PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

John Mann, what a hideous piece of shit.

John Mann is on the right of the party and afaict a fair chunk of the people he’s talking about are on the left - entirely possible for Corbyn & McDonnell to sway them I’d say.

The people he's talking about are not on the left, afaict.

May give him an adviser on antisemitism role before she was gone.

There was about five Lab MPs who voted for May's deal last time, right?

yeah this is what i thought, a few more who signed this letter to the EU tho? the numbers are all speculative and nobody speculating is impartial

Pretty sure Mann is referring to the Skinnock Krew.

19 or 20 of them apparently? And, yes, I could definitely see them voting for the deal.

yeah, the 19 allegedly Pro Any Deal Labour MPs, but when you look at the number of those with nothing to lose, like Mann that number drops sharply. would love to see how the horse-trading is going.

even if they aren't expelled - and ffs why not? - i don't think handing Boris Johnson a victory and potentially a victory General Election is going to do much for their prospective future Labour careers

banter heuristic has kind of always demanded that centrists do Brexit tho

You love to see this though, so you do...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/rival-unionists-accuse-dup-of-catastrophic-brexit-miscalculation

19 or 20 of them apparently? And, yes, I could definitely see them voting for the deal.

― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Friday, 18 October 2019 bookmarkflaglink

I don't, and in any case that won't be enough as no DUP and some Tories will vote against.

All will be revealed tomorrow.

What Tories are going to vote against the deal?

even if they aren't expelled - and ffs why not? - i don't think handing Boris Johnson a victory and potentially a victory General Election is going to do much for their prospective future Labour careers

The calculation is that they'll hold on to their seats while all around others are falling as Labour get annihilated, Corbyn and McDonnell have to resign, bright new day with Keir Starmer or David Miliband or someone as leader.

That's good fiction, have you thought of submitting it?

The Tories that have left the party since 2017, and maybe some who have lost the whip?

What Tories are going to vote against the deal?

/even if they aren't expelled - and ffs why not? - i don't think handing Boris Johnson a victory and potentially a victory General Election is going to do much for their prospective future Labour careers/

The calculation is that they'll hold on to their seats while all around others are falling as Labour get annihilated, Corbyn and McDonnell have to resign, bright new day with Keir Starmer or David Miliband or someone as leader.

That's good fiction, have you thought of submitting it?

It's speculative fiction whereas what you seem to be dealing in is fantasy.

So the Tories who have joined the lib Dems are voting for the deal and that's a fantasy? Ok then

Those aren't Tories. They aren't under discussion. I recommend you look at the actual numbers.

Ditto Soubz and Change UK, if they still exist.

They are a few less Tories who have joined another party and haven't been replaced by other Tories. I suggest you look at your numbers.

Yeah, I don't understand why there's no threat to expel those voting for this

meanwhile it looks like there's another hot Jolyon second front in the Scottish High Court, predicated precisely on the sidestep of the backstop

i have missed Chucklevision tbf

RIP Worzel

I'm sure Harold Shipman enjoyed his job but it was best for the rest of us when he stopped

— elliot (@wlleiotl) October 18, 2019

xps to Tom D - What am I missing here? Johnson is trying to pass this deal on the numbers May got in 2017. There is no DUP. Tories have been lost to other parties. And Johnson has removed the whip from another 20. Can't be totally relied on but not all of them are leave Tories.

The ERG are on-board, mostly. The Tories that have been lost seem like they will mostly vote for Brexit, as they have in the past — especially if they want to find some route back into the party.

I'm not sure it will pass but I can see it being very tight. A huge amount depends on Lab.

even if they aren't expelled - and ffs why not? - i don't think handing Boris Johnson a victory and potentially a victory General Election is going to do much for their prospective future Labour careers

(xp) The ERG voted against May's deal and I reckon they will all vote for this deal.

This sets it out, I agree there's a fair bit of speculation involved but I don't see, given the numbers, where any great confidence in the deal being voted down is coming from.

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-the-pm-needs-320-votes-from-mps-for-his-deal-to-pass-is-that-likely-11838158

By voting for Brexit they keep Johnson in which means it's less likely they will get back in the party?

We all agree it will be close.

