slightly questionable source
Labour MP just told me that they have been warned, if they vote for a deal, regardless of how good it is for the country, they will not be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again.— Nadine Dorries (@NadineDorries) October 15, 2019
― be goose, do crimes (||||||||), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:15 (four years ago) link
The election is going to be about Boris Getting Brexit Done and nothing else, the media will make sure of that, if nothing else. The Lib Dems can present themselves as the party that bravely stood up for Remain while Labour dithered and procrastinated and Corbyn was a Brexiteer all along blah blah blah, hoovering up the Remainiac vote. The Labour vote in Leave areas collapses with grateful Leavers flocking to the Tories and disgusted Remainers boycotting Labour and voting Lib Dem. I'm not actually saying this will happen because I don't want to kill myself just yet.
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:16 (four years ago) link
grateful Leavers flocking to the Tories
I just don’t think “leave” is as strong a cultural identity as “never tory” in some of these places...
― be goose, do crimes (||||||||), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:16 (four years ago) link
(I am here for ronan burtenshaw Vs emma kennedy)
― be goose, do crimes (||||||||), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:20 (four years ago) link
You mean like when Scots used to brag we never vote Tory? And that all changed after what had happened? Oh that's right, a divisive referendum.
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:21 (four years ago) link
SAME, she’s so fucking awful
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:21 (four years ago) link
I'm extremely sceptical that the deal will pass Parliament but assuming it does then the campaign to rejoin will begin almost immediately. It'll be relatively small at first but the LibDems will cloak themselves in that flag which has the virtue of being more consistent and logical than their current position. They might do alright out of it tbh.
Meanwhile I still wouldn't expect it to translate to a thundering victory for the Tories, Johnson is widely disliked and Labour's domestic policy is likely to be popular. Obviously Corbyn is also widely unpopular but few people dislike them both equally.
I can see the prospect of a second Scottish referendum being weaponised against Labour without necessarily benefiting them in Scotland though.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:35 (four years ago) link
when the latest YouGov poll has got them 4 pts ahead that doesn't say tory landslide to me and I bet their internal polling is much grimmer. This is a far right bxp rump version of the conservative party, they don't have a broad enough appeal for a landslide, the One Nation posturing by Boris won't win back voters they've alienated. All imo of course. i think some people exaggerate the potential of the "he's done brexit" bounce when whatever possible deal he gets is guaranteed to piss off people on both sides in the short term, and as already said this will only be the start of further tedious negging in the long term.
― calzino, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:37 (four years ago) link
Can't see how Tories can net gain on their current seat total. I actually want to because I distrust this sense of relative optimism so.
― nashwan, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:46 (four years ago) link
“Billions” to bribe the DUP this time, says FT
― stet, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:49 (four years ago) link
you've got to give it to them, DUP are nuff gangsta!
― calzino, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:53 (four years ago) link
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:35 (sixteen minutes ago) link
While this is no doubt true, a side effect of Brexit has been the fact that actually English voters dgaf about that anyway (or at least nowhere near as much as portrayed). There's a lot of old assumptions about the electorate (and other electorates) that have been blown up
― anvil, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 07:56 (four years ago) link
If a deal passes will "Labour leavers" really vote for the Tories? Maybe, the Welsh seem to be heading down that path?
Welsh Westminster voting intention:CON: 29% (+5)LAB: 25% (+3)LDEM: 16% (-)BREX: 14% (-4)PC: 12% (-3)via @YouGov, 10 - 14 OctChgs. w/ Jul— Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 15, 2019
Fucking mystifying.
― Ned Trifle X, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:03 (four years ago) link
DUP source says “gaps remain and further work is required”thread title contender obv, but i can’t help interpreting this as “we said £2B, the govt will only give us £1B”
― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:04 (four years ago) link
As someone terrible pointed out yesterday, May was 10 points ahead in Wales in April 2017.Better source for the Labour whip:
LOTO's calculation will be that if Labour MPs vote for a Brexit deal without repercussions, then the Lib Dems will run around the country saying Corbyn facilitated Brexit. So Labour MPs won't be allowed to keep the whip if they vote for it. So they won't vote for it.— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) October 15, 2019
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:04 (four years ago) link
s someone terrible pointed out yesterday, May was 10 points ahead in Wales in April 2017.
True, but why are the Tories anywhere near this figure in Wales, is my point?
― Ned Trifle X, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:10 (four years ago) link
polls are bs
― conrad, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:11 (four years ago) link
I guess what I'm really interested in is why those 14% BXP votes go, if Brexit happens? Also LOL PC demanded independence 'cos the Scottish are.
― Ned Trifle X, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:12 (four years ago) link
didn't realise that was the Welsh voting intentions YouGov poll i was looking at earlier, was gonna say they usually always put them at least 10 pts ahead and stats have shown they have a bias that stretches credibility.
