Ne'er get thee stitched til Booris be ditched: UK General Election 2019

BXP launch at 11 today

Is anyone feeling optimistic about this? I've got the same sense of crushing doom I had at this stage in 2017.

Is anyone feeling optimistic about this?

At this stage, neither optimistic nor pessimistic.

New European stort was that BXP were going to focus entirely on taking Labour votes. I don't think there's anywhere they can do this without also pulling Tory votes even if only in protest and they won't get near UKIP '15 share but I do think a couple of seats are still vulnerable enough to them.

I'd rather save my premonitions for later.

BXP have realised they won't get enough Farage airtime if they're not competing for as many seats as possible, and that includes Tory ones.

People are going in on those LibDem bar charts early which is a smart move. Labour won the social media election last time and a lot will depend on whether they can do it again.

Independent not NE btw

I'm v pessimistic but I've lived thru 50 years of shit government so

Of course Labour will win the social media election, it's how many olds they can snag

The middle-aged vote held on very well for Labour but in some areas is more vulnerable to the LibDems this time, so they need to make them look stupid and/or dishonest early.

I've lived through 40 years of Thatcherism/Blairism/ but I reckon 5 more years of these cunts might just finish me off, so I'm very optimistic about death and the prospect of never getting 5 numbers on the Daily Millions draw, but being optimistic about the prospect of anything resembling socialism in the UK would require some stronger drugs for me!

The middle-aged vote held on very well for Labour but in some areas is more vulnerable to the LibDems this time, so they need to make them look stupid and/or dishonest early.

it's not just the erosion of your opportunities, standard of living and hope for the future, it's the knowledge of just how many people you live among are stupid feckless vicious cunts

Who are these Labour 10%ers?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIRtLkqWoAANJC-.png

The Paul Embry types.

This ‘Corbyn is the Devil’ strategy pursued by some Lib Dems seems pretty fundamentally misguided. The biggest losers from it seem likely to be the Lib Dems, not Labour. (Short thread)

— Paul Bernal (@PaulbernalUK) November 1, 2019

This seems fairly convincing re: Swinson.

Read also that Swinson was intending to do a “presidential” campaign, like that wasn’t completely disastrous for Theresa May.

it's almost as if she's a vacuous moron

swindon really does have an incredibly high opinion of herself huh

What happens when you believe your own hype and hang out with too many journalists.

I see the strategy as providing reassurance to Tories in LD-Tory marginals, so in that sense I can see it. If she appeared neutral the press might have a field day.

doesn’t stop newsnight splashing on the “brexit election” every night tho

Three days into the ‘Brexit election’ campaign and so far it has been dominated by debate over:

- The NHS ✅
- The super rich ✅
- Trump ✅
- Brexit ❌

— Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) November 1, 2019

does anyone even watch newsnight tho

This seems fairly convincing re: Swinson.

― Matt DC, Friday, 1 November 2019 10:19 (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

If most of their target seats are currently Conservatives, is part of the thinking here to head off the idea that she's going to work with Corbyn? (and lay the groundwork for going into coalition w Tories if necessary)

Read also that Swinson was intending to do a “presidential” campaign, like that wasn’t completely disastrous for Theresa May.

― gyac,

Has been doing this all along, no? I saw a magazine with her on the cover the other day with "Your Next Prime Minister" as the main headline. Its a weird strategy

(as for being disastrous for May, in seats definitely, but she did improve on Cameron's vote share!)

I don't understand this tweet. She needs Tories to switch to LDs?

The main thrust of the plan, to make Corbyn out to be abysmal, seems more likely to make people vote for Boris Johnson’s Tories. That is unlikely to help the Lib Dems as most of their target seats involve beating those Tories.

— Paul Bernal (@PaulbernalUK) November 1, 2019

Because Cameron lost votes to UKIP and May absorbed most of them.

Starting the campaign off right

Jrimmimmby Crobybiby! You have made it completely and utterly impossible for me, CEO of Offshore Tax Havens Plc and prospective member of the House of Lords, and my extremely poor multimillionaire client list, to vote for you and your so-called "people-powered" manifesto. https://t.co/b88ui270lQ

— epiplexis (@epiplexis_) November 1, 2019

"first they came for the billionaires and I said nothing"

Xyzzz - it's tricky for them either way - most of the LDs target seats are Tory-held, so she needs to communicate that she's anti-Corbyn and won't work with him in order to attract liberal/soft Tory voters who are repelled by Johnson and the Brexit policy. However, a lot of these voters are pretty comfortable and might not care about Corbyn one way or another (these people don't really exist in simplistic political discourse but I bet you there are thousands of them out there). The more the LDs ramp up the apocalyptic rhetoric the more it's likely to make them go 'nah, let's stick with the Tories just to be on the safe side'.