I don't think it will make it less likely - Johnson has been warm to talk of them returning (and Cummings won't give a shit after the WA is passed)

Graham stringer has said he’ll decide which way he votes tomorrow, but in the meantime:

EXCLUSIVE: Tory Right-wingers asking Attorney General to confirm UK could crash out "no deal" in a year if no free trade deal struck with EU - full story @joemurphylondon and @nicholascecil https://t.co/DQXTEosHge

— nicholas cecil (@nicholascecil) October 18, 2019

bush being depressing. i don’t understand why you wouldn’t be clear you’d withdraw the whip:


It’s definitely the essence of successful trade policy – Johnson achieved his triumph by abandoning Cummingesque rants about decisive victories over Ireland and the Remainers but by finding areas of mutual advantage and interest. And if this deal passes – and given that Labour looks unlikely to withdraw the whip from Labour rebels who vote for it its chances look fairly good – then the ability to find mutual advantage and interest will become the core of our future prosperity.

But is our political discourse capable of engaging with those trade-offs and challenges? Watching the TV news, where the Brexit process is being flattened into an argument about who won, and who lost, I’m not convinced that our political debate about the realities of Brexit or its aftermath is as developed as we might hope.

osama_thumbs_up.jpg

Remainer Stuart Rose, who was chairman of the main Britain Stronger in Europe campaign against Brexit, tells @BBCr4today he backs Johnson's deal. "We have got to move on... reflect on pros and cons... lean in..."
Big PR boost for the PM

— Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) October 18, 2019

Been through this cycle a few times now:

Infighting on this issue is heating up - just received this text from a senior Labour insider:

“Lansman's move to boot out MPs would have as much chance of success as Lansman's move to remove Watson. Zero, without Jeremy's support”

— Tom Rayner (@RaynerSkyNews) October 18, 2019

Apparently one of the ERG-ers is going around saying Boris Johnson’s deal could make a no-deal Brexit possible at the end of next year, when the transition ends - which, usefully, might spook some of the waverers to vote against. I hope.

all anti-waverer ammunition welcome at this stage tbh

But is our political discourse capable of engaging with those trade-offs and challenges? Watching the TV news, where the Brexit process is being flattened into an argument about who won, and who lost, I’m not convinced that our political debate about the realities of Brexit or its aftermath is as developed as we might hope.

depressingly otm. so, whatever happens about Brexit, what can we plebs everyday folks do about this?

I mean yes, probably less chance to do anything about it if we go down the whole deregulation/Americanisation Tory Brexithole.

PS I know I keep asking stupid questions which are too boring/obvious to answer but does anyone know what time the vote is likely to be tomorrow?

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/696730079e6a63359956b635680ee50774b2b604/0_214_6720_4032/master/6720.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=d442ffb322659f4592b3219efcf9fc48

i regret to inform you that led by donkeys are back on their bullshit with this strident message ploughed into a blameless wiltshire field

Another thing to think about is what amendments get selected tomorrow and if any of them can wreck the deal

Some Spartans frustrated at Sammy Wilson / Ian Paisley Jnr / Nigel Dodds counter-whipping operation trying to get them to oppose the deal

One says Wilson in particular is being “annoying” and is hell-bent on no-deal

Sammy annoying? Hard to credit tbh.

fwiw this is simon richards's votecount spreadsheet (aka twitter's @simonk_133, account currently locked): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13ghQytueisTWtO12HXvCSyRV_LnPGlDJob8rJWLVKe8/edit#gid=0

if he's right -- he's EXTREMELY circumspect about it! -- the deal goes down by 1

lol and now a tidier attempt:
fwiw this is simon richards's votecount spreadsheet (aka twitter's @simonk_133, account currently locked):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13ghQytueisTWtO12HXvCSyRV_LnPGlDJob8rJWLVKe8/edit#gid=0

if he's right -- he's EXTREMELY circumspect about it! -- the deal goes down by 1

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2Fl4FATJpd4LWgeruTK%2Fgiphy.gif&f=1&nofb=1

That spreadsheet with the deal losing by 1 vote seems to have Jared O'Mara down as voting against, but he's surely not going to turn up, so...

...I don't think I can bring myself to finish this sentence. I'm going to look out of the window, maybe there are some good ducks or pigeons out there right now

So it looks like it comes down to 13 Kinnock Letter Labour MPs - which includes the dreaded Skinnock himself.

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fimg.huffingtonpost.com%2Fasset%2F5a136159140000891d50e7dc.gif%3Fops%3Dscalefit_630_noupscale&f=1&nofb=1

look mum and dad, I'm a very important Labour MP for a day!

Not saying get your hopes up BUT

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-parliaments-50098128

The Letwin amendment. A serious problem for the Govt, as would allow wavering Labour and Tory MPs to kick the can down the road rather than decide tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/zdlRq02OhT

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) October 18, 2019

Good thread on removal of whip. I guess in this kind of vote it might not matter

Not at all confident here, but I think I may be right in saying that no Labour MP has lost the whip for voting against the whip for more than 50 years.

— Lafargue (@Lafargue) October 18, 2019