PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

DUP source says “gaps remain and further work is required”

thread title contender obv, but i can’t help interpreting this as “we said £2B, the govt will only give us £1B”

As someone terrible pointed out yesterday, May was 10 points ahead in Wales in April 2017.

Better source for the Labour whip:

LOTO's calculation will be that if Labour MPs vote for a Brexit deal without repercussions, then the Lib Dems will run around the country saying Corbyn facilitated Brexit. So Labour MPs won't be allowed to keep the whip if they vote for it. So they won't vote for it.

— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) October 15, 2019

s someone terrible pointed out yesterday, May was 10 points ahead in Wales in April 2017.

True, but why are the Tories anywhere near this figure in Wales, is my point?

polls are bs

I guess what I'm really interested in is why those 14% BXP votes go, if Brexit happens? Also LOL PC demanded independence 'cos the Scottish are.

didn't realise that was the Welsh voting intentions YouGov poll i was looking at earlier, was gonna say they usually always put them at least 10 pts ahead and stats have shown they have a bias that stretches credibility.

Where not why.

xp - Well, no, in early 2017 YouGov (after changes to the way they measured the poll which maybe did weigh against Labour) had Labour at 44%. They haven't changed anything since then (afaik).

/s someone terrible pointed out yesterday, May was 10 points ahead in Wales in April 2017./

True, but why are the Tories anywhere near this figure in Wales, is my point?

Like we had people giving gloating quotes to journalists about how they were going to be the top party in Wales and take number of historical Labour seats and...what? Polls change when there’s an election and people have to take their vote seriously.

No and, of course, even 44% was off what Labour actually got in 2017 election. In fact the tories did better than that poll above. So, yeah, ok, polls are bs.

(I mean, no, it didn't matter last time!)

I'm on the ledge but you guys are doing a good job of talking me down.

xp - Well, no, in early 2017 YouGov (after changes to the way they measured the poll which maybe did weigh against Labour) had Labour at 44%. They haven't changed anything since then (afaik).

― Ned Trifle X,

Which month?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/01/05/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-26

January 2017 - 26%

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/03/10/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-25-8-9-ma

March 2017 - 25%

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-

April 2017 - 23%

could have been February? They've removed anything pre June from the index, so went direct via google and couldn't see Februarys

I'm on the ledge but you guys are doing a good job of talking me down.

*considers preparing jelly and ice cream*

Boris Johnson’s government is pessimistic about the chances of securing a #Brexit deal after his Northern Irish allies raised objections to the plans that have been drawn up in talks in Brussels, according to a British official, @TimRoss_1 reports. https://t.co/TWY3PGvbVt

— Nikos Chrysoloras (@nchrysoloras) October 16, 2019

anvil - yeah, sorry, not 'early' 2017 - my bad.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/22/voting-intention-wales-labour-44-conservatives

First line is rather telling!

While these shifts in public opinion could be seen as fairly erratic

Get away.

xp - Well, no, in early 2017 YouGov (after changes to the way they measured the poll which maybe did weigh against Labour) had Labour at 44%. They haven't changed anything since then (afaik).

― Ned Trifle X,

So the shift from 20+% polling to 40+% polling just after the election campaign started was actually more a reflection of the changes to the way YouGov measured their poll?

Apropos of nothing, former ILXoR Yancey Strickler is due on Sky News's All Out Politics at 10:45.

I wonder in basic terms what is *the way* a polling company founded by two tories and disproportionately has the tories ahead in more polls than any other pollsters since 2017, conducts their polling?

if strickler's still union-busting he's bad, if he says my book was the only good thing kickstarter ever funded he's correct (but still bad for union-busting)

beaten to the punch about kickstarter's unionbusting

not cool imo

I don't know, have you seen The Irishman? Bust these unions before they bust your head

union busting
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/business/2019/04/23/john-mcdonnell_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqxAHgvSpW8b5g6-J_2-NZhpa5G601S0VTN8nzablXFgY.JPG?imwidth=450

busting makes me feel bad

oh noes :(

Breaking: EU sees Brexit negotiations at impasse, as remaining issues can't be resolved at technical level. A new mandate from London is needed. UK government is trying to get DUP on board. More on @TheTerminal

— Nikos Chrysoloras (@nchrysoloras) October 16, 2019

who could possibly have foreseen this
https://www.rte.ie/centuryireland//images/uploads/article-images/Ed33-Connolly.jpg

So the shift from 20+% polling to 40+% polling just after the election campaign started was actually more a reflection of the changes to the way YouGov measured their poll?

