Open for Business: Canadian Politics 2019

Does anyone know much about the Fredericton riding? Is it centred around a university? I'm curious about the Green pickup there.

― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Monday, October 21, 2019 9:57 PM (five minutes ago)bookmarkflaglink

It has 2 universities and a college and has elected a green mla a couple times

he holds the balance of power tho, so despite losing a bunch of seats he arguably has more power than any federal NDP leader in my lifetime.

Layton was in a similar situation under Martin but, yep, I totally agree that Singh's caucus will have more power than the NDP had in the two previous Parliaments; that was what I meant.

Thanks, jim.

looks like the east coast were hit with misleading robocalls from one of the "canada proud/strong" groups. hopefully more than some rando jr staffer go to prison over this. conservatives got off super easy last time, so obviously we're seeing it happening again.

xpost - i had totally forgot how close that minority situation was for Martin/Layton.

Trudeau sorta looking like the loser there.

those speeches were a clusterfuck

Like Simon said, this is the best possible realistic outcome. It’s sad to see the NDP get swept off the map in Quebec by the Bloc, though – the latter have more seats than the former now.

As for Scheer, he just wasn't ready.

(Sorry.)

Trudeau a genius for not doing electoral reform (Scheer won the popular vote).

come on now Justin, let's buy all them oilfields

If it'd been a multiparty system it had been a landslide for the center-left, though? Liberals + NDP + Green gets 55% of the vote, that's a lot!

The really wild vote/seat discrepancy is that the NDP got double the Bloc's votes but 8 fewer seats

I'm extremely pleased that Bernier has failed so completely he/his party aren't even being mentioned in the round-up coverage

Sole downside is little to no vote splitting on the right.

yes the bloc does rather poorly outside Quebec.....

I was referring to the PPC but maybe I'm missing something?

Is there a compelling explanation beyond simple racism for the NDP's collapse in support in QC?

I'd say a mix of racism, nationalism and dogmatic laïcité (almost but not quite the same thing).

Close enough.

Plus, with Legault at the helm, Quebec is actively trying to shed whatever left-wing cred it may have garnered over the past few decades, so today's results are also an extension of that.

Any thoughts on Montreal's near unanimity for the Liberals?

on economic and environmental issues, Bloc platform was extremely robust - at least as good as NDP

re montreal
people don't like Laicité here, so Bloc will struggle
NDP barely fought the election outside of Boulerice's riding

I feel like if Québec Solidaire could elect several MPs in Montreal, NDP could have also. That seems like a missed opportunity.

agree 100%

If it'd been a multiparty system it had been a landslide for the center-left, though? Liberals + NDP + Green gets 55% of the vote, that's a lot!

Not sure what you mean? It is a mulitparty system and it was a victory for the centre-left. The Liberals are definitely going to work with the NDP to govern. Do you mean if it were a PR system?

Quebec Solidaire is much much closer to Bloc in essence than the NDP. QS are really just nationalist that dislike the PQ/Bloc going increasingly right wing since Parizeau/Bouchard.

I really believed there was more dissatisfaction with Trudeau in Montreal.

Like Simon said, this is the best possible realistic outcome.

It's actually my preferred outcome. For their faults, the Liberals are the party of federalism, multiculturalism, and bilingualism, and I think they are the best option to fight nationalism and xenophobia. Trudeau is - ironically - much more willing to fight Bill 21 than Singh, for example. I also think they have done OK with the economy. Needing NDP/Green support should hopefully pull them left on the environment and economic/labour justice and discourage corruption.

the cynic in me thinks that if the NDP does manage to wring concessions, the Libs will just fold the associated progress into their brand and secure a majority next time out

Makes sense! I definitely feel optimistic going forward, especially since I plan on moving back asap.

xp

xp
yeah slowly understanding the Canadian political system has entailed slowly realizing how similar it is to the US two-party system in terms of outcome. That said, pulling the Dems to the left is the best possible national-level political goal, so a Liberal party that sees moving left as the way to secure a majority doesn't strike me as so bad (of course, the idea that "third" parties could hold power is literally foreign to me, so I understand the disappointment).

the cynic in me thinks that if the NDP does manage to wring concessions, the Libs will just fold the associated progress into their brand and secure a majority next time out

― Simon H., Tuesday, October 22, 2019 8:58 AM (seven minutes ago)

i think the other problem is when you're a party with 15% propping up a larger party you'll also get the blame when things go wrong - which they definitely will this parliament, we're due a downturn for instance

From a purely trivial POV I’m relieved we’ve avoided years of unclever “Scheer” puns.

Trudeau should leave bill 21 alone.

It was specifically built to create a wedge with federalism and create a sense of victimization among quebecois. If you widen that wedge, you will embolden nationalist sentiment to degrees not seen since 1995, and also create even more racism and resentment towards minorities. Nationalists are merely using muslims to make a crybaby point about their situation within Canada; every time anglos criticize the bill, the crybaby grows.

The bill was also built to put the courts in the middle of the debate. The fashionable right wing populist notion is that courts stand against the will of the people, if Trudeau enters the fray, he will further diminish the validity of those courts in the eye of the Quebec people and continue to embolden that disgusting discourse.

