PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

Yeah, this isn't even close to what I was saying...

― Le Bateau Ivre, Monday, 23 September 2019 23:04 (yesterday) link

This is all very silly, because what matters is what Ed wrote above. That is what matters, that is the fucking point. "The timidity and vacillation that is galling".

― Le Bateau Ivre, Monday, 23 September 2019 23:09 (yesterday) link

Well beyond you and Ed not liking Lab's Brexit policy you are not coming up with the same thing at all. You were agreeing with Lammy who was comparing Lab policy with Tory and Lib Dem policy, and was doing it badly, for point scoring.

If, through Lab's policy, we end up fully remaining in the EU then there will be FOM. If you vote Lib Dem we could end up leaving. That's the reality of Labour's 'vacillation'.

depressing because as we know from the US you can’t win a culture war. the right know this - the object is not to win but to perpetuate it forever and as people get more angry they might not notice all the other shit going wrong around them. labour’s position is the only one which recognises this and offers a route out here...

― stoffle (||||||||),

Brexit has always been a culture war (the idea that immigration or the EU itself are major factors behind leave have always been wrong, its mostly identity politics). I don't necessarily agree its a growing section of society on either side though, just the illusion or fig leaf of tangibility has gradually been put back on the shelf (hence the lack of interest in a deal)

Leave have never seemed that fussed about actually leaving, and Remain have never seemed that fussed about remaining, moving of goalposts to make sure goal is never quite achievable. Riding the grievance wave. The victory is nothing to do with the EU and never has been

Where I'd semi-disagree with that tweet, is while I agree large sections of society want to "win" against the other side, I don't think they want to bring it to an end at all, but to feel the continuing cut and thrust of battle. The public may say they are sick of it and just want it to end, but they are lying, because they are addicted

</adam curtis voice>

Labour has some fantastic policies, but it's all going to be swamped by brexit. And at the risk of being labelled a centre-right/FBPE/whatever concern troll, I can't for the life of me see how their brexit policy is going to be an electoral winner. For the vast majority of people who don't follow this stuff closely, they're just going to see that tories = pro=brexit, libdems = anti-brexit, labour = fudge/can't make their minds up. And of course that narrative will be hammered home by the media. Some remain/labour voters will peel off to the libdems, some leave/labour voters will stay at home or possibly vote brexit party. And absolutely no previously non-labour voters will be persuaded by this to vote labour. And Labour needs not only to hang on to the voters they have, but persuade quite a few more.

I got Vardz in to do it and that lad isn't cheap should have gone with Fabian Delph he was on offer

agree with wanting to "win" stuff - some politicians continue to tell their audience that "winning" is possible and to hold firm - and also the shallowness of the "i just want it to end/go away" stuff

"pick a side" is such trash

Labour has some fantastic policies, but it's all going to be swamped by brexit

This comes down to whether this is true on the ground as well as true in the media (I don't necessarily have a strong view either way on this). Basically whether the Peterborough by-election was indicative or an anomaly

Winning is never about the trophy you get to hold, its about the look on the travelling fans faces as they leave early. The trophy is meaningless without it

If anyone is motivated solely by Brexit then the choice between a party that is going full-pelt towards No Deal vs one who will offer a second referendum with Remain on the ballot should be fairly clear. Anyone hanging their FBPE hopes on the Lib Dems winning a majority is going to be disappointed.

I can’t imagine even Swinson thinks they’re going to win a majority so it’s a referendum either way.

clarity of brexit positions is no match for an effective ground game and deep campaigning roots, as we have already seen in peterborough (?)

(xp) Of course she doesn't, and neither does any Lib Dem MP or member or voter, unless they're clinically insane.

swinson is trying to put “clear yellow water”* between the LDs and LAB by making them “the paramilitary wing” of FBPE

*piss

Watching Ed Davey on QT fall apart, in about 10 seconds flat, trying to justify their policy makes me think they are going struggle over the course of an election campaign. Sorry, Sir Ed Davey *spit*

we all know we got into this mess because the tories wouldn’t face down the headbangers on their own side. don’t let us repeat the same mistake please

there must be lots of LibDems exasperated at Swinson's election tactics, but perhaps keeping quiet until she fucks it all up.

of the more senior Labour right arseholes peers, Margaret Beckett has become my favourite one just by not taking every opportunity to undermine the leadership despite attempted prompts by bbc correspondents. Today Tom Watson is going to preach about party unity in his conference speech, not really a strong part of his game.

