PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

so far most of the talk i've heard about Labour melts has been from right wing pundits and sounds more like wishful thinking than serious trouble on the horizon but it's going to be some kind of a weekend whatever and good luck UK Former Rump Nations of the UK England and Wales

Johnson has never given a stuff about NI and the union so this shouldn’t really come as a surprise to anyone.

Very much the default for a member of the Conservative (& Unionist) Party I'd say.

When is the vote tomorrow scheduled for?

HE'S READY

oh god i read some comments tho :(

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEbkJsLXoAASyVF?format=jpg&name=small

some local Tories I'm silently stalking for the lol Yorkshire Gothic Lynchian imagery, 2nd left Beth Prescott unsuccessfully stood against Paula Sherriff in '17.

i thought you had to be 18?

ban these sick cults

another one for the 'faces you see when you wake up hanging from a meat hook' file

he Labour MP John Mann has predicted that “more than nine” of his parliamentary colleagues will vote for Johnson’s deal on Saturday.

The Bassetlaw MP told RTE radio on Friday morning he would be voting for the Johnson deal with other prepared to risk the Labour whip and join him.

“I think there will be more Labour MPs [voting for the deal] than British media have been speculation this morning,” he said adding that this was because these MPs saw no deal as a worse option.

He told the Sean O’Rourke show that Labour MPs who were saying the deal would erode workers rights were “wrong” because it would be up to parliament to confirm anything set out in the political declaration in the next set of negotiations for a trade deal. If parliament wanted to “reduce workers rights”, then “more fool them” he said.

'yeah we'll open the door to creating a usa-style hellscape for powerless workers crushed by draconian new at-will employment laws but we're hoping that we won't then let corporations march right through it, it'll probably all be fine'

I think he's right though, enough Labour MPs will vote for the deal for it to pass.

what a heartbreaking loss John Mann is to the Labour movement

anybody who says they're voting for this deal because otherwise it'd be no deal is a liar, a moron and a cunt

oh yeah, me too, just grimly amused by his awareness of exactly what they're signing up for and what it will almost inevitably mean for workers despite the figleaf of 'oh gee whiz i hope it won't happen!' xxp

"it would be up to parliament to confirm anything set out in the political declaration in the next set of negotiations for a trade deal"

is this true? I thought the political declaration would not (necessarily) be ratified by parliament, and trade deals don't go through parliament? For that matter what about those Henry VIII powers to bypass parliamentary scrutiny; when can they be used? Sorry for silly questions.

And of course our Tory-stuffed parliament will definitely not do anything to reduce anyone's rights even if it does get a vote, sure, yes.

anybody who says they're voting for this deal because otherwise it'd be no deal is a liar, a moron and a cunt

especially since angela merkel has said this morning that an extension would be unavoidable if the deal is voted down

There are plenty of all three in the PLP, of course.

John Mann is on the right of the party and afaict a fair chunk of the people he’s talking about are on the left - entirely possible for Corbyn & McDonnell to sway them I’d say.

Mann isn't even in the party any more

so there may be some ulterior motives behind his bullshit

John Mann, what a hideous piece of shit.

John Mann is on the right of the party and afaict a fair chunk of the people he’s talking about are on the left - entirely possible for Corbyn & McDonnell to sway them I’d say.

The people he's talking about are not on the left, afaict.

May give him an adviser on antisemitism role before she was gone.

There was about five Lab MPs who voted for May's deal last time, right?

yeah this is what i thought, a few more who signed this letter to the EU tho? the numbers are all speculative and nobody speculating is impartial

Pretty sure Mann is referring to the Skinnock Krew.

19 or 20 of them apparently? And, yes, I could definitely see them voting for the deal.

yeah, the 19 allegedly Pro Any Deal Labour MPs, but when you look at the number of those with nothing to lose, like Mann that number drops sharply. would love to see how the horse-trading is going.

even if they aren't expelled - and ffs why not? - i don't think handing Boris Johnson a victory and potentially a victory General Election is going to do much for their prospective future Labour careers

banter heuristic has kind of always demanded that centrists do Brexit tho

You love to see this though, so you do...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/rival-unionists-accuse-dup-of-catastrophic-brexit-miscalculation

19 or 20 of them apparently? And, yes, I could definitely see them voting for the deal.

― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Friday, 18 October 2019 bookmarkflaglink

I don't, and in any case that won't be enough as no DUP and some Tories will vote against.

All will be revealed tomorrow.

What Tories are going to vote against the deal?

even if they aren't expelled - and ffs why not? - i don't think handing Boris Johnson a victory and potentially a victory General Election is going to do much for their prospective future Labour careers

The calculation is that they'll hold on to their seats while all around others are falling as Labour get annihilated, Corbyn and McDonnell have to resign, bright new day with Keir Starmer or David Miliband or someone as leader.

That's good fiction, have you thought of submitting it?

The Tories that have left the party since 2017, and maybe some who have lost the whip?

What Tories are going to vote against the deal?

/even if they aren't expelled - and ffs why not? - i don't think handing Boris Johnson a victory and potentially a victory General Election is going to do much for their prospective future Labour careers/

The calculation is that they'll hold on to their seats while all around others are falling as Labour get annihilated, Corbyn and McDonnell have to resign, bright new day with Keir Starmer or David Miliband or someone as leader.

That's good fiction, have you thought of submitting it?

It's speculative fiction whereas what you seem to be dealing in is fantasy.

So the Tories who have joined the lib Dems are voting for the deal and that's a fantasy? Ok then

Those aren't Tories. They aren't under discussion. I recommend you look at the actual numbers.

Ditto Soubz and Change UK, if they still exist.

They are a few less Tories who have joined another party and haven't been replaced by other Tories. I suggest you look at your numbers.

Yeah, I don't understand why there's no threat to expel those voting for this

meanwhile it looks like there's another hot Jolyon second front in the Scottish High Court, predicated precisely on the sidestep of the backstop

i have missed Chucklevision tbf

RIP Worzel

I'm sure Harold Shipman enjoyed his job but it was best for the rest of us when he stopped

— elliot (@wlleiotl) October 18, 2019

xps to Tom D - What am I missing here? Johnson is trying to pass this deal on the numbers May got in 2017. There is no DUP. Tories have been lost to other parties. And Johnson has removed the whip from another 20. Can't be totally relied on but not all of them are leave Tories.

The ERG are on-board, mostly. The Tories that have been lost seem like they will mostly vote for Brexit, as they have in the past — especially if they want to find some route back into the party.

I'm not sure it will pass but I can see it being very tight. A huge amount depends on Lab.

even if they aren't expelled - and ffs why not? - i don't think handing Boris Johnson a victory and potentially a victory General Election is going to do much for their prospective future Labour careers

(xp) The ERG voted against May's deal and I reckon they will all vote for this deal.

This sets it out, I agree there's a fair bit of speculation involved but I don't see, given the numbers, where any great confidence in the deal being voted down is coming from.

https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-the-pm-needs-320-votes-from-mps-for-his-deal-to-pass-is-that-likely-11838158

By voting for Brexit they keep Johnson in which means it's less likely they will get back in the party?

We all agree it will be close.