Ne'er get thee stitched til Booris be ditched: UK General Election 2019

we sometimes get the Yorkshire Party who are affiliated iirc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2vP_H-Ulwg

is the conservative election slogan really "britain deserves better" ? 🤔

conservatives otm tbf

no, I think Britain is getting moreorless what it deserves

i think so too but it's horrible that the ppl who will get it most in the neck are the ones who've earned it least :(

Sorry, got a lot of posts to wade through before I catch up, but Michael said upthread "(There are fewer constituencies in the capital than there were, mind)."

Why is that the case when the population of London must have gone up by 1 or 2 million?

tories were planning a redrawing of constituency boundaries, which don't just redraw themselves when ppl move -- but this hasn't happened yet (i guess it was one too many hot potatoes in the trifle)
.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/10/uk-parliamentary-boundary-changes-final-plans-unveiled

Seriously do not think I can face 5 weeks of film crews leaving London to find 'ordinary people' in the North and the Midlands who are prepared to say, "I've voted Labour all my life but..."

We've already had three years of that

same. xp

Why is that the case when the population of London must have gone up by 1 or 2 million?

Good question, though the population of London fell, census by census, from the '30s (when 18% of the UK lived in the capital) to the '90s (when it was more like 11%) so there was probably an overdue corrective to over-representation? London had 93 constituencies in the '70s, 84 1983-92 and 73 since the 1997 election. But the growth of London has outstripped the rest of the country in the last 20 years, so really there should be more like 80-85 again now.

Big old pain in the arse to redraw boundaries though.

Seriously do not think I can face 5 weeks of film crews leaving London to find 'ordinary people' in the North and the Midlands who are prepared to say, "I've voted Labour all my life but..."

We've already had three years of that

Not every single day though.

mark s at 9:25 30 Oct 19
i think so too but it's horrible that the ppl who will get it most in the neck are the ones who've earned it least :(

Good thread on yesterday's fiasco

Your "tactical vote dashboard" is telling voters to vote Lib Dem in Truro & Falmouth.

Here was the 2017 result in Truro & Falmouth:

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 38% (+23)
LD: 15% (-2)
OTH: 3% (-17) https://t.co/vUFsUa5V17

— Stats for Lefties 🌹 🌹 (@LeftieStats) October 30, 2019

Check out the small print on this. The @LibDems are not a serious political party. https://t.co/nzNC7qpV0b

— Greggs Truther (@invisibleste) October 31, 2019

LibDems employing more deceptive bullshit in their desperate scramble for tactical votes.

2017 result

Conservative

Jacob Rees-Mogg Votes28,992 header_vote_share53.6% Net percentage change in seats+3.9
Party
Labour

Robin Moss Votes18,757 header_vote_share34.7% Net percentage change in seats+9.9
Party
Liberal Democrat

Manda Rigby Votes4,461 header_vote_share8.3%

don't worry guys i'm sure the national media will be all over this fake news scandal

As has been pointed out, the small print says 'imagine if it's a content between Rees-Mogg and the Lib Dems and no other party had any chance of winning, who would you vote for' and they still lose by six.

The takes are scalding hot lads

Any tactical voting tool will have glitches and teething trouble. If you demand transparency, how about some in return? There’s no tactical voting tool a Labour apparatchik will like, because you don’t want people to vote tactically. Your aim is to frame this as a two-horse race.

— Alex Andreou (@sturdyAlex) October 30, 2019

It’s data. The critics emphasise the 2017 GE. The site includes 2019 local and EU elections.

Let’s just sift through the various probabilities than cry ‘liar’ all the time.

Save that for Johnson

— Peter Jukes (@peterjukes) October 30, 2019

TACTICAL VOTING ADVICE: Try the tactic of voting for the Labour Party, because they represent the only hope for a better society.