They voted for her tactics en masse at their conference.

there's more than a whiff of "ideological purity" and refusal to engage with "the world as it is" about "full-throated remain"

Is "A Referendum On The Final Deal" really that complex a concept to put on a manifesto? Especially if you are someone whose literal job it is to make complex concepts understandable to the casual reader?

They need to find a direct and understandable way of communicating it to the general public but anyone who thinks this is too complex to be understood by the casual voter is basically saying they think the public are stupid.

Every Labour member will pick the side they want to in the end anyway regardless of party policy, and most of them will rightly back Remain.

xxp
must be nice to have conference votes are so clear minded and unanimous (and dumb as fuck and wrong!) and are not beholden to a "cult leadership" which was what Clive Lewis shitposting last night. Funny that he used to be seen as leadership potential, that ship has sailed.

I actually think Corbyn's original position, to negotiate a soft brexit with no new referendum, was probably the best one. Despite being strongly remain myself, I do think remain is basically dead. Any attempt to revoke article 50 will provoke a complete breakdown of the political system, it's just not a feasible option any more. A referendum with remain as an option just prolongs the agony. Leaving the EU but remaining in the customs union is probably the only real alternative to the horrors of no deal.

absolutely no previously non-labour voters will be persuaded by this to vote labour. And Labour needs not only to hang on to the voters they have, but persuade quite a few more.

Labour's policy isn't about trying to win over non-Labour Remainers - the likelihood is that those who are more concerned about Brexit than about economic democracy or decreasing the wealth gap or protecting the poorest and most vulnerable people in society are *never* likely to be committed Labour supporters. The policy is intended to reconcile conflicting views within Labour support and Labour Leave constituencies. It's also a good faith attempt to reconcile a narrowly divided electorate on a national level. It's arguable whether it's the best policy at any given moment, or whether it can be refined, or when it needs to change course, but it's a more nuanced and considered policy than any of the other main parties. This is its strength and, to true believers on both sides of the EU debate, its weakness.

The idea that wholeheartedly becoming the Remain party will improve Labour's chances in a general election is highly speculative *at best*. There are certainly swathes of Remainers who will never vote for a Leftish Labour party: because of their class interests, consciously or unconsciously; because they've committed themselves to the narrative of Corbyn as the enemy of the EU and can't back down from that position no matter what the evidence; because they are, at heart, liberals or softcore Tories. So the party's policy towards Remain becomes a matter of complex calculation based on the vagaries of the FPTP system. It's pointless to win over a bunch of Remainers in seats that Labour can't win. That's realpolitik. Their calculations may prove to be right or wrong but they are being made in good faith. The party and the country's fortunes will turn on this and once again it is more complicated than choosing the "just" cause, when half the country is unconvinced that the cause is just.

This matters because THE ONLY WAY that Brexit can be averted or ameliorated is a Labour-led government after the next election. The Lib Dems cannot become even the opposition, so a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote to strengthen Johnson's position except, maybe, in Tory/Lib Dem contested seats. Even there, given Swinson's antipathy to the Labour party and affinity to soft Toryism a vote for the LDs risks giving them the power to prop up a hard Brexit Tory government. Anybody for whom Remain is the over-riding concern who doesn't realise this, or realises it but can't bring themselves to vote Labour because of one of the aforementioned reasons, isn't worth reaching out to frankly.

Finally my best guess is the EU is not the main factor for a significant majority of the electorate, so to sacrifice the policies that do matter in the interests of an illusory crushing victory for Remain is, well, I wouldn't.

Otm

Booming NV post.

It's amazing/unsurprising how many of the people who say they don't understand how they might look patronising to the casual voter apparently also think that "A Referendum On The Final Deal" is too complicated a policy for the public to understand.

Yep, NV very much otm.

The position, in addition to not being complicated, respects that people did vote Leave. It’s not saying to those wavering working-class Leave voters, that are worried about what no deal means for them, “fuck you, you made your choice and we don’t want your vote”. It’s not saying “well 52% of you voted Leave but we don’t care about your votes and want to undo them ASAP”. It’s reflecting the reality - if another referendum is run, and Leave wins again (which it’s got a pretty good chance of doing!), then the country is leaving on a deal that does the least damage.

