PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

And anecdotally I know young Tories who are planning to vote LD and say the same of their friends - even the Leave ones.

V curious about the latter. Are they more bothered about Johnson or just how it's all been handled over the last 3 years?

(C&ped for bonus pretentiousness)

Not sure what happens when the Prime Minister is in chokey when an election's called tbf.

xxp the former mostly - but it’s his cabinet too, it’s full of people who aren’t socially liberal and that plus the prorogation & intent to crash out has done it

Boris' strategy was a good idea - and has worked on some Brexit Party voters - but I reckon they fucked a lot of the execution of it. Basically if there is an extension beyond 31st I reckon Boris would resign.

Otherwise there is nothing in the numbers as they are plugged in through our wonderful FPTP system so what would be more useful is to see constituency level polling like in Scotland to get a better idea.

sadlol

Great to spend some time with these two great ladies! Gisela Stuart and Kate Hoey #girlpower! pic.twitter.com/U5ALgnxi5V

— Arlene Foster (@DUPleader) September 6, 2019

May got basically all the leave vote in 2017 - UKIP collapsed and they were the main beneficiaries. But two and a half years on things have changed, stakes are far higher and everything is polarised. Smaller parties got squeezed last time because it was such an important election and Farron was awful, so interesting to see if that continues in a GE campaign.

profoundly cursed

er, xp

re: Butler he is a pretty good analyst. I do learn a few things from him and its great that he writes regularly for the LRB blog. Frankly they need him as the likes of Runciman just don't cut it. Also he does something Perry Anderson often doesn't do, which is to pretend this country even exists (I don't blame PA but most of us do live here).

No argument with that but even the "three years off sick and retire at 50" line was a v Toryish dig

This line doesn't appear in the print version, for some reason. She likes the swear words, doesn't she, MH? Pretty blummen shocking. I'd rather read Grace Dent.

Love too #girlpower when you can be prosecuted for buying abortion pills in NI

Speaking of

“Ireland: Our Cuba?” A Tory MP authored pamphlet from the 70s pic.twitter.com/7wpxPDUhGR

— Jon Stone (@joncstone) September 7, 2019

The former Director of Public Prosecutions Lord MacDonald has told Sky News Prime Minister Boris Johnson could go to prison if he refuses to delay Brexit

— Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) September 7, 2019

martyring yourself... probably good for one half of your coalition. the LD half of that coalition will think you've gone off the deep-end though

if he's going to keep on ratcheting things up like this, then he needs to figure out how to put on enough votes to counteract the losses to the LDs and SNP

Well this is the thing. There aren’t that many seats.

those polling numbers for may were extraordinary - I do worry that this time JC will be more of a known quantity but... at the same time, I think the effect of 'personalities' on campaigns is a little over-stated.

you saw the poll bounce last time when the manifesto came out - you'd hope a more expansive offer next time round would have a corresponding positive effect

Good Stephen Bush bit on JRM: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/09/conservatives-are-taking-big-risk-jacob-rees-mogg

Pretty sure the more people see of Johnson, outside of the comfort zone he's been cossetted in for his entire political career, the more people will think, "I'm not voting for this clown".

Yeah it's been interesting watching pro leave talkers trying to position Boris as their strong man. He just doesn't fit.

Amber Rudd has apparently resigned the whip.

Keep 'em coming

Never a dull moment.

mmmmmmmm lovely

Niiiiice

I have resigned from Cabinet and surrendered the Conservative Whip.

I cannot stand by as good, loyal moderate Conservatives are expelled.

I have spoken to the PM and my Association Chairman to explain.

I remain committed to the One Nation values that drew me into politics. pic.twitter.com/kYmZHbLMES

— Amber Rudd MP (@AmberRuddHR) September 7, 2019

she'd have lost her seat anyway, but loving it.

https://i.imgur.com/VZ88Pdo.gif

One Nation values lol stfu Amber

amber rudd has resigned to spend more time being completely okay with the hostile environment

— i am a skeleton and i am watching the cricket (@stephenaharper) September 7, 2019

Genuinely though how are they going to find enough candidates for a November election if it keeps up like this? Labour have been selecting candidates for ages.

One Nation Under A Gove...

well yeah she was happy to reside over a regime deporting people and locking them out from this nation of many sub-nations that decidedly wasn't one fucking nation.

Nigel Farage has offered Boris Johnson a “non-aggression pact” in Sunday Times interview, saying they can win a majority of 100 together

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) September 7, 2019

he might have lend boris some mps, never mind standing them down the way things are going.

John Mann also standing down.

thank fuck

saw a "the conservatives will lose all seats in scotland, now ruth has gone" take out in the wild today... think you'll find ruth has gone because...

someone needs to write a piece about how right wing pols claiming One-Nation toryism as their doctrine is the worst kind of bullshit

My favourite iteration of that is all those media women who suggest Ken Clarke as head of GNU, but every single last one of them threw a fit a few years ago when he appeared on R4 and started chatting shit about ‘acquaintance rape’ v ‘rape-rape’.

John Mann also standing down.

Life is good.

A current (non-No10) special adviser texts re Amber Rudd:

“She should have been first out - she’s trashed her rep anyway now, my message would be fuck off to the Lib Dems where you belong.”

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) September 7, 2019

xp I had never read his views on this, Jesus Christ
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13444770

good luck uk

The Conservatives have extended their lead over Labour as pro-Brexit voters return to the party, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

Despite a week of political chaos that has seen Boris Johnson purge the party of 21 MPs who oppose his plans, the Tories recorded a 10-point lead over Labour. For the first time since March, more than half (53%) of leave voters now intend to vote Conservative. Almost half of all voters (46%) now think the Conservative party has in effect become the Brexit party.

The polling will be used by Johnson’s team as evidence that their ruthless strategy to push hard to secure Brexit and hold an election can work. However, the strategy has run aground as opposition parties are blocking an election from taking place.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/07/tories-extend-lead-over-labour-to-10-despite-chaotic-week

Rudd-y Hell
Down To Earth With A Rudd
Rudd And Honour oh hold on

If they are rising in the polls then the King vs Parliament narrative is working, or at least working "enough" to cover the eventuality of having to do extension after all. Parliament blocked the King is then plausible enough to hold off Farage if GE were post Oct-31 (if it really is Brexit Party they need to hold off).

I'm not super sold on the idea Boris has failed, or even that he's made a miscalculation. Maybe he has but this idea he's destroying the Tories electorally seems wildly optimistic

Fucked it from the perspective of numbers. They need to have a majority to do what they want, and that survation poll is putting them in a worse place than 2017. Not even the DUP would cover it. And he has got himself in quite a corner. There can be probably be a not very damaging climbdown for Johnson.

Corbyn would probably go if that poll is right though.

The point of the whole thing is to turn the Tories into enough of an ERG party to neutralise the Brexit Party, and that’s what the polls now show. Most of the leaverish Just Get On With It voters who this appeals to are over 40.

Polls ask a really tiny sample, all things considered...

Polls, posting as they normally etc.

I would say we haven't gone into an election campaign just yet. From the evidence its difficult to see Johnson holding it together. OTOH a lot of people will vote Lib Dem unless the Lab line of another deal (- May's red lines) with remain as option in another ref cuts through. And it's also whether the campaign is all about Brexit, like we thought it might be in 2017. It can't be all about that.