2020 Democratic presidential primary

I feel like that explanation collides with Occam's Razor...

younger ppl are more open to risky/wide variance choices bc they're more flexible - as you get older you become more risk averse. i think this goes to some of the differences in style & temperament between warren + bernie vis-a-vis revolution vs reform

even tho i think essentially they're promoting the same agenda (and face similar prospects for what can get done in office) bernie frames his critiques as being more radical than they are, and bc of her temperament i think warren's critiques come off as less radical than they are. speaking as someone in the 35-49 demo with a family + a mortgage i see huge issues in our political system and country and believe they need dramatic overhaul but i still desire continuity + stability of some sort so warren seems like a better choice. if i were younger i could imagine being more enthusiastic about bernie.

face similar prospects for what can get done in office

This is definitely the thing that gives most pause for thought. The ability to actually deliver is an obvious issue. Makes foreign policy more important as its the area where they would have most ability to do that. Bernie has improved on this since 2016 but its still not exactly a strong point for either

younger ppl are more open to risky/wide variance choices bc they're more flexible...

Makes foreign policy more important as its the area where they would have most ability to do that.

unlikely tho that either's fp platform will differ significantly enough that anyone would feel the results domestically

part of my pref for warren is confidence in her ability to execute and rally allies more broadly bur still without concessions. and her vigor, even before bernie got all stenty.

part of ongoing evals is how would effectively would bernie face down what obama got from gop in resistance? warren? biden?

i dont believe biden would overcome it all based on his shit.

Scoop: @ewarren has been in contact with @AndrewGillum in recent months, according to multiple sources familiar, who said the talks resemble the kind of courtship that happens when a leading presidential candidate is exploring potential VP contenders. https://t.co/UubzV3FDSm

— Hanna Trudo (@HCTrudo) October 10, 2019

That would be marvelous if Gillum had won.

Also, Gillum did have ethics problems after all.

"Contact" I can easily believe. "Courtship" seems like an extravagant bit of rhetoric.

US labour rights extremely good

THREAD

We keep hearing about the risk to workers' rights and deregulation from a no-deal Brexit and a Trump trade deal.

But what does this really mean?

Here's a short thread that compares the United States and the UK.

(1/6)

— Tom Kibasi (@TomKibasi) October 10, 2019

what are the democratic candidates' stances on each of these

usual "there is no national primary" caveats apply but...

the most 🔥🔥 thing about this is you know Trump is going to have to see it on his next Fox News binge

(& promptly embark on yet another twitter rant) pic.twitter.com/FLekJpUtUe

— Taniel (@Taniel) October 10, 2019

With the Fox poll calculated in RCP, the gaps between the top three Dems and Trump have gotten pretty similar.

Biden +6.9
Sanders +5.3
Warren +5.2

In other words the “safe bet” candidate is now doing, uh, less than 2 points better than the “too left wing to win” candidates.

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) October 10, 2019

if you’re not watching this LGBTQ town hall, wow are you missing something strange. Biden just joked that he was about to come out as gay, then said the public discourse about gays used to be “all about round the clock sex”

— Christina Cauterucci (@c_cauterucci) October 11, 2019

those were the days my friend

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOBwqlP-3ls

TS: "Shoeless" Joe Jackson vs. "Clueless" Joe Biden

One of them belongs in the hall of fame

Warren delivered a quality laff line re marriage

lol I had no idea this was even happening. If CNN were a device in my house, it'd be swathed in cobwebs and pizza boxes.

Then it might interest you to learn that CNN is a leader in nude Jake Gyllenhaal content.

https://66.media.tumblr.com/29ab81ac85ff370644b93bcdef82ed95/tumblr_olrywt7aRH1tvav1do6_r1_400.gif

IRL giant LOL @Morbs

oh god no

https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/465442-warren-says-shed-welcome-a-dwayne-johnson-presidential-bid-who

this is how we got fucking Trump

tbf the President Rock timeline is a lot chiller

sure let's help the GOP rehabilitate their image, cool

exactly

"let's try a totally inexperienced famous clown that's NOT a huge racist!"

Oh snaps
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/465521-kamala-harris-to-trump-jr-you-wouldnt-know-a-joke-if-one-raised-you

I can smell the smoke from here.

Harris and her team have tested this line for months like screenwriters for a Schwarzenegger action film in the nineties.

pg&e should do a power shutdown at don jr's house before that burn gets out of control.

harris sucks

For most of America’s history, when our companies did better, our workers did better – and America built a thriving middle class. The Accountable Capitalism Act will help realign our skewed market incentives so companies & workers can once again do well together.

— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) October 11, 2019

this is just completely untrue unless somehow 35 years in the middle of the 20th century is "most of American history"

Real wages for laborers/industrial workers on average did climb with productivity, though most of the growth was constrained to brief periods like 1836-44, or 1950-1973.

The ones that were paid wages.

I think fear of single payer/M4A explains these results

― Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Thursday, October 10, 2019 9:51 AM (four days ago) bookmarkflaglink

When they support Warren?

― Frederik B, Thursday, October 10, 2019 9:57 AM (four days ago) bookmarkflaglink

they don't believe her

― Muswell Hillbilly Elegy (President Keyes), Thursday, October 10, 2019 10:00 AM (four days ago) bookmarkflaglink

I feel like that explanation collides with Occam's Razor...

― Frederik B, Thursday, October 10, 2019 10:03 AM (four days ago) bookmarkflaglink

Harry Reid tells David Axelrod that he doesn’t think Elizabeth Warren will follow through on ‘Medicare for All.’

“Give her some time, I think that she’s not in love with that, I think that she, you’ll wait and see how that all turns out... oh I know she’s pragmatic, just wait”

Mayor Pete on Elizabeth Warren’s small donor strategy: “We're not going to beat Trump with pocket change”

he is so bad at this

He has to try to justify his fundraising from big donors somehow, even if the best he can do is that bullshit. He might as well say, “We're not going to beat Trump with just a bunch of little people casting their votes.”

Warren is only excluding large donors through primary season. Her campaign has come into some criticism for not excluding PAC money etc in the general.

Mayor Pete is perhaps bitter that he's in a similar trap as Biden, most of his funds have come from donors who've maxed out their $2,800 campaign contribution limit.

I'm sure I'll be able to scrape up another $50 for Warren..

We're not going to beat Trump with pocket change, but we are going to beat Pete

how is he so bad at this

he's getting paid to be bad at this

is Warren being paid to utterly misrepresent the history of US wages under capitalism?

Mayor Pete on Elizabeth Warren’s small donor strategy: “We're not going to beat Trump with pocket change”
he is so bad at this

― Simon H., Monday, October 14, 2019 12:47 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

Lol, you could literally squeeze his entire donor base into the Waldorf Astoria ballroom. And he probably has a few times already.

fwiw his small/big donor ratio is 50/50ish, which is basically equal to or better than all candidates except sanders (3rd most small donors), castro and yang (most small donors).

granted there are ways of cooking those numbers (e.g. one big donor can donate $100 27 times).

Looks like Bernie is finally saying it out loud:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bernie-sanders-draws-contrast-elizabeth-warren-capitalist-bones/story?id=66217140