The September 2019 US Politics Thread is great Great GREAT GR8

Whistleblower currently getting blitzed with anonymous OpEd writer.

Lol Granny

I too laughed @ Granny D

Anyways I am sure that the "transcript" will be generously covered with Sharpie.

And that the impartial individual to whom it is released will be John Barron from the Pmurt PR Agency.

happy infrastructure week

road to impeachment

The Strategic Case for Impeaching Donald Trump

What to do? Zero-sum game theory offers some useful advice.

In zero-sum games, one actor’s gain is always the other actor’s loss. The optimal strategy to pursue in this instance is called “minimax.” A minimax strategy anticipates that the other actor will adopt the most punishing strategy possible — and, in response to that strategy, takes the course of action that minimizes the damage.

What does this have to do with Trump and the Democrats in Congress? It is safe to assume that Trump will continue to abuse the powers of the presidency as long as he is in office. The Ukraine example shows that he is not above using presidential authority for partisan gain. Furthermore, when he is not doing those things, he is pursuing other policies that harm the U.S. economy and the national interest.

Would impeachment stop any of that? No, not directly. What it would do, however, is distract the heck out of him. To say that Trump can be easily distracted would be an understatement — his short attention span occupies a healthy portion of the #ToddlerinChief thread. Sharpiegate exemplified how Trump obsessed about a small thing so much that it became a more scandalous thing.

As Matthew Dallek noted recently in The Post, one of the reasons Trump is such a micromanager is because the weightier aspects of the job overwhelm him: “Where his predecessors sometimes knew so much that they got obsessed with the details, Trump knows so little that microscopic concerns seem almost to be ends in and of themselves.”

So why impeach Trump? Because he will obsess about it. The moment it becomes a live option, the moment a trial in the Senate seems conceivable, he will talk about nothing else. He will rant to his staff and bore foreign leaders about it. He loves a fight. And every moment Trump thinks about impeachment is a moment he is not thinking about doing even more reckless things, like trying to compromise the independence of the Fed, or launching a larger trade war, or stumbling into a real war.

Let me be very clear: I am suggesting that the House impeach Trump for two reasons: 1. He has committed high crimes and misdemeanors; and 2. Impeachment will distract Trump from further harming the national interest.

This is not a perfect strategy. It will sap the energy of the executive branch, something Alexander Hamilton would dislike. There are some small risks to Democrats in 2020, although an impeachment trial would also highlight Trump’s egregious abuses of power. It is possible that if impeachment happens and then the Senate fails to convict, Trump will feel emboldened.

Still, Trump is not going to stop doing what he is doing, unless he gets distracted by something else. In a zero-sum world, it is far better to have him obsess about his political survival rather than, say, nuking a hurricane. In the zero-sum political world that Trump has made, impeaching him is the best possible response strategy to his abuses of power.

If history is any guide, impeachment proceedings will suck every bit of oxygen out of Washington, DC for the foreseeable future. It will becalm all the democratic presidential candidates' campaigns, too, as it becomes 'the only issue that matters' and they all agree on it - unless maybe Klochubar sucks hind tit. Also, it will become the single issue upon which all 2020 campaigns for congress will pivot, too.

This seems unavoidable now.

they don't actually agree on it! biden apparently only supports impeachment if trump does not release the whistleblower complaint. everyone else (incl. pelosi) says that's beside the point.

although that is extrapolated from reporting of statements that haven't actually happened (see https://www.politico.com/news/2019/09/24/joe-biden-trump-impeachment-000013 and below). could easily imagine biden toughening his position given the momentum.

NEW — Pelosi is going to call for an impeachment inquiry this afternoon and, I’m told, she will likely NOT make it conditional on Trump refusing to produce the whistleblower report. https://t.co/b2C5XZ6uo7

— Sam Stein (@samstein) September 24, 2019

As Matthew Dallek noted recently in The Post,

Articles of impeachment must include the violations of the Emoluments Clauses, two critical anti-corruption clauses of the Constitution.

Trump keeps taking substantial money from the Saudi Government eg. That's impeachable.

— Zephyr Teachout (@ZephyrTeachout) September 24, 2019

remember when this dirtbag was gonna save us all?

#BREAKING: In local news interview, former FBI Director James Comey comes out against impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump, saying, "I think the American people would be let off the hook if Donald Trump were removed from office."

— Matthew Keys (@MatthewKeysLive) September 24, 2019

Lol

what a huge fuckin dumbass comey is and always was

his opponent got more votes you dumb idiot

"Let off the hook?" What is that supposed to mean? Like we all deserve 4 years of Trump or something?