Did we discuss this exceptional self-own from Mike Gape's by the way?

screenshot just in case he deletes. this is.. this is beautiful. pic.twitter.com/GQcDkr67BB

— Jonathan Fisher (@fishplums) September 23, 2019

We did and he did delete! I see he’s joined Mainstream now and is going to stand at the next election.

we lolled last night, think i lolled without commenting.

THE FIGHT IS ON. GAPES VS. @GAPESOLOGY, POLITICAL SHOWDOWN OF THE CENTURY. pic.twitter.com/9FiwvW31HT

— Reel Politik podcast (@reel_politcast) September 17, 2019

what the hell is Mainstream? kinda hard to google

it's a party for... the mainstream (in no way affiliated to or the same as Change UK)

keir starmer did not look comfortable defending the private schools policy on NN last night - doesn’t bode well for the “corbynism but with a head boy as leader” set

More to the point if this exact same Brexit policy had come from, say, Yvette Cooper a lot of the same people who are currently criticising it would be queuing up to praise it as a masterpiece of canny political positioning.

Sadly they are not (I think?) this lot: https://www.mainstream.org.uk/

never trust a glassy brylcream boy with a title I say

oh i found them

a) didn't really think about googleability when they chose their name
b) their site seems to have time-travelled in from 2002

Who we're for:

We're for the political MAINSTREAM.
For FAMILIES. For people who want
Britain - and all of Europe - to be
more Family-friendly. Where the Human
Rights of victims are MORE IMPORTANT
than the Human 'Rights' of offenders.
Where our laws are MADE to work in
the way that PEOPLE want; not the
way the politicians and lawyers want.

Who we're NOT for:

Mainstream is NOT FOR SNOWFLAKES.
If you're a snowflake you must NOT
proceed further, your delicate
feelings might be offended.
We don't do Politically Correct

Why we're needed:

At every election, less and less of the
population are voting. Why?
Because they don't support ANY of the
established political parties.
Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson, with
nauseating arrogance, believe that their
'Three sizes fit all'. They can't
understand that things have changed.
The Establishment parties DON'T fit.
That's why Britain needs a NEW party,
with Policies for the PEOPLE - not
Policies for the Polticians.

no Andrew's right that must be a different Mainstream :D :D

so there's Mainstream, The New Mainstream, The Original Mainstream, Mainstream Mainstream, what?

Gapes grammar-police fail made me laugh like fuck, but awkwardly because I have butchered some possessive apostrophes in my time!

Looks like I missed out on last night's action. <3 LBI, deems & others.

Excellent post, NV, but I remain (heh) unswayed that the paraphrase I posted upthread ('We want to stay in the EU, so we'll organize a second referendum and officially back Remain, but if Leave wins again, we're going to carry out the will of the British people and negotiate the best possible withdrawal agreement') would result in more losses than gains for Labour. That would have been my preferred alternative, but it is too late now, the faithful have spoken. We'll see what happens next – just don't expect me to get my hopes up.

Anyway, moving on, a verdict awaits us at 10:30.

NV otm and also Conrad too (in a very good short post yesterday).

"Leaving the EU but remaining in the customs union is probably the only real alternative to the horrors of no deal."

Remain would likely win as I'd reckon a Lab deal would be seen as betrayal by leave voters.

i saw your paraphrase yesterday pom and i agree that it might be just as effective. i would prefer to see Labour take a more positive approach to Remain while adhering to the outline of the position they've got, but as to which approach would be more effective - well we're all speculating. it's the people who vehemently insist that their approach is the sure-fire vote winner that are wrong imo.

the EU is not the main factor for a significant majority of the electorate

disconnect w/ the media discourse on this point is v glaring, but a lot of ppl don't want it to be true so however many times it's stated it's ignored

it's awkward for the media because without brexit they have to start reporting on policies and that is where Labour have so many positives and put the Tories blatant short termist election bribes into sharp contrast

plus Brexit is just more fun for the media because it's so outwardly, viciously divisive

i'm sure we could have had some good fun with "abolish private education" tho

booming NV post earlier but when you put him in front of a bbc grilling he just doesnt have that passion for me clive

Great post but could he do it on a wet Thursday in Boston?

let's be honest the BBC don't want to see ill-kempt lunatics mumbling about nuance, they want

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3z-a5hy7QO8

oh you heard them talking to some pliable numpts in a northern marginal this morning? Lol someone says he's not voting for Corbyn because he's a communist, not voting for boris because "I'm not rich enough" - he's voting for the brexit party. I think this was recorded outside a foodbank as well - the bbc back to their bullshit.