Imo the best course of action is to let the judiciary and the constitution do their jobs, let the provincial and federal courts deal with the eventual fallout, prevent similar situations outside of Quebec and create direct action to help those affected by the law. I’m afraid more forceful federal actions are going to permanently break Quebec in half (Montreal/ROQ) and without Montreal, Quebec is destined to separate.

otm

Is there a compelling explanation beyond simple racism for the NDP's collapse in support in QC?

― Simon H., Tuesday, October 22, 2019 6:10 AM (three hours ago)

The NDP have never been popular in Quebec, except for 2011. I don't discount Quebec racism at all, but I think any other NDP leader would have been wiped out there too.

i think the other problem is when you're a party with 15% propping up a larger party you'll also get the blame when things go wrong - which they definitely will this parliament, we're due a downturn for instance

― Seany's too Dyche to mention (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, October 22, 2019 12:08 PM (twenty-eight minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

The liberal brand has much more to win blaming conservative provinces and opposition so I doubt it will happen.

I think Simon is otm that the most likely outcome is that the Liberals eat the progressives into their tent, which I don't see as a problem, as long as progressive policies happen I'm okay. But it's already kind of the lesson of the last two elections: Trudeau and the Liberals can only go as far as the progressives voters will allow him to.

Yeah 2011 happened because usual Liberals voters were mad because of Sponsorgate and Layton was seen as one of us. Quebec never truly cared for NDP and never will. Federalist quebecers have all they ever wanted with the Liberals which is tailor-made for them. Nationalist quebecers surely don't care for a federalist party. We don't have a NDP at the provincial level. Boulerice wins because Boulerice is awesome and everyone loves him in the riding (including me).

the cynic in me thinks that if the NDP does manage to wring concessions, the Libs will just fold the associated progress into their brand and secure a majority next time out

It has happened almost every time the NDP has pulled the strings of a Liberal minority: after Tommy Douglas got Pearson to implement universal health coverage across the country, (Pierre)Trudeaumania was his reward. After PET created Petro-Canada as a Crown Corporation with NDP support, he won a majority in 1975. After the Liberal-NDP Accord in the 80s in Ontario, the Libs won a majority, as they did in 2013. We still got those policies, though!

Trudeau should leave bill 21 alone.

It was specifically built to create a wedge with federalism and create a sense of victimization among quebecois. If you widen that wedge, you will embolden nationalist sentiment to degrees not seen since 1995, and also create even more racism and resentment towards minorities. Nationalists are merely using muslims to make a crybaby point about their situation within Canada; every time anglos criticize the bill, the crybaby grows.

B-b-but the Trudeaus aren't anglos (although they're definitely Montreal elites)!

The bill was also built to put the courts in the middle of the debate. The fashionable right wing populist notion is that courts stand against the will of the people, if Trudeau enters the fray, he will further diminish the validity of those courts in the eye of the Quebec people and continue to embolden that disgusting discourse.

I found Hébert convincing on this - that it is normal and standard practice for governments, including Quebec's, to get involved in constitutional court cases: https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/10/09/the-fate-of-quebecs-bill-21-will-be-decided-by-the-courts-not-by-the-federal-election.html

That said, you might be right about what is politically safest here.

My hope is that Singh is able to wring those concessions while also sharpening the NDP's brand as a genuine left alternative to avoid having their achievements totally co-opted. As much as he has grown on me, I'm not convinced yet he's up to this task.

OTM on all counts

I found Hébert convincing on this - that it is normal and standard practice for governments, including Quebec's, to get involved in constitutional court cases: https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/10/09/the-fate-of-quebecs-bill-21-will-be-decided-by-the-courts-not-by-the-federal-election.html

That said, you might be right about what is politically safest here.

― All along there is the sound of feedback (Sund4r), Tuesday, October 22, 2019 1:01 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Hebert is the best and I think she is otm. I haven't thought of the double standard CAQ/PQ/Bloc find themselves in.

I think the NDP is already seen as the genuine left alternative and also got clobbered. As long as the Liberals run as NDP Red, slightly to the center of them, I don't see a future for the NDP other than one of cooperation and keeping Liberals progressive credentials in check. They've done well to solidify enough left voices to move the Liberals into their territory as an electoral necessity but I don't see how they can ask for much more considering how little support they get across the nation. I wouldn't ask them to go contrary to the map last night's election presented.

Imo the "genuine left alternative" branding hasn't been consistent at all.

I felt Singh went as left as the electorate realistically allowed him to and kept at it.

*went* is the thing there. I think it was too late a shift. If he can keep the pressure up in government, maybe it'll be a different story next time around.

At any rate regardless of electoral returns it's the right thing to do. The Liberals' record has been woeful on so many things.

he kind of went left at the end a bit it seemed.

last night feels like a victory (especially for jagmeet) purely because the party wasn't decimated, and because - through pure chance - they hold the balance of power. but is that really that much of a victory? when you can only get 15% when running against mr blackface pipeline buyer go to court to fight indigenous kids it seems like there's really not a "progressive" vote to chase in this country

Also, I have no idea how the conservatives are going to build a coalition when the Canadian electorate clearly cares enough about the environment to have 60% of the vote going to pro-environment parties. Either they ditch the anti-carbon tax pro-fossil fuel stance and they lose a lot of their base in the Prairies, or they continue working with a very limited ceiling that just keep shrinking and shrinking as climate reality sinks in.