The September 2019 US Politics Thread is great Great GREAT GR8

it was a joke that was also completely serious lol xp

Hypothesizing, but I wonder if the "failure" (by standards of public reaction) of the Mueller investigation was not that people thought "collusion" wasn't wrong, but that there wasn't an absolutely clear illustration of collusion on Trump's part, which of course was debatable but could have been clearer. But in this case, there is clear, explicit proof of collusion that you can't chalk up to anything but the worst assumptions of intent. Which smartly imo is the tack being taken by the Dems, stressing that this is easy to follow and much less muddy/ambiguous.

I think this is pretty much right - the Dems are clearly rattled by the "y'all wanted to impeach him since Day One!" line of argument and therefore might not want to bring 7 different articles at once, fearing the public will just look at it like "Orange Man Bad" or whatever. I think it'll backfire since he really has committed a dozen obviously impeachable offenses right in front of our very eyes, but that is the sort of political miscalculation that the Dems are famous for

DJP they should post that at all entries into the country

lol Brad

xpost Oh, that's right, almost forgot about bipartisanship.

Seriously, though. Dems impeach, goes to Senate. Senate can just ignore, which at the least lets the Dems off the hook (what, is the GOP going to run on lol we simply ignored the impeachment?), or Senate fails to convict (in which case lol this crooked dude that no one likes was impeached, and we saw all that shit, but think it was OK, and ignore the handful of GOP members who agree with the Dems, but vote for us!). I think the risk is all in the GOP camp. Per your post, Dems worrying about losing support over impeaching this asshole whose impeachment prospects more or less got them in the majority in 2018 is like hand-wringing over fictional swing voters.

Give Me Your Tired, Your Poor, Your Fucking Stupids

and lol comments sections are a pretty self-selecting pool. There was a good exchange in that Vulture Bill Burr interview:

Look online at anything you’ve ever done and it’s loaded with comments about how you much you tell it like it is.

Can I ask you a question? Do you comment on YouTube videos?

I don’t, no.

So why would you read that shit? You don’t have to get very far down before somebody drops the N-word or says Obama ruined the country. Half the people making comments are just trolling the other half. So to go on YouTube and read comments and think that you’re picking up on the pulse of anything…

It must be nice to be white and male and not have this shit ever seriously encroach upon your real life

Dems worrying about losing support over impeaching this asshole whose impeachment prospects more or less got them in the majority in 2018 is like hand-wringing over fictional swing voters.

I don't think the Dems are worried about much except the scenario of depressed Dem turnout + increased GOP turnout in the election

Bill Burr is married to a black woman fwiw

xp

Hypothesizing, but I wonder if the "failure" (by standards of public reaction) of the Mueller investigation was not that people thought "collusion" wasn't wrong, but that there wasn't an absolutely clear illustration of collusion on Trump's part, which of course was debatable but could have been clearer.

This is Pelosi's gamble now.

(full disclosure: I do not like Bill Burr)

xps

The problem I could imagine is that whatever happens in the Senate will be painted as total exoneration and proof that Trump was 100% innocent the whole time and plenty of people will buy it.

^^^

But the Senate will not exonerate or even try to exonerate. They don't need to. They just need to not vote or vote against. And then gamble voters like their decision.

https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/6QZC2JTTIAI6TEZRGC6FQNXURY.jpg

Bill Barr did look like a sober straight Elton in 1987.

that is the kind of narrative that drives Trump turnout - "if we don't get out and vote for him, they'll impeach him again!" or something

Trump will spin not being convicted as exoneration, come on now.

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Who the fuck cares what Trump thinks?

Like, he's telling Schiff to resign, because ... who the fuck cares.

JiC, I said whatever happens in the Senate, total exoneration will be the message.

i am voting yea on the new nomenclature for more than four coal miners being a "Denny's of coal miners"

also: barr looks like a vampire weekend member in that photo, damn did he ever age poorly

Trump's message will be total exoneration even if he is convicted in the senate.

That would be a bit harder to sell, bit is also an unlikely outcome

I accuse no one on this thread, but godfuckingdamn am I tired of being afraid of or thinking about Trump's base.

You mean his ass?

I accuse no one on this thread, but godfuckingdamn am I tired of being afraid of or thinking about Trump's base.

