US Politics, October 2019 — I guess statement you could say with thread. I made a thread. The thread was PERFECT.

I don't see how impeaching the President, causing him to erupt in wild spasms of insanely guilty-looking behavior every single day since it started and likely long after it ends, could possibly have any impact on voters' thinking going into the 2020 election.

I even feel like some of the Democrats don't realize the degree to which the investigation of Donald Trump is a necessary and inevitable part of the 2020 campaign. There's no doubt (IMO) that BENGHAZI BENGHAZI BENGHAZI hurt Clinton and that was bullshit. If anything I wish I felt like more Democrats grasped that impeachment is a case that needs to be made, not just facts that will speak for themselves.(Maybe more of them do grasp that. I wish I felt that.)

If you think this is somehow making him more popular, or is causing people to be less excited about voting against him (which, make no mistake, is going to be a vast swath of the electorate's motivation when they enter the booth next November), you should slide your resume under the door at Fox News; they'd love to have you.

― shared unit of analysis (unperson), Tuesday, October 8, 2019 11:48 AM (twenty minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I don't know how you got ANY of that from what I wrote but I think it's touching that you have sufficient faith in mainstream media that come November 2020 they won't have already chased after 9,000 newer shinier things, very much including whatever smears the right-wing apparatus cooks up on Trump's opponent.

predicting anything in this day and age is a fool's game

take this whole Ukraine thing - total unforced error on the part of Trump, no one would have guessed this was going to happen a couple of months ago.

I'm really not trying to be a fatalist and honestly I do think there's a better than 50/50 chance that Trump loses in 2020, I just think there's a depressingly good chance that when people actually go out to vote in 2020, the general middle of the road consensus on impeachment is going to be that it was a partisan fishing expedition.

never a bad time for this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDoncJckows

I wish it was 50/50, but red state governments have been in overdrive with voter purges and other forms of voter suppression. The amount of corporate anti-Warren or anti-Sanders advertising will be enormous. And Russian military strategy is to always reinforce success, and presumably this will apply to active measures on social media and electoral hacking.

the general middle of the road consensus on impeachment is going to be that it was a partisan fishing expedition.

if anything "Democratic overreach" will be the cautious, Brooksian take. but even if that's true, it doesn't necessarily mean that it won't still hurt the GOP electorially. Cf. BENGHAZI!!! Which is why I'm definitely on Team Who the Fuck Knows? when it comes to making any predictions about any of this ...

And Russian military strategy is to always reinforce success, and presumably this will apply to active measures on social media and electoral hacking.

four days ago Facebook announced an official policy that you can lie in election ads

People like brotherslovedub want reassuring hugs more than message boards.
― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, October 8, 2019 11:14 AM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

I think most of us from time to time indulge in this here, with good reason. Nothing wrong with an ilxor e-hug.

I also think the occasional experssion of defeatism is totally understandable, if only as a psych device for preempting greater disappointment. So long as it doesn't mean giving up the real-world fight.

My own indignation gets a between-rounds breather from wondering if maybe we aren't all fucked. Doesn't mean I won't be in the streets when shit goes down

i think defeatism is fine for ilx, and any other nominally neutral communication zone that isn't a political organization. sure, if everyone adopts defeatism, we're totally fucked (we may be totally fucked anyway!). but that doesn't mean that everyone here should be forced to either say positive/nondefeatist things. we're not a political organization, we're a messageboard. and irl many people DO feel completely defeated and/or have reason to believe they will be defeated. sometimes retreating away from the real world fight is an important coping mechanism. i don't blame anyone for doing it.

the lost causes, Mr Smith

(that doesn't mean that near-constant defeatism is not annoying to some people, of course, nor that the annoyed people shouldn't be allowed to express the "defeatism is unproductive (for me to witness!)" viewpoint)

The president acts like a lunatic every day, right in front of people, and his approval ratings are in line with historical norms.

Trump's only scheduled activity for today: presenting the Presidential Medal Of Freedom to Ed Meese.

lol

Trump's only scheduled activity for today: presenting the Presidential Medal Of Freedom to Ed Meese.

― now let's play big lunch take little lunch (sic), Tuesday, October 8, 2019

which would've happened under President Jeb! or Rubio.

omg Ed Meese is still alive???

he thought it was ed grimley; when he discovers the truth, we're going to nuke monaco

his approval ratings are in line with historical norms

This is simply not true. Yes, previous presidents have had, at some point in their term, approval ratings in the low 40s. Some have even dipped below that. But they have all also gotten well above the 60% mark. On inauguration day, Obama had a 68% approval rating. On inauguration day, Trump had a 44% approval rating.

He is historically unpopular. He is, in fact, widely hated. That you persist in thinking otherwise may reflect a deep self-loathing, I don't want to speculate, but it's an empirically unsupportable position. He gamed the system to win. Period. If the Democratic candidate prevents him from gaming the system the exact same way a second time, he will lose.

howbout James Buchanan

unperson otm (in this instance)

The issue with the defeatism itt is that several times, people have called out that the constant, contextless negativity and bleak outlook was triggering to their anxiety and caused them to disengage.

