit nothingburger and now even he is like..."well, fuck"

Jiggly Panda for Prez

after 6 months of brutal campaigning in which none of them drop out and all of them have knifed each other repeatedly, I'd doubt any of their polling numbers are gonna be better than Hillary's. But we'll see!

xp

this is the first time i've ever listened to nunes; he makes no sense.

a stupid footnote to this era - our president couldn't even spell (not even close) the name of the president of Ukraine, who was a central figure in this whole debacle

nunes is reading from the script that he prepared a couple months ago - he's not a "nimble thinker"

Rudy must have changed his mind because he's already deleted that tweet...

Um

https://i.ibb.co/DWMcvBm/ee4d60b9-f9ee-4b41-9aae-cfc4e2d4fc10.jpg

his is the first time i've ever listened to nunes; he makes no sense.

― Fuck the NRA (ulysses)

nunesense!

I can't see Berniebros, for ex, swallowing their principles and voting for Biden or Mayor Pete, I just don't see it. And vice versa

sondland hates nunes

most of them did for clinton, tho

Plus the bigger issue is voter suppression

most of them did for clinton, tho

― gbx, Wednesday, November 20, 2019 9:47 AM (thirty-six seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

yup. going to post this on ilx for the 100th time, more "bernie bros" voted for clinton in the general than clinton supporters voted for obama in the general in 08

Biden and Pete both demonstrably worse than Hillary policy-wise imo

Plus the bigger issue is voter suppression

― brigadier pudding (DJP), Wednesday, November 20, 2019

can we please keep posting this? Especially if things get uncomfortable for the GOP in Georgia and Texas suburbs.

Plus the bigger issue is voter suppression

this is true. Dem turnout needs to be as high as possible to counter both dynamics.

Need lots of watchdogs, not just at the polls on election days but anytime between now and then where any disenfranchisement at all. Blow each one up and constantly make it national news

Those Trump notes sound like Radiohead lyrics circa Kid A.

you'd think the Smartest Man on the Planet could remember those talking points instead of writing them on notes hmmm maybe he's actually a big dumb turd

Rhyming "Nothing" with "right thing" suggests he's moved slightly past his rhyme dictionary days but not quite ready to drop knowledge on us yet

he has to remind himself he is the president! on paper!

Nunes argues that all of this would be a lot easier if the Whistleblower was revealed

Kind of cool that he got Kanye to be his speechwriter

i'm not a fan of Diamond Joe or Mayor Pete but they don't have the same radioactive reputation as HRC. Their effort to find a scandal to tie Biden to shows their desperate efforts at making it work a second time around. I'm not sure people are going to look at their policies and say "hmm they're worse than HRC so i better throw a vote to Trump again/sit this one out since it doesn't matter." i'm not saying Trump can't win again, but idk...a lot does depend on the next year and momentum. I also don't think Trump's got the same energy and i don't know that his campaign trail bullshit will seem so "fresh" this time.

i don't even know what to do with the whistleblower shit from the republicans, any more. it makes no sense on any level. it's not a good strategy. it's not even current; it's based on conditions last month, before dozens of people corroborated the whistleblower's testimony. the whistleblower's information was secondhand, maybe even thirdhand? the corroborating testimony is from the people who were directly involved, above the whistleblower's level.

there's also the small of issue of how demanding to know the whistleblower's identity goes against everything that the concept of a "whistleblower" stands for, but whatever

I am perfectly willing to believe America would re-elect Donald Trump and I'm also perfectly willing to believe that the power brokers are only so willing to sit idly by and let him continue to set the Republican brand on fire since he's taking the power out of their hands and putting it in his own

as has been said many times, it's a turnout/numbers game. whichever side has more enthusiasm wins. A bunch of ppl going "I guess I'll vote for the Democrat, even though I don't like him/her" is not a reliable base of support, is all I'm saying. It drives down turnout at the margins because you *do* get people not bothering, not donating, not paying attention, etc.

xp

Strongly think that what happens first more than anything else is Rudy finally being cut loose/described as someone who 'did too much' or whatever. (Amusingly, the whole deal with those two cronies of his being arrested provides the clarity here -- SDNY office is interviewing a gas energy buddy of that whole circle this week, for instance.)

Per DJP's point, I think Sondland going "Fuck it" is what causes a lot of his fellow high level GOP money people in general to start thinking "Hmm...my good money after bad?" If the argument is tax cuts, well they got their share (and to hell with them for it), but they don't need Trump now and he's hardly helping in terms of long-term financial stuff.

Amazing

Nunes is now complaining that the whistleblower isn’t testifying to provide secondhand information about records the administration has refused to provide, which is… odd.

— Julian Sanchez (@normative) November 20, 2019

Shakey, you are completely ignoring that the Republican side is going to actively impede the ability of perceived Democratic voters to get to the polls. That's not lack of enthusiasm, that's disenfranchisement. That is what we need to fight.

the point is vengeance and intimidation obv, but nunes has a very weak hand to play with

what bums me out is that none of the Dem front-runners really have that charismatic magic. They are all boring to watch, with the exception of Bernie who is entertainingly cantankerous and has a certain idgaf swagger (but that has a relatively narrow appeal). I know how we like to all argue about plans and policy details and principles etc but the electorate generally isn't driven by those factors, they are much more swayed by a candidate that reflects back at them things they want to believe about themselves and the country ie "I am the type of person that will vote for a smart, funny African American guy". After a long slog of a primary, almost nobody's gonna have that positive glow about the nominee, no matter who it is.

djp otm

I'm not ignoring that! Turnout and enthusiasm can overcome voter suppression by serving as a backstop against it, providing the manpower to resist it/organize against it, overwhelm it w superior numbers etc.

xps

what bums me out is that none of the Dem front-runners really have that charismatic magic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5ibSvOWAMg

I guess my broader point is ppl aren't inclined to fight very hard for candidates they don't feel too strongly about. And that includes both organizing against voter suppression efforts AND actually voting.