Ne'er get thee stitched til Booris be ditched: UK General Election 2019

Re: those independent candidates!

....and the rest. I employed a full time campaign coordinator last week on a 2 month contract which has cost me thousands. I also have an outbuilding FULL of Brexit Party leaflets and signs ready for next weeks launch.

Nigel owes me over TEN GRAND. https://t.co/KxRlVLIyoZ

— Wayne BayIey (@Wayne_BayIey) November 11, 2019

It has to mean a gain in votes for the Tories. Whether it's a significant gain in significant seats...well, we'll see.

Poor old Nige coming across like a deflated balloon this morning, gone the cheeky chappie with the pint of lager beer to hand. Nigel Farage is no longer a fucking hero.

sunak on today in front of a live audience... are they laughing at him ?!

lol they were

Sun, Mail, Times all falling for Farage to pull out of every marginal

not sure BXP and CON votes are completely fungible. there must be a lot of BXP voters who are 1 ex-LAB never tory or 2 anti-govt change voters

He was listlessly still attacking the Tories this morning while at the same time trying to convince the viewers and himself that a video of Boris waffling away shot in two minutes on a Sunday night represented a genuine change in direction by the Tories. Pathetic.

Ex-Labour Never Tory. There used to be a lot of them in Scotland once upon a time.

Yeah I think there will be enough to get Tories the marginals they need. They wouldn't have voted Labour for at least two elections and they are quite a bit way into being converted by voting UKIP already.

The only hope would be enough Brexit Party independents standing.

they all vote for the SNP now

big education policy today

Lol 'hope' it's so grim..

Idk, Farage knows the shit he’s saying is subject to change and reversal as and when, but the people he’s stirred up talking about Boris’s “surrender deal” aren’t going to go along with him on that. They could stay home, they could spoil their ballots, but they could also just turn on him (as they seem to be?). They didn’t want to win the Euro elections, they’ve been spending the past few months trolling Labour MPs and remain leaning MPs with taunts of being “the silent majority” and now what? They’ve had all that taken off them, and they are just going to meekly vote Tory? Some will, obviously, but it’s a lot to take for granted especially when it’s so obvious that Farage (as was always clear) will be the only beneficiary.

they all vote for the SNP now

Who's been voting Tory in Scotland for the last few elections then?

I haven’t seen any analysis on this so could be well wrong but my feeling is that the BXP cohort overlaps strongly with that point during the referendum where the turnout went too high, if anyone remembers. Where the turnout was pushed higher by people who never voted or weren’t regular voters turning out in numbers.

/they all vote for the SNP now/

Who's been voting Tory in Scotland for the last few elections then?

Scottish voting is wild tbf, have seen more than a few Tories in Paul Sweeney’s constituency indicating they’ll lend him their votes to keep the SNP out.

Having had all those "There's more pandas in Edinburgh Zoo than Tory MPs in Scotland" jokes blow up in our faces, excuse me if I'm wary of the They'll Never Vote Tory Up There narrative.

“people are reporting seeing people coming out of estates in sunderland to vote, where people haven’t voted for years” - IDS, minutes after the exit poll came in

xp

ya was just being glib.

there was basically one dynamic at play in the last election in scotland tho: unionist Vs nat. it made it a lot easier for votes to organise into tactical blocs. how it will play out when you have unionist Vs nat + leave Vs remain + LAB’s big retail offer... difficult to predict

Me the last few years: there is NO such thing as a personal vote
Gapesy when he gets back in after his combination of red leaflets & tweeting at best for Britain to make him the tactical voting choice: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIpDSQHWkAAnfGm?format=png&name=large

please I’m lactose intolerant

I like Chris Sutton.

The puzzle is why it took him so long to become a BBC pundit.

there was basically one dynamic at play in the last election in scotland tho: unionist Vs nat. it made it a lot easier for votes to organise into tactical blocs. how it will play out when you have unionist Vs nat + leave Vs remain + LAB’s big retail offer... difficult to predict

You mean in the wake of a divisive referendum the result of a referendum came to be a distorting factor in the subsequent GE? Yeah, one-off, that'll never happen again..

They could stay home, they could spoil their ballots, but they could also just turn on him (as they seem to be?). They didn’t want to win the Euro elections, they’ve been spending the past few months trolling Labour MPs and remain leaning MPs with taunts of being “the silent majority” and now what? They’ve had all that taken off them, and they are just going to meekly vote Tory? Some will, obviously, but it’s a lot to take for granted especially when it’s so obvious that Farage (as was always clear) will be the only beneficiary.

