PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

no longer willing to say that any outcome whatever has a 0% chance in case tom d points and larfs but no single country in the EU is going to hardman 1:26 a refusal to extend (for the exact same reason hungary won't): it would fuck with their solo leverage in all other contexts

all bets off if a sizeable anti-extension faction were to form (but this isn't going to happen in secret, for the usual game-theoretical reasons: secret promises mean fuck all in diplomacy and no one will risk being out on a limb)

(sorry conversation moved on a bit while i was discussing amon duul ii's musical abilities on twitter, my priorities ARE in order yes fuck off)

Yeah the Junker stuff is being overblown imo

happy to talk about amon duul ii's musical abilities any time of the day or night

i love em but the conversation is never going to be long after all

Nigel Farage going full FPBE is the M. Night Shyamalan plot twist we all deserve https://t.co/wK9v9q28Hs

— Jonn Elledge (@JonnElledge) October 17, 2019

Farage staring obscurity in the face.

There goes the peerage!

as long as he can still rage abt us still being IN NOT OUT he has media leverage

when Fred hits the thread, happy to talk about the grumbleweeds album with a scratch n sniff dog shit on the cover

as long as he can still rage abt us still being IN NOT OUT he has media leverage

Keir Starmer has weighed in

Excuse the long thread, but I have looked carefully at the #BrexitDeal negotiated by Boris Johnson. Here is my analysis: 1/

— Keir Starmer (@Keir_Starmer) October 17, 2019

If the next tweet isn't "fucking shit" I'm not reading

lol Kate hoey opposes the deal

Already toeing her new Party's line

I bet she has been talking to her pal farage

Should start a "Has Kate Hoey joined the DUP yet?" Web page

i lolled at the "first!" in keir's menchies = an account* called @keir4leader saying "keir4leader now!"

*certainly NOT keir's alt

i lolled at the "first!" in keir's menchies = an account* called @keir4leader saying "keir4leader now!"

*certainly NOT keir's alt

(ps upshot of my amon duul tweets is chris dillow of stumbling and mumbling following me, in "everyone is as bad as everyone else" news)

I hope that's not a reference to the musical abilities of Amon Duul II >:(

in terms of musical ability, ADII were not as "bad" as ADI (this was being a point of in-commune contention, occasioning a split *and* a boycott)

hence opinions differ which the biggest sell-outs were

I really dug Wolf City at some point many years ago, they'll probably sound like hippies to me now.

they were indeed hippies

heh! just mean it is not really my shit these days.

we're going to end up with johnson presenting the may deal 2.0 to parliament aren't we?

― Seany's too Dyche to mention (jim in vancouver), Tuesday, October 15, 2019 4:44 PM (two days ago)

i was right about something for once.

next guess: it will pass

it will.

certainly feels that way to me :(

nah he doesn't have the numbers without Hoey and the DUP, still time for some heuristic heel turns, obv

doubt it

I hope you’re right!

there's got to be a crowd of labour ones who will be tempted with the proviso that the alternative could be no deal

cornynbs obviously doesn't have them disciplined well either so he won't be able to whip them effectively

whip has held up on deal votes so far

I expect there will be the odd Skinnock but hoping not many

I can understand ppl getting jittery but Johnson will need 20+ Lab MPs. The Tories that joined other parties won't back this deal either.

it’ll be close but i think you’re right. and i’m not convinced all tories will vote for it either.

But now that they have a deal to vote on, the quiet caveats continue. Ruth Smeeth has repeated the letter’s proviso on environmental policy and workers’ rights; Gloria de Piero, another signatory of the letter, said recently that: “at no point have I said I will back the Boris Johnson deal and the more details that emerge about it, the less likely I am to vote for it.” Everyone except retirign MPs will worry about losing the party whip, while balancing whether a failure to back a deal would result in losing their seat anyway.


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/10/will-pro-deal-labour-mps-back-boris-johnson

there's got to be a crowd of labour ones who will be tempted with the proviso that the alternative could be no deal

ah right i didn't realize the letter writers had reneged already

They haven't though.

Depends if some of them break cover and say they don’t support it - early signs not promising on that front

OTM. Not a peep from any of them today.

yeah, they’re keeping their options open. like xyz and nv i don’t think the numbers are there but it will be close.

Whether they would rather stick the boot in Boris or Corbyn is very much a moot point.

If Corbyn withdraws the whip they may not have much choice - but they may find other reasons not to support the deal. Important that Skinnock was arguing for the kind of thing discussed between Labour and the Tories which was more palatable to labour MPs in terms of workers rights but probably toxic to Tories.

I think Kinnock getting on tv to condemn Ellman's CLP doesn't really bode well

but then you'd hope he's one of the dimmest

Separate issue.

looooool, this is genius - varadkar essentially leveraging what the ERG failed to, in the knowledge that there is no way in hell that the UK is going to strike any substantive free trade deals post-Brexit that aren't just replicating deals it had as part of the EU https://t.co/ImqjBKXUiG

— tyron, the creator (@TyronWilson) October 17, 2019

I can understand ppl getting jittery but Johnson will need 20+ Lab MPs. The Tories that joined other parties won't back this deal either.

They only need 8 from figures I've seen.

And that is most certainly possible.

juncker talking out his arse and eu are amenable to another extension apparently