― calzino, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:12 (four years ago) link
Where not why.
xp - Well, no, in early 2017 YouGov (after changes to the way they measured the poll which maybe did weigh against Labour) had Labour at 44%. They haven't changed anything since then (afaik).
― Ned Trifle X, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:23 (four years ago) link
/s someone terrible pointed out yesterday, May was 10 points ahead in Wales in April 2017./True, but why are the Tories anywhere near this figure in Wales, is my point?
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:23 (four years ago) link
Like we had people giving gloating quotes to journalists about how they were going to be the top party in Wales and take number of historical Labour seats and...what? Polls change when there’s an election and people have to take their vote seriously.
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:25 (four years ago) link
No and, of course, even 44% was off what Labour actually got in 2017 election. In fact the tories did better than that poll above. So, yeah, ok, polls are bs.
― Ned Trifle X, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:27 (four years ago) link
(I mean, no, it didn't matter last time!)
I'm on the ledge but you guys are doing a good job of talking me down.
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:33 (four years ago) link
― Ned Trifle X,
Which month?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/01/05/voting-intention-conservatives-39-labour-26
January 2017 - 26%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/03/10/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-25-8-9-ma
March 2017 - 25%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-
April 2017 - 23%
could have been February? They've removed anything pre June from the index, so went direct via google and couldn't see Februarys
― anvil, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:37 (four years ago) link
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:40 (four years ago) link
*considers preparing jelly and ice cream*
Boris Johnson’s government is pessimistic about the chances of securing a #Brexit deal after his Northern Irish allies raised objections to the plans that have been drawn up in talks in Brussels, according to a British official, @TimRoss_1 reports. https://t.co/TWY3PGvbVt— Nikos Chrysoloras (@nchrysoloras) October 16, 2019
― expedited frictionless convergences (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:41 (four years ago) link
anvil - yeah, sorry, not 'early' 2017 - my bad.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/22/voting-intention-wales-labour-44-conservatives
― Ned Trifle X, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:45 (four years ago) link
First line is rather telling!
While these shifts in public opinion could be seen as fairly erratic
― Ned Trifle X, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:46 (four years ago) link
Get away.
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:57 (four years ago) link
So the shift from 20+% polling to 40+% polling just after the election campaign started was actually more a reflection of the changes to the way YouGov measured their poll?
― anvil, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 08:57 (four years ago) link
Apropos of nothing, former ILXoR Yancey Strickler is due on Sky News's All Out Politics at 10:45.
― Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:07 (four years ago) link
I wonder in basic terms what is *the way* a polling company founded by two tories and disproportionately has the tories ahead in more polls than any other pollsters since 2017, conducts their polling?
― calzino, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:12 (four years ago) link
if strickler's still union-busting he's bad, if he says my book was the only good thing kickstarter ever funded he's correct (but still bad for union-busting)
― mark s, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:12 (four years ago) link
beaten to the punch about kickstarter's unionbusting
― expedited frictionless convergences (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:13 (four years ago) link
not cool imo
I don't know, have you seen The Irishman? Bust these unions before they bust your head
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:16 (four years ago) link
union bustinghttps://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/business/2019/04/23/john-mcdonnell_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqxAHgvSpW8b5g6-J_2-NZhpa5G601S0VTN8nzablXFgY.JPG?imwidth=450
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:19 (four years ago) link
busting makes me feel bad
― expedited frictionless convergences (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:24 (four years ago) link
oh noes :(
Breaking: EU sees Brexit negotiations at impasse, as remaining issues can't be resolved at technical level. A new mandate from London is needed. UK government is trying to get DUP on board. More on @TheTerminal— Nikos Chrysoloras (@nchrysoloras) October 16, 2019
― expedited frictionless convergences (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:29 (four years ago) link
who could possibly have foreseen thishttps://www.rte.ie/centuryireland//images/uploads/article-images/Ed33-Connolly.jpg
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:31 (four years ago) link
― anvil
Nah, sorry, I've not been at all clear here. They made the changes way back in (ancient history) 2014 so these fluctuations are nothing to do with that (unless they changed something since then and didn't mention it).
― Ned Trifle X, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:33 (four years ago) link
Is that James Connolly?
― the pinefox, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:38 (four years ago) link
even if he gets the DUP on board, giggity, doesn't he have a 20-30 vote minority?
― Xia Nu del Vague (Noodle Vague), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:39 (four years ago) link
The headbangers might fall in line with DUP support for the deal, though, as it removes one of their main “objections” and esp with threat of being fucked out of the party.
― gyac, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:41 (four years ago) link
at least they are the brexit and unionist party for a few more billion
― calzino, Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:41 (four years ago) link
The most famous Hibee in history?
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:46 (four years ago) link
Or at least the only one shot by the British government... probably.
― Michael Oliver of Penge Wins £5 (Tom D.), Wednesday, 16 October 2019 09:47 (four years ago) link