PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

me and calz are generally of one mind

Although it'll probably come down to Tory rebels again, especially if they try this wheeze:

As a public service, here's the draft text if the bill Theresa May's team were thinking of introducing to override the FTPA in 2017, and which could be wheeled out again if certainty about an election date was required. pic.twitter.com/Vch82WMKGK

— Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) September 2, 2019

(If No Deal legislation is done Tuesday/Wednesday it won't matter by that point anyway, though)

xp But isn't that supposed to be politically impossible, gyac? Johnson is married to Oct 31st — if he changes it that shows he's scared of No Deal and the Brexit Party stand against him

my dad's dad, who was generally a quiet, apolitical bloke as i recall, once said that the biggest mistake Wilson made was not shooting half the Tories in 1964 pour discourager les autres

Omg this thread

The Lib Dem candidate for Uxbridge is utterly batshit https://t.co/3QEvQRisoe

— Sam ✌️ (@samisam147) September 1, 2019

xxp nothing’s impossible when you lie like you breathe

can't believe there's a crazy entitled FBPEeep Lib Dem candidate

don't mind the FT being the FT but that fuckin piece was imported into thr irish times today without any kind of critical addition for our audience which is shitty stuff

Didn’t our IT close or cut a load of jobs or something?

Lbr, 99% of IT readers are West brits anyway

xp opposition aren’t going to abstain, the point of being opposition is to try to get into government when you can and saying “we’re abstaining” is just like saying “oh fuck don’t take all our seats Boris nooooo”

I'm not sure here if you're presenting a view or whether you're saying you believe this - do you reckon the gold ring of "getting into power just after a no-deal Brexit" is still worth the type of hardmanning you're describing, like?

i possibly expect too much from our paper of record and god knows it hasnt merited that since long before kennedy departed

xxp nothing’s impossible when you lie like you breathe

Yeah but they still need a pretext of some kind. Feels like the intended plan here is:

1. Lose the vote that stops No Deal.
2. Kick out the rebels. Lol Hammond.
3. Say that "our great deal we were this close to sealing is now impossible as parliament removed the threat of No Deal that was terrifying the EU, so we need a new parliament -- election time."

That's the only route that keeps the Brexit Party stood down (because the Tory campaign will say they need a majority to put No Deal back on the table).

yes agree but at that point the timetable of an election makes No Deal not a fictive bargaining chip but an actual policy

Deselecting potentially double-figures MPs andwinning a majority is it.

Are any of the Tory mps who might lose the whip more popular than a plausible replacement candidate in their constituency? I.e. are the tories jeopardising those seats?

It would take a lot to unseat Hammond and Grieve - a lot more than Johnson at least.

Tory voters would vote for Fred West in a blue rosette tbf

IDS, Rudd, Villiers and Johnson all vulnerable.

I'm not sure here if you're presenting a view or whether you're saying you believe this

Or that other circumstances are in play?

I only ever understand 78% of this thread on good days but I certainly can’t imagine how the opposition saying no to a chance at a GE could be seen as anything other than a cowardly admission that you’re not to be taken seriously

no wonder blair is looking so old, he's posting to ilx as andrew farrell

Regardless of “circumstances” I mean there’s always circumstances

I guess this is Andrew's point:

Blair made two points:
1. Voting for early election under Fixed-term Parliaments Act would allow Johnson to choose date after 31 Oct, forcing no-deal Brexit while parliament dissolved
2. Voting for pre-Brexit election, eg on 17 Oct, is still a bad idea because Johnson would win pic.twitter.com/ZicYAkOl5V

— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) September 2, 2019

yeah but the entire economy being on a literal countdown to implosion at a fixed date is an incredibly unusual kind of circumstance.

I don't think no 2 is at all true.

Someone comment on no 1?

Yeah, I don't think Labour can refuse an election for point 2 because that *would* be just saying they're scared.

I think they can for point 1 because it's negligent to allow Johnson his No Deal when they can prevent it.

who is this please

In no way is it in @UKLabour’s - or the UK’s - interest to vote for a #GE. BJ will use it as cover for a Brexit that’ll kill off the last of our industry & provide all the excuses the hard right need to introduce the low tax, low wage, unregulated economy they’ve always wanted.

