2020 Democratic presidential primary

"Horse race" shit, but I didn't think this possible:

(CNN)A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll out Tuesday finds former Vice President Joe Biden leads the field in the first national polling after last week's Democratic presidential debate, but Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has risen to hold second place on her own.

The new polling comes after the debate brought to the fore a slew of new policy platforms for candidates to address, including gun policy and race relations, and continued the debate about the future of American health care.

The poll, fielded by phone from Sept. 13-16 and with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.36 percentage points for results among Democratic primary voters, showed Biden with 31% and Warren with 25%. The poll has Warren up 7 points since early July, the last time NBC and the Wall Street Journal released a poll, and is another survey showing Warren's support has grown in recent months.

Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont was at 14%, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 7% and Sen. Kamala Harris of California at 5%. Businessman Andrew Yang clocked in at 4%, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota at 2% and Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey at 2%. All the rest of the tested field landed at 1% or less.

can’t tell if you mean Biden holding or Warren rising

joe who

v curious about the 1 percent of Democratic primary voters who don't know Joe Biden's name

― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Tuesday, September 17, 2019 8:53 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

That it went from 1% to 2% to 1% is particularly funny.

dems getting comfortable smh

a margin of error of plus or minus 4.36 percentage points !!!

this, plus that it is a national poll, while presidential elections are run as a set of very state-specific elections, renders this poll of only the broadest, vaguest, most general sort of value.

Not many union members stayed to hear Amy Klobuchar here at AFL-CIO conference in Philly. Place cleared out after Bernie left. pic.twitter.com/PBXyUddf7O

— Steve Peoples (@sppeoples) September 17, 2019

crowd probably afraid of flying objects

Why is she still in the race?

Morning Joe likes her.

Think of all the losers in the past who have hung on into at least the first few months of primaries. Not sure why anyone would drop out now unless they're out of money.

dare you to read it

Elizabeth Warren is on a trajectory to win the Democratic presidential nomination. But how electable is she? @jonathanchait writes https://t.co/Jkr7SbEzEx

— New York Magazine (@NYMag) September 18, 2019

Guess the Author

Bernie, of course, is not electable either because Pundit Fatigue + Hatred of Real Dem Socialism

lol at "now-likely"

guess the DNC made some calls

Biden stroke scheduled for Nov. 19 iirc

I think Warren’s upward momentum is slowing down a bit

not going to sweat a second derivative in September tho

Bernie has a ceiling, Biden's support is thin and old and tired and predicated on a basically false premise, Warren is the only one showing momentum at the moment.

I think Warren’s upward momentum is slowing down a bit

― Non stop chantar (crüt),

Quite the opposite.

I feel like she’ll pick up a lot of the Buttigeig and Kamala dorks when they inevitably drop out. Maybe not their money, but surely the primary voters.

I mean, you know she's doing spectacular because the MSNBC hosts are starting to panic at the idea of a liberal nominee.

damn, she seems to keep stepping up on talking orderly sense about the long terrible arc of the past 40 yrs and the “I AM NOT AFRAID” line—i think this combo can cross over.

my only fear is that I think she's really ill-suited to battle Trump in the media - if the Pocahantas thing is any indication, he'll throw wild haymakers and dangle all sorts of bait and she is liable to take it rather than knock it back.

as she staffs up as the going gets going I assume someone will help her run the No Drama Obama playbook

idk, the "black guy that can't get angry" dynamic (old white person: "look, he's not scary after all!") isn't something she can really deploy as an old white woman

warren was great on colbert last night.

I mean her policy stuff is generally on-point, but she is not "cool" (she shouldn't try to be, either; that would be even more embarassing)

xp

Colbert is a very sympathetic forum/audience

idk, the "black guy that can't get angry" dynamic (old white person: "look, he's not scary after all!") isn't something she can really deploy as an old white woman

No, but she can deploy the "settling down an irritable grandchild" playbook.

yeah, that might be her only angle.

how much does America love grandmas?

maybe she should just go full on Mom from Futurama

I mean her policy stuff is generally on-point, but she is not "cool" (she shouldn't try to be, either; that would be even more embarassing)

xp

I think the *perception* of Warren's momentum is surging -- the Chait piece, the Jim Cramer freakout, the attention from the Washington Square rally -- but recent polls haven't necessarily borne this out. Her numbers didn't change much after last week's debate. But it's possible that perceived momentum can shape actual momentum, and polls will probably be lagging indicators of that.

No she goes with orderly awareness, then pivots to what i guess is STRAIGHT-TALKY URGENCY. But she’s good at it imo.

my only fear is that I think she's really ill-suited to battle Trump in the media - if the Pocahantas thing is any indication, he'll throw wild haymakers and dangle all sorts of bait and she is liable to take it rather than knock it back.

I think that's been her only serious misstep so far and I feel like she's probably learned from it. idk if Trump yelling "POCAHANTAS!!" over and over is gonna do much and I think even the hardcore chuds are gonna have a hard time pretending to care about that

my only fear is that I think she's really ill-suited to battle Trump in the media

Corporate media's biggest reason to love Biden. I've seen no evidence that he can battle Trump, and seen no evidence that she can't.

jaymc, have you seen the Qunnipiac poll?. It was all the Twitter chatter yesterday.

the Washington Sq rally was a very sympathetic forum/audience.

Campaign rallies tend to be like that.

Trump and Biden arguing w each other would just be a mishmash of nonsensical garbage

xpost yeah, I was just making fun of the colbert post.

I've seen no evidence that he can battle Trump, and seen no evidence that she can't.

otm

warren is much, much smarter than biden or trump. we're still in the early days, it'll be interesting to see how she chooses to fight back when trump renews his focus on her

She's been yelled at and yelled at corporate hacks for almost 20 years, and Trump was just another one until 2016.

tbh I feel like Kamala would be the best in those debates but I don't want her to get the nom

feel like the ability to "take on Trump" is kind of overrated for the Dems, I thought a ton of polling showed that Hillary handedly won all 3 debates but it didn't really matter a whole lot

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump refuses to debate tbh

tbh the only context where "taking on Trump" matters is one where we reintroduce dueling back into the political sphere

There was one part of Warren's Colbert interview I didn't like - when he started poking at her about "will taxes go up? why won't you talk about taxes going up?", she kind of shut down for a few seconds and it was a little off-putting. It's a dumb question anyway, but I wish her answer would be something like "well, if we want to keep taxes from going up, we'll just have to buy one fewer bomber that year" instead of talking about "costs" going down.

I agree that "taking on Trump" should not be the goal - it accepts a frame that Trump is popular and must be argued against, when in fact that's not true at all. Most people strongly dislike him, and arguing with him shouldn't be about defeating his "ideas," it should be about saying, "Look, we all know this is a huge problem, so let me come in and fix it."

which is why I didn't say debates, I said "in the media" - because all the namecalling and shit-talking is going to take place on Twitter, at press conferences, and in environments where Trump can avoid being directly challenged or made to look foolish

xp

The strategy should be "energize people who didn't vote/empower people who couldn't vote" IMO because the people who voted for Trump will get themselves back to the polls to vote for him again; those who haven't repudiated him by now are lost causes not worth convincing.