― anvil

Nah, sorry, I've not been at all clear here. They made the changes way back in (ancient history) 2014 so these fluctuations are nothing to do with that (unless they changed something since then and didn't mention it).

Is that James Connolly?

even if he gets the DUP on board, giggity, doesn't he have a 20-30 vote minority?

The headbangers might fall in line with DUP support for the deal, though, as it removes one of their main “objections” and esp with threat of being fucked out of the party.

at least they are the brexit and unionist party for a few more billion

Is that James Connolly?

The most famous Hibee in history?

Or at least the only one shot by the British government... probably.

Dúnedin Connolly GAC, a Scottish GAA club takes its name from his.(citation needed)

Or at least the only one shot by the British government... probably.

Dunedin Connollys was founded in 1988 on Leith Walk, in the north of Edinburgh, at an Irish dancing show.[1] Father Eamonn Sweeney, the priest who had been instrumental in setting up Gaelic football clubs in the west of Scotland, had a chance meeting with Belfast native Anthony Haughey [2] and plans for an Edinburgh-based Gaelic team were formed.

None more Irish.

lol London GAA’s ground is in Boris’s constituency

The Labour vote in Leave areas collapses with grateful Leavers flocking to the Tories

This bit though is uneccesarrily panicky. Where is the evidence that Labour leave voters in Nothern areas would switch staright from Labour to Tory over Brexit? They might stay at home. And I can see a Brexit Party voter (who was previously a Labour voter) going Tory but not the above.

Also there aren't enough Remoaners flocking to Lib Dems that would hand lots of seats to the Lib Dems.

*claim to fame* I was on the front of the Irish Post in 1978/79ish with some Irish dancing fules.

https://img.maximummedia.ie/joe_ie/eyJkYXRhIjoie1widXJsXCI6XCJodHRwOlxcXC9cXFwvbWVkaWEtam9lLm1heGltdW1tZWRpYS5pZS5zMy5hbWF6b25hd3MuY29tXFxcL3dwLWNvbnRlbnRcXFwvdXBsb2Fkc1xcXC8yMDE4XFxcLzA5XFxcLzA2MTcxODQyXFxcL01pY2hhZWwtQ29sbGlucy1SRUEtc2NyZWVuc2hvdDEuanBnXCIsXCJ3aWR0aFwiOjc2NyxcImhlaWdodFwiOjQzMSxcImRlZmF1bHRcIjpcImh0dHBzOlxcXC9cXFwvd3d3LmpvZS5pZVxcXC9hc3NldHNcXFwvaW1hZ2VzXFxcL2pvZVxcXC9uby1pbWFnZS5wbmc_aWQ9MjY0YTJkYmUzNzBmMmM2NzVmY2RcIixcIm9wdGlvbnNcIjpbXX0iLCJoYXNoIjoiMDZiMTkxMmEwY2ZhNGNlYjIzMTlmMGUwNmFmMTU1NGIyYmMyMzEwMSJ9/michael-collins-rea-screenshot1.jpg

(I’ll stop posting Irish twitter memes now)

Also there aren't enough Remoaners flocking to Lib Dems that would hand lots of seats to the Lib Dems.

There might be in some middle class Remainiac areas and, anyway, it could still depress the Labour vote.

you could also argue a stronger than in '17 Libdems might be a better thing for Labour than the tories.

yeah a LOT of Tory voters will go Lib Dem this time around if my football forum experiences are reflective

lol London GAA’s ground is in Boris’s constituency

I spent a fine 1994 New Year's Eve in there

Read that as 1944 for a moment and was mad confused