― TikTok to the (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, September 27, 2019 11:59 AM (thirty-five seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

otm

Trump is currently spinning being caught red-handed as total exoneration. Next week he'll spin shitting his pants in public as total exoneration. It's what the pure and the innocent do.

Total evacuation.

The problem I could imagine is that whatever happens in the Senate will be painted as total exoneration and proof that Trump was 100% innocent the whole time and plenty of people will buy it.

this is why you go all out and introduce 7 articles of impeachment at once. you could easily get a year's worth of hearings and investigations just out of the stuff we know right now. put it all front and center, over and over and over again. make it clear that any GOP senator who does not vote for removal is complicit in all of it. I know that the GOP will fight dirty and will contest every single thing but there is just so much to get this guy on. You cannot possibly overplay this hand. Trump is repeatedly referring to a borderline-treasonous phone call that his team tried to bury as "perfect" - who gives a shit what they say? This is arguing with a 5 year old who insists the moon is purple.

I don't think the total exoneration scenario would be limited to the base. There's a giant mass of low information voters out there that will buy it.

Also, I am in no way saying the Democrats should be cautious about this at all. I'm full steam ahead on impeachment.

this is why you go all out and introduce 7 articles of impeachment at once. you could easily get a year's worth of hearings and investigations just out of the stuff we know right now. put it all front and center, over and over and over again.

I don't agree. It's like I tell students: "If you only have one clear point, stick with it." Introduce more and you risk confusion.

Also, Pelosi hinted today that more articles may emerge.

I know y'all want him out in handcuffs, but it ain't happening. What I want: (a): Trump impeached because morally it's correct and scares the shit out of the satraps and sycophants of future presidents (b) Trump's stature reduced enough to depress turnout even slightly.

And apparently none of y'all have figured out that a president impeached by the House but exonerated by the Senate will energize turnout for Democrats.

Seriously. We wouldn't be here if it were not for 2018, that's what you run on.

The average person who isn't a straight white dude who comments on political threads all day and who doesn't watch MSNBC will be fucking pissed off that McConnell and the Senate refused to impeach. It's 2018 again.

And apparently none of y'all have figured out that a president impeached by the House but exonerated by the Senate will energize turnout for Democrats.

Some of us have.

Sex won't age me. Alcohol won't age me. Finishing A Little Life won't age me. Explaining things will.

And apparently none of y'all have figured out that a president impeached by the House but exonerated by the Senate will energize turnout for Democrats.

*raises hand*

um, Iiiiiii figured that out

Come sit by me.

Wait wait wait, McConnell isn't gonna do what now?!?!?

(rends Izod polo)

This is one of the only weeks of the Trump presidency where the news cycle isn't playing out on his terms... sounds like a good idea to wrap that up quickly and in secret https://t.co/sP8YHx7Fsz

— David Dayen (@ddayen) September 27, 2019

Isn't the notion of a 'failed' impeachment depressing dem turnout just a right-wing talking point which some left-wingers are unfortunately and uncritically adopting?

No one can predict how voters will react. The safe bet is to do the right thing.

I mean if nothing else, lookit: the Mueller probe resulting in nothing substantive did nothing but make the Blob feel vindicated enough to openly commit high crimes because he felt like he was untouchable. And now we're here. Can you imagine the stupid shit he'll pull when the senate refuses to give him the boot?

They should drag this out as long as possible, dredging up everything they possibly can. He will react by shrieking into twitter all day long, which apparently doesn’t hurt him with his voters, but it certainly doesn’t help.

My point being: even when impeachment goes nowhere, Trump will inevitably freebase undiluted hubris for the remainder of the time leading up to the election, constantly reminding everyone of what a tremendous turd he is, and the GOP will be inexorably linked to every one of his bullshit actions for having given him a pass to continue unhindered.

Maybe idk

This all could backfire. The democrats best play is trying to hold him accountable for as many of his crimes as possible. And then they can say, “we did everything we can but the republicans are protecting a corrupt administration”

a president impeached by the House but exonerated by the Senate will energize turnout for Democrats.

I agree w this for what it's worth. will also energize GOP turnout, is the problem.

Will it, though? If they view their Don as truly Teflonned, individual republicans may decide that their vote won't be necessary to secure his inevitable massive victory.

there are fewer of them

xp