And folks with higher stakes than some of us have also taken time to decry the occasional hyperbolic despair ITT.

So I get we all feel it, but I read this thread for recent news as I find it impossible to keep up, so it's helpful to get the greatest hits here .

I also enjoy everybody's takes on what a development might mean, even if it's not a positive development.

But the kneejerk driveby nihilism can be a put off.

Someone venting their personal anguish is one thing. Constant drivebys of "the world is fucked and we are all gonna die" are aggravating.

Xxxxxxposts

His inauguration numbers were low bc he ran the most scabrous and contemptible campaign ever. He should jave gotten less popular from there but he hasn’t.

I think I'm Big Meese
Herbert Hoover

xp

But point taken. I’m not alone in my dislike of Trump. He is beatable in 2020.

But the kneejerk driveby nihilism can be a put off.

Someone venting their personal anguish is one thing. Constant drivebys of "the world is fucked and we are all gonna die" are aggravating.

yeah I totally agree w this. Large chunks of these threads consist of this, and it's both frustrating and unhelpful and really I just skip huge swathes of them to get to whatever the next actual news/relevant analysis is.

Trump is banking on the fact that he’ll win the close-call states he took in 2016 while running against a candidate who (it doesn’t matter which candidate) will be more popular than the one he ran against in 2016, both due to any of the possible nominees being simply more well-liked than HRC and also Trump’s incoherent presidency coming into play.

That you persist in thinking otherwise may reflect a deep self-loathing, I don't want to speculate

lolol love when ppl go all armchair psychology on datazz

The issue with the defeatism itt is that several times, people have called out that the constant, contextless negativity and bleak outlook was triggering to their anxiety and caused them to disengage.

And folks with higher stakes than some of us have also taken time to decry the occasional hyperbolic despair ITT.

I've been playing shrink and terror on this thread since November 2016. I don't see myself relinquishing this role despite the croaking of despair from some of y'all.

I wonder if those of you who moan the loudest live in red states, therefore have more reason to. I'm surrounded by venomous Cubans and it makes me wanna win, not cry.

We've needed you!

Xpost

which would've happened under President Jeb! or Rubio.

I feel like either one of them might have scheduled at least one other meeting, or reading a briefing packet, into an eight hour day.

I live in one of the bluest of blue states, but my friends from Arizona told me last night that as worried as they were moving there it's nowhere near the red wasteland they expected. In fact, they were pretty adamant that Arizona was purple, which ... I guess, if you're feeling generous. Let's see how 2020 goes.

Defeating the caliphate singlehandedly is exhausting

Xpost

oh there are parts of AZ that are a red wasteland. anywhere not by a city, not by a college, or not on a rez.

That's true of every state, though.

yeah exactly

I think Trump may be losing the moron vote in AZ tho. Saw a jeep the other day that had this scrawled on it: "SICK OF 45. TRUMP HAS NO DIGNITITY"

got to bag it up

Haha

I wish it was 50/50, but red state governments have been in overdrive with voter purges and other forms of voter suppression. The amount of corporate anti-Warren or anti-Sanders advertising will be enormous.

This will help them keep the Senate, but Trump has only his die hard fan base and he no longer gets the benefit of the doubt about how he will act as president. Unlike the last election, which was a referendum on maintaining the Obama status quo under a less-likeable politically-damaged candidate, this election will be a referendum on Trump's first term, no matter how hard the right wing machinery tries to make it about anything else. They'll sell 'fear of the Democrat' as hard as they possibly can, but the only eager buyers for that will be the 35% to 40% who consistently approve of Trump.

Mainly, the democrat has to look reasonably attractive and sane, and have a hell of a good GOTV organization. Unless Trump causes a reverse-coattails landslide, I doubt the Democrats will get the Senate, but they sure as hell need to try.

got to bag it up

irl inadvertent snort

Once you grasp that a sizeable portion of the country will absolutely HATE whatever Democrats get into office and consider all of their policy proposals as treason or a sure-fire catastrophe (even when they are retread Republican proposals), then the next step is realizing you need to play McConnell-style hardball, ram through whatever bills you can, and be willing to run on the results. There's no better alternative.

perhaps worth noting that McConnell has been unable to "ram through" literally *any* legislation. To do so he (or the Dems) would need to gut the filibuster.

(a measure I support fwiw)

I generally have a pretty sunny outlook. My most defeatist/pessimistic thought is that there may always be 30-49% of the electorate who hates the president's guts. It'll just be a different 30-49%. Perhaps that will become the new normal: a pendulum swinging back and forth forever.

Further, I wouldn't be too surprised if every time you have a House majority of the opposite party from the president you will see impeachment rumblings begin on inauguration day.

My more optimistic side does still kinda cling to the notion that a lot of the teahadis / MAGA chuds are pretty old and pretty white. While the electorate of the future will still be full of problematic mofos, those particular problematic mofos will gradually recede from the picture.

"SICK OF 45. TRUMP HAS NO DIGNITITY"

November thread title imo