2020 Democratic presidential primary

good morning!

Scope and tonic with a twist of lime, please.

does anyone have any used rubbing alcohol containers?

has anyone done "(in the race) so long marianne" yet

anyway can we not use the term "pay-fors"

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/16/politics/elizabeth-warren-medicare-for-all/index.html

RE: all the welfare queen stuff up thread, did anyone read the "The Queen: The Forgotten Life Behind an American Myth"

i have not but i did listen to the Dollop episode about this. wild af.

btw at some point today we passed 12000 posts on this thread. I guess I’m proud of us.

what is the longest ilx thread? we should never switch to a new one. listen, naysayers, first of all use bookmarks (it's one of the three options under every post), secondly if your computer can handle 12K posts it can handle 25K, let's do this

DC has to be pretty long at this point

I’m with Karl, let’s be legends.

Well, it's still much too soon for "2020 Democratic presidential primary II: The Votening". So, I'm all for staying the course with this monster until the eve of the Iowa caucuses.

It kinda feels like there are only three viable candidates left. Maybe I’m wrong but that feels unusual for an out party four months or whatever before the voting even starts

buttigieg is still polling double digits in early (white) states. if biden collapses on stage, his voters might drift that way and then who knows

I could imagine once some of the random low polling candidates start dropping out, maybe one of the 2nd tier candidates will get enough of a boost to be viable.

So long as buttigieg still has money to spend, he has nothing to lose and everything to gain. He's a dark horse who began as a total nobody, but he could inherit Biden's don't-rock-the-boat constituency if Biden stumbles for whatever reason (as Biden is often known to do) and be a power at the convention. Even in losing, he is winning national name recognition and a national constituency to boost his career. He's not going to go away soon, and I predict the more support he wins, the more he'll turn to nasty attacks to chip away at those ahead of him. His donor base won't mind at all if he heaps dirt on Bernie and Warren. Even Biden, if Biden looks too weak.

This campaign has at least 9 months and every single primary and state caucus to go before the convention picks its nominee. That's an eternity.

Tom Steyer is already running TV ads.

Oh my god, he's been on youtube for a couple years with the commercials. Asshole

If the bulk of Tom Steyer's ads are just him saying billionaires like himself need to be taxed a hell of a lot more and it is more than fair to do so, then I don't mind if he blankets the media with them. I'd view them as PSAs.

this makes some sense (and is not good)

He's also got a much different base from Biden, though. College educated, youngish, and, so far, very white. To me, it's not clear whether Buttigieg is more of a problem for Biden or for Warren, whose base overlaps more with his. https://t.co/xQjp3ZNavy

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 16, 2019

The scenario where Buttigieg surges and wins Iowa, turning NH and NV into free-for-alls before a possible big win for Biden in SC, is one of the more plausible ways where Warren stumbles.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 16, 2019

nate bronze predicting it makes me feel more assured it won't happen

This campaign has at least 9 months to go

ffs

NBC took one of Bernie’s best quotes from the debate and attributed it to Warren. Totally shameless. pic.twitter.com/TN2xd05Bnq

— Samuel D. Finkelstein II (@CANCEL_SAM) October 17, 2019

NYMag did this too apparently?? can't decide if malice or incompetence

what is the longest ilx thread?

pitchfork is dumb has 15k+ posts

That one needs to remain longer than any politics thread if this site is to maintain any kind of coherent identity

idk Buttigieg as Warren's biggest threat in Iowa and possibly winning isn't out of the realm of possibility

looking at the polls right now, Pete is doing surprisingly well in Iowa right now. is his ground game there really that strong? he's way out of contention in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

I would say we shouldn't give Iowa so much power but South Carolina Dems seemingly can't wait to put Uncle Joe in the White House.

A chunk of them are black voters.

do we have to restate the obvious

I understand, historically, why black voters would favor Biden but that doesn’t make it a GOOD choice.

i don't know, if your main concern it defeating Trump and you believe Biden has a better chance of that than Bernie or Warren, then it's not a BAD choice

is

"I'm not making any predictions but I think they've got their eye on somebody who is currently in the Democratic primary and are grooming her to be the third-party candidate. She's the favorite of the Russians," Hillary Clinton to @davidplouffe https://t.co/DKH7BLTWs8

— Ken Thomas (@KThomasDC) October 18, 2019

dear Auntie Hil, stfu, thx bye

what is the longest ilx thread? we should never switch to a new one. listen, naysayers, first of all use bookmarks (it's one of the three options under every post), secondly if your computer can handle 12K posts it can handle 25K, let's do this

― It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Friday, October 18, 2019 1:45 AM (twelve hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

pitchfork is dumb has 15k+ posts

― Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Friday, October 18, 2019 12:41 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

why do i hate that artist thing that people keep posting on my facebook so much? why am i such a jerk? has 20K+. I think stet actually posted a list of the top threads a couple years back, but I can't find it at the moment.

It was keith, not stet. And more than a couple years back.

Is there a way to determine the longest threads on ilx?

If we'd kept all the LOST seasons in one thread like we did with GoT it would have been 26,000 posts long

I'm not sure why "Tulsi Gabbard sucks" is such a controversial stance.

it is not, you are good to go, podner

Gabbard sucks. I'm not sure why it's necessary to make unsupported claims that she has allegiance to a foreign government to make that claim though, and I'm also not sure what makes democrats think that any of the tiny slice of voters who would consider voting for her would take those claims seriously or give a shit.

I appreciate the Post including this though:

The “again” referred to Stein, whom some Clinton supporters have accused (rather baselessly) of serving as a spoiler for Clinton in 2016. Stein got around 1 percent of the vote in the three decisive states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — but exit polls showed most of her voters wouldn’t have supported either Clinton or Trump if Stein weren’t running.

But then I feel the same way about the whole "Putin's puppet" thing, which is by far the weakest, least credible, and least likely to influence voters of the many bad things you can say about Trump.

Even ex-armed services people I know hate Gabbard.

trump is the puppet of the last powerful person he talked to

these ppl who automatically assign protest votes to their losing candidate are... morons

there's a difference between hating gabbard and baseless conspiracy theorizing around her. though of course clinton has to justify to herself why she lost so...

you got less votes than obama in 2012 despite the size of the electorate having grown by 10 million in the interim. that damn jill stein!

Even ex-armed services people I know hate Gabbard.

Gabbard constantly references her military service, which is about the only asset she has going for her in this race, but that kind of throwing your service into everyone's face also gravels a lot of ex-military members, regardless of her policy positions.

you got less votes than obama in 2012 despite the size of the electorate having grown by 10 million in the interim

It's true, every individual vote was just a little bit smaller in 2016

XP Exactly. I've got a good friend who's ex-Marines (two tours in Iraq), and she has a good line about Gabbard needing a daily quota of people thanking her for her service.