It also makes Labour voters less likely to tactically vote LD, even in areas where Labour is nowhere, and they might need those votes.

"and then society was just... better" xp

doesn’t stop newsnight splashing on the “brexit election” every night tho

As I said upthread, Sky's straplines all say Brexit Election.

Re that young headbanger on QT

#bbcqt, a story in 4 parts: pic.twitter.com/Hb0Cq1tmgD

— Insane Clown Pussy (@misslucyp) October 31, 2019

It's only four and a half years since my first experience of a Tory majority as an adult/voter and I'm glad it only lasted a couple of years.

I really think the days of single party majority are over though, with Brexit pulling and pushing against that in roughly equal measure. I'm optimistic and idealistic when it comes to PR but Swinson should be bringing it up again regardless of polls and as much as I want Labour to get as many votes as possible.

The Tories had a net gain of 18 seats in 2015 and it got them over the line but as it is I'll be shocked if they aren't down at least 10 seats after this, hopefully enough to rule out any coalition.

But let's hear from the 'Labour will get massacred' cru itt again some time k

"Read also that Swinson was intending to do a “presidential” campaign"

damn i already feel like i've seen more of her teeth than her fucking dentist has

yeah, i'm fully expecting some kind of narrow coalition after this election, just extremely nervous about which way the chips are gonna fall

Is anyone feeling optimistic about this? I've got the same sense of crushing doom I had at this stage in 2017.

I have a sense of crushing doom when I watch more than 30 seconds coverage of this Brexit Election. Otherwise not too bad, I mean obviously the Tories are going to win.

Part of the issue is that Brexit felt like much more of a foregone conclusion in 2017. It doesn't now.

what do we think of the “tories making shit content for organic shares” theory? BJ’s video last night was shocking and he looked rattled but has racked up 500k views - albeit quite a lot of those will be accompanied by a “ffs state of this” QT

comes back to the is he machieavelli or baldrick question I guess

Yeah even the Happy Halloween one was probably deliberately off key really. I prefer the idea that they keep pushing this more and more that it really backfires of course.

May was always a baldrick, johnson basically is too, however he has his collection of ghouls who are more on the machiavelli side, so dirty tricks are to be expected at the very least

no way does paul m.brie represent 10% of labour voters. mb 10% might take him vaguely seriously

However, a lot of these voters are pretty comfortable and might not care about Corbyn one way or another (these people don't really exist in simplistic political discourse but I bet you there are thousands of them out there). The more the LDs ramp up the apocalyptic rhetoric the more it's likely to make them go 'nah, let's stick with the Tories just to be on the safe side'.

It also makes Labour voters less likely to tactically vote LD, even in areas where Labour is nowhere, and they might need those votes.

― Matt DC, Friday, 1 November 2019 bookmarkflaglink

On your first point I think that those left-wing policies coupled with Corbyn's anti-imperialism is kinda repellant to people on the centre who voted between Clegg and Cameron. Maybe a lot of them can see through some of it in regards to Lab's Brexit policy, or it's Green policy (some overlap between those centre right and Greens too).

Totally agree on the 2nd point though. The LDs have not gone for a balanced approach on this at all.

BXP will have 500 candidates

Means they will be up against most tories, which is good?

game on

oh boy i can't wait to see the calibre of candidates they've managed to rustle up

LOLz, yes.

May was always a baldrick, johnson basically is too,

One of the things that gives me hope is Johnson is a shit campaigner and lazy and useless if goaded or under pressure or faced with people who don't buy into his shitty persona.

There is no way Johnson can accept the ultimatum of dropping the Withdrawal Agreement which is Farage’s ask. Farage must know this so I assume it’s an offer designed to be rejected. So we must assume the Brexit Party will contest virtually every seat. No “leave alliance”

— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) November 1, 2019

why can't our big brexit boys just get along ;_;

Day 2 off to a good start