"do whatever crimes want for at least four years" is not being let off the hook imo

that guy is so fucking embarrassing it actually causes me physical pain

lames comey

You don’t want to get impeached when so many of your party’s representatives have already announced their retirement in 2020. Will Hurd seems likely to vote for impeachment for example.

this is a good point, but unfortunately impeachment articles passing the House is not the issue. The only GOP Senator I can imagine currently voting for impeachment is actually Romney which is sad lol

i'm not saying he's going to be removed from office, but the size of the vote is not irrelevant. it sends a message.

GOP reps being forced to vote for trump also seems like it could increase the rate of retirements which is good electorally (not that the house seems in much danger in 2020 right now)

*size of the vote in the house is not irrelevant.

Jake Sherman on MSNBC getting leaks from the Dem Caucus meeting: "It doesn't matter how many Dems still have to vote for it; if Nancy Pelosi supports impeachment, they'll all fall in line."

bind every republican to trump, make them defend him. salt the earth

another luminary!

Tulsi Gabbard on an impeachment inquiry: "I think that impeachment would be terribly divisive for our already very divided country" pic.twitter.com/XQMf45ldQK

— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) September 24, 2019

road to impeachment

We'll take that ride

https://img.discogs.com/vEwdE-lKsaVf98Ppke-m6i5MkqI=/fit-in/300x300/filters:strip_icc():format(jpeg):mode_rgb():quality(40)/discogs-images/R-1777835-1416164588-6407.jpeg.jpg

Tulsi Gabbard on an impeachment inquiry: "I think that impeachment would be terribly divisive for our already very divided country"

better to just let a political party whose entire operating goal is "triggering the libs" free reign to break whatever laws they please

well, well:

The Senate voted via unanimous consent on Tuesday on a resolution calling for the Trump administration to release to the Senate Intelligence Committee a whistleblower complaint that allegedly involves President Trump and Ukraine.

Why it matters: The resolution is non-binding, but it's a rare show of bipartisanship on an issue that threatens to spark an official impeachment proceeding in the House. The House will vote on a similar resolution on Wednesday.

about to post that, it's significant

its non-binding, can't Trump just go "LOL, no" like he always does

...i.e., The GOP already has their damage control/deflection angle in place.

The president has returned to Trump Tower "for what is described as executive time," according to pool report.

— Chris Megerian (@ChrisMegerian) September 24, 2019

diaper change

he thinks he's being bugged

anyway the fact that the GOP is cool with this means they're expecting to be fully in control of the media narrative and will point to some suggestive phrasing like "it would be a real shame if anything happened to the military assistance we're providing" as a total and complete exoneration, exactly the same as they did with the Barr letter

Pelosi speaking.

Seeing strong indications she's angling for an impeachment vote, but no public hearings.

so ... what *is* an impeachment inquiry?

lmao

Such an important day at the United Nations, so much work and so much success, and the Democrats purposely had to ruin and demean it with more breaking news Witch Hunt garbage. So bad for our Country!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 24, 2019

I saw Kevin Kruse tweeting it, but I'm not getting that sense. There's a lot we don't know.

So, to recap:

-Pelosi has backed an impeachment INQUIRY
-Unclear If they’ll vote on opening an impeachment inquiry on the floor
-Unclear If they’ll vote on impeachment
-Unclear If Pelosi supports impeachment

A lot of smoke at this point, very little fire.

— Matt Fuller (@MEPFuller) September 24, 2019

interesting that Trump is releasing transcript - either he's so stupid he doesn't realize it has damning material in it (entirely possible), or he was sly enough to be obfuscatory and incomprehensible enough on the call to provide plausible deniability.

the transcript may not contain anything more damning than what we already know. they've already admitted asking Ukraine to "investigate" the biden situation, and that say there's nothing wrong with that because it was all in the patriotic name of fighting corruption anywhere it may be found. as for the obvious quid pro quo with the military funding that they were holding up, it's unlikely that trump said on the phone call "if you don't give us dirt on biden, we won't give you the money". it's much more likely that it was the elephant in the room and he didn't even have to say it. it's the standard trump/cohen/mob way of doing business - asking for the thing you want without saying it out loud, in a way that's understood by the person you're demanding it from.

it's not a transcript. it's a summary/readout. and it's apparently one of several conversations/actions that lead to the complaint. so it probably contains nothing. although i guess it might also be like that time jr released his emails and they were like "are you willing to crime? great, i crime too, let me help you crime".

lol

PRESIDENTIAL HARASSMENT!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 24, 2019

"Presidential harassment" alright

They're handing his harass to him.

Grab 'em by the phone call!

Binders full of harassment

i still don't understand what their argument is going to be for not handing over the whistleblower complaint to congress, as they are legally required to do. "we did absolutely nothing wrong...and we will do everything we can to stop from finding out what they said we did wrong!"