— Owen Smith (@OwenSmith_MP) September 2, 2019

the other hydra

But a pre Brexit election is saying:

Put exit day preparations on hold
If Corbyn gets in, he has two weeks or less to negotiate with EU?
If Boris gets in, welp, we’re out of time lol
???
We’re all going to die

Although I expect Corbyn getting in would be on the back of a platform to extend and 2nd ref

It would be stupid to have an election after no deal because you might have a lot of chaos under that situation xps to stet

But if labour can plausibly refuse an election, Boris can sit on his hand til the 31st, knowing that the default is crashing out and assuming he thinks the EU will blink and try to avoid a no deal. Meanwhile you’ll have people panic buying and stress about perishables and medication, and who’ll thank Labour for avoiding a GE then?

I agree (with yez, not Blair) on point 2 - my desire for Corbyn to win a pre-deadline election can be seen from space.

That's the thing -- you can't have an election without a proper extension: by the time the new parliament is all sworn in and has held its Queen's Speech there would barely even be time for a new government to legislate May's withdrawal agreement before the 31st, I'm not even sure there is enough.

And yes it would be stupid to have an election immediately post No Deal unless you actually believe it will be OK, which I think only Rees-Mogg thinks now. And the Tories know that. That's why Boris can't just sit on his hands and wait for No Deal: we know the EU won't blink, and then he'll be really fucked trying to fit in an election amid actual chaos.

So they want the only election they have a decent hope of winning: one before the 31st, where No Deal is still an option. Labour shouldn't give it to them: it should demand either a healthy extension or ruling out No Deal (or both) before agreeing to it.

xp If Corbyn gets in, he immediately applies for an extension, surely?

The real danger is the high likelihood that no-one will 'get in' to a clear majority - you would hope under the circumstances that some sort of coalition would for to at least ask for an extension, but, well..

Also I apologise for the inadvertent image of BoJo giving himself the stranger’s handshake

But I don't see the Tories winning a pre-crash out election outright majority if they put No deal on their manifesto. The Brexit Party would go away on the one hand, but they would lose Tory moderates and Scotland xp to Stet

gonna take the heat off farrell by suggesting that a) labour do take the election but b) organise a non-aggression pact with the lib dems, snp etc whereby they won't fight one another's existing seats or con marginals

have at me alphie, i just saved the country

I think it would be dangerous to overstate either of how much the Tories know No Deal will be a disaster or how much Boris knows the EU won't blink.

Save yourself first imago.

would you really argue with a strategy whose focused aim is the destruction of the tories

Another misgiving doing the rounds is that MPs having voted for GE before the 31st, Johnson has the power to switch the date to after that date.

I don't get how anyone would think the EU would blink. It's so weird. Macron almost got the EU to throw out UK in March. Tories are so weird.

imago you are too free and pure for us. Shine on you crazy diamond etc.

I don't really see the Tories winning either, but what are they supposed to do? They need a majority -- they can't do any kind of governing with a majority of 1. They must have an election. Which one do they choose?

1. One before Oct 31st, with exit day unchanged/where they can still talk tough about No Deal, and with the Brexit Party stood down.

2. One before Oct 31st, with exit day changed/where they rule out No Deal and have the Brexit Party standing against them.

3. One after Oct 31st, post-No Deal, with people eating dogs and cats.

If they choose 1, they lose Scotland and LD seats. If they choose 2, they lose all the headbangers in all the seats. If they choose 3 they lose with fireworks. I think they're banking on 1 as their best hope. Labour should deny them that.

xp Suzy: he theoretically does have that ability, but it'd be crazy to do.

Thanks Stet I do get what you are saying. For 2) it Would need good communication to make sure it doesn't look like we are running off.

meanwhile in the actual cabinet:

Analysis of leak of blueprint for the 5pm meeting, key points are:
1. Johnson gvt thinks that Pt must be deprived of ability to do extension/2ref/revocation
2. Only then will they talk. And they believe Commisison willing to look at backstop alternatives
3. Draft legal text ready https://t.co/Y66ExGHdNe

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) September 2, 2019

wtf does 1 even mean? "Johnson thinks executive should have unlimted powerz"?

maybe he's going to seize the mace

Yeah those Scottish seats are gone and you wouldn’t bet against them beating the LDs in every marginal they go head to head. So they need more Labour seats to get to a majority, but are there that many in the country to make up for the losses?

What's it like in East Anglia and Mids? I would rather have The Brexit Party squeezing the Tories up there.