— Avery Edison (@aedison) October 31, 2019

Terrific story. Brexit Party instructions to prospective candidates: “Important. Please all go DARK on social media. DO NOT respond to any questions about where we [are] standing, what the strategy or plan is from now on. Things will be made clear . . . very soon.” https://t.co/dyg8fVQkvG

— Tony Bonsignore (@Tony_Bee) October 30, 2019

Any tactical voting tool will have glitches and teething trouble although the fact that the glitches all work to benefit one party must be some kind of long odds coincidence.

it's very early in the campaign to be in a murderous fury, hat tip to the Lib Dems and the FBPE massive

love the Brexit Party's SAS fantasies showing in public let's go DARK

Read a really interesting thread on the kind of unregulated modelling of data that produces these kinds of tactical voting sites

Do we think Brexit Party voters will easily switch Tory just because there is some sort of deal in place?

i'd imagine a lot of them will vote for the newly purged Tories anyway and any deal from the Brexit Party will be more about Farage saving face and maintaining the illusion of his influence rather than strategic considerations

Last election’s massive Tory vote was buoyed from the UKIP vote, so you’d expect similar things this time. Disillusioned ones might stay home.

9.30am: The Lib Dems launch their election slogan, which will be on a poster on a van that will later drive around Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency and Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington North constituency.

i assume the slogan will read "Take Me I'm Yours"

xp RIP Dick Braine, we hardly knew you

Do we think Brexit Party voters will easily switch Tory just because there is some sort of deal in place?

― xyzzzz__,

Depends where they came from, pre Brexit Party, but I don't see why not. I think most Brexit voters aren't particularly purist about the form it takes, it just needs to feel like a win. Its existential anyway, doesn't matter what form it actually takes. Don't see Brexit Party doing particularly well.

Brexit Party going in hard on Boris for breaking his promise to leave on Oct. 31... by talking about withdrawing from contesting Tory Leave seats and concentrating on Labour Leave seats instead Huzzah!

Makes sense for them, don't think they can compete with Boris now

lol they're actually doubling down:

Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, defended the voting guide. “Our tool uses MRP analysis, which is the only model that correctly predicted the shock wins for Labour in 2017, like Canterbury and Kensington,” she said.

“Based on a sample of 46,000 people, our data is very robust and our Peterborough byelection prediction got the Labour vote share correct within 0.6%. The tool will be updated with the data for each seat in the next day or so. We expect to back Labour in over 370 seats in England and 180 or so Lib Dems. The tool only covers England and Wales.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/tactical-voting-could-deliver-remain-victory-in-election-study

Makes sense for them, don't think they can compete with Boris now

Well, we're fucked then, innit.

BXP votes not concentrated in the home counties?

still optimistic regardless

Lets see, all to play for,

Cons/LD Coalition at 18/1 doesn't look a bad shout

Yes it does.

don't worry there might be the seasonal spirit of Tiny TimGoebbels in a santa hat following some of these shy Bxp voters into the polling stations!

think the cholesterol-laden scythe of feath must be doing away with some of the gammon, surely, do they factor this in? of course some of them are blue rinse ladies who will live to 110 out of spite.

yeah feath is a word now

the actor hugh grant is currently refusing to shake the hand of sajid javid the UK's working class chancellor of the exchequer

The Scythe of Feath is surely a fantasy novel waiting to be written.

had no idea the chancellor was a working class geezer you'd think he'd mention it more

he grew up somewhere so rough that people would scrawl graffiti on bus stops and call coppers complete knobheads!

This from a man who has pledged millions to put more knobheads on the street.

Well, we're fucked then, innit.

― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Thursday, 31 October 2019 10:53

I don't think so but it goes back to how much more popular and convincing Johnson is now compared to May 18 months ago. I don't see enough of a difference between them on those bases. Brexit party targets are/were mostly Labour seats that were MORE winnable for them than the Tories.

And us being fucked really relies on the polls now suddenly being far more accurate than they were before the last two GEs right? Argh this fucking optimism etc.

They were never going to win any seats the only use for them is taking votes off the Tories, which I hoped they'd be better at than UKIP.

like most tories ropy origin stories, people that grew up with The Saj completely dispute his "moving" tale of struggle/strife, overcoming insurmountable odds etc and say he was a molly-coddled dickhead.