― gyac, Tuesday, 12 November 2019 bookmarkflaglink

I think they need an outlet so can't see them staying at home, or spoiling their ballots - and I think the Tories' pivoting to hard Brexit will do it for them. It is better than Labour's position which offers the possibility of remain, and betrayal. The BXP/UKIP could've mitigated that but if UKIP aren't standing in those seats (their decline is an interesting story in itself, they've had no lack of leaders and yet no one to organise them) then...like I said they will need someone to the right of Johnson to divert them.

What I am seeing is Surrey Tories going Lib Dem, in the same way unhappy Lab voters are -- but in either case it's not enough to defeat the Lab or Tory candidate. But you are relying on utter scum deserting the party and I think that could happen in a post-Brexit hellscape in which we are all poorer, not now.

The only unknown to all of this is Labour's activists knocking on the doors and the energy they bring. Policy and the campaign with a central body coordinating activity, one that is left controlled. But if Farage stands down (he hasn't done so yet..) then that's worse than whatever Lib Dems are up to.

Been reading about outraged Brexit Party candidates who have been stood down by Farage's deal with the Tories. Apparently they not only spent thousands on election literature etc. but also a fee to the party, i.e. its owner, Nigel Farage. It's all, yet again, one big juicy grift.

— I (@trevorbastard) November 12, 2019

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJGQDREXsAAa5CO?format=jpg&name=small

Wayne Bayley, the Brexit PPC for Crawley, Retired pilot, and Scientologist isn't happy with Nige!

is that not a parody account?

i guess the real question is whether it's an intentional parody account

i honestly can't tell the difference these days

lol no he's real!

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/brexit-party-candidate-switching-to-ukip-says-farage-owes-him-10-000-1-6370789

something weird going on with his twitter account though - it was @Wayne_Bayley, then @Wayne_BayIey, now it's @Wayne_Bayley again. will the real Wayne Bayley etc

It was then that Bayley said Farage had cost him much more than £100 in his decision to join the group.

"... And the rest," Bayley replied. "I employed a full time campaign coordinator last week on a two month contract which has cost me thousands. I also have an outbuilding FULL of Brexit Party leaflets and signs ready for next weeks launch.

"Nigel owes me over TEN GRAND."

Hold on, the guy's a Scient0l0gist, he used to giving thousands to crackpot and swindlers.

hard to imagine why a scientologist might find himself drawn to a charismatic charlatan whose entire existence revolves around grifting the disillusioned, the disenfranchised and the terminally stupid

an retired pilot as well, some say travel broadens the mind.

skills wallet well and truly inspected

others say increased exposure to cosmic radiation speeds the growth of brain worms xp

https://www.crawleyobserver.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-party-candidate-for-crawley-denies-posting-expletive-laden-tweet-1-9138456

My guess is that a significant chunk of those Brexit party voters, when deprived of a Brexit Party candidate to vote for, will either vote UKIP is they can or just not vote at all.

I will be one of millions of people who will not vote at all in the General Election. That breaks my heart. I have voted in every election since I was 18 and been involved in politics for over a decade. And I have been disenfranchised by my own party.

— Alexandra Phillips MEP (@BrexitAlex) November 12, 2019

How many UKIP candidates are even bothering to stand at this point? Is it even triple figures?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50387254

He told the BBC: "I would have expected, having put country before party, to perhaps have got something back from the Conservatives.

"But no, nothing is good enough for them."

He added: "It is clear to me it is not a Leave majority they want in Parliament, it is just a Tory one."

Apparently, he wants Boris to stand Conservative candidates down in favour of Brexit party, in those Labour Marginals!

aww, diddums

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-says-it-has-been-hit-by-large-scale-cyber-attack-11859823

I know polls are often just more noise, but I'm interested to see how this stacks up, it would be hilarious if large numbers of the votes caused the re-birth of the UKIP bacilli and significant numbers also went for the rage-quit option. So far farage and johnson seem to be taking the direction these votes go in for granted, unless Boris is suddenly going to declare he's going for the Hardest Brexit ever - build a wall to keep medicine and foreigns out forever.

He added: "It is clear to me it is not a Leave majority they want in Parliament, it is just a Tory one."

Wow, clarity!

I'm guessing a lot of those spent-up ex candidates aren't going to be ex-candidates in about half an hour...

I think what you’re seeing from this reaction is for the Conservative party it is about them as a party, not about delivering Brexit.

lol how dare they! farage has spent his entire professional life crowbarring up every plank in the right-wing platform not labelled racism brexit and has finally lived to see it; but narrow platforms are easy to fall off of