PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

Tidbit from the Guardian liveblog: Apparently the Corbyn-wings favored candidate for next leader is Rebecca Long-Bailey. Anyone care to enlighten a poor Dane as to who that is?
Young-ish MP with limited experience but strong working-class / union roots. She has supported Corbyn from the start and is generally seen as a good / relatable communicator.

― ShariVari, Monday, 2 September 2019 12:32 (twenty-three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Apparently she took over Hazel Blears' constituency - now there's an upgrade for you.

people's republic of salford, where corbs is trying to woo manchester city councillors today, to which we can only say gl

Cancel their dinners.

Boris Johnson has called a unexpected meeting of the cabinet today at 5pm, multiple Whitehall sources have confirmed.

Tidbit from the Guardian liveblog: Apparently the Corbyn-wings favored candidate for next leader is Rebecca Long-Bailey. Anyone care to enlighten a poor Dane as to who that is?

― Frederik B, Monday, 2 September 2019 bookmarkflaglink

She's left wing Fred but take consolation in the fact that she's young and might be more of an imperialist so she could still nuke Russia.

Speculation is mounting that Boris Johnson could call a snap general election if backbench rebels succeed in passing a bill to delay Brexit, with a Downing Street source saying the issue would be treated as “an expression of confidence” in the government.

Johnson’s cabinet ministers are being summoned for an emergency cabinet meeting on Monday afternoon, before the prime minister is to address Conservative MPs at a No 10 drinks reception.

"But you don't understand - Snap Election is the name of my (rescue) dog!"

hurrrahhh

don't get this - because that's something he has said, on camera, what? hundreds of times now?

The context here being would it make more sense to abstain if Boris has made it clear that he's going to call an election in early November?

Laura Smith is another very left wing young Labour MP

In September 2018 Smith called for a general strike to "topple" Theresa May's Conservative government. Deputy Labour Leader, Tom Watson, quickly distanced the Labour Party from Smith saying her comments were "not particularly helpful". Shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey added: "Just to make it perfectly clear a general strike is not Labour Party policy."

Also keys to the city for Matt #2

xp opposition aren’t going to abstain, the point of being opposition is to try to get into government when you can and saying “we’re abstaining” is just like saying “oh fuck don’t take all our seats Boris nooooo”

Lol dealwithit.gif

The Financial Times is right:

“The Labour leadership is determined to shift power away from bosses and landlords and to workers and tenants.” pic.twitter.com/781CAuOCqw

— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) September 2, 2019

xp It's also like saying "we don't trust you as far as we can throw you and you're up to something" Viz:

NEW: Remainer source says they expect PM to put down a dissolution motion (calling an election) with what appears to be a “reasonable” polling date before 31 Oct, trick MPs into voting for it, then use prerogative proclamation power to move polling day to after 31s Oct.

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) September 2, 2019

Who will spot this dastardly ruse in time?

xp

GO JEZZA LET'S HANG THE CUNTS

I’m guessing they would go to the EU for an extension if that was their intention - an election is one of the things the EU would grant an extension for.

xp calzinoposting

me and calz are generally of one mind

Although it'll probably come down to Tory rebels again, especially if they try this wheeze:

As a public service, here's the draft text if the bill Theresa May's team were thinking of introducing to override the FTPA in 2017, and which could be wheeled out again if certainty about an election date was required. pic.twitter.com/Vch82WMKGK

— Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) September 2, 2019

(If No Deal legislation is done Tuesday/Wednesday it won't matter by that point anyway, though)

xp But isn't that supposed to be politically impossible, gyac? Johnson is married to Oct 31st — if he changes it that shows he's scared of No Deal and the Brexit Party stand against him

my dad's dad, who was generally a quiet, apolitical bloke as i recall, once said that the biggest mistake Wilson made was not shooting half the Tories in 1964 pour discourager les autres

Omg this thread

The Lib Dem candidate for Uxbridge is utterly batshit https://t.co/3QEvQRisoe

— Sam ✌️ (@samisam147) September 1, 2019

xxp nothing’s impossible when you lie like you breathe

can't believe there's a crazy entitled FBPEeep Lib Dem candidate

don't mind the FT being the FT but that fuckin piece was imported into thr irish times today without any kind of critical addition for our audience which is shitty stuff

Didn’t our IT close or cut a load of jobs or something?

Lbr, 99% of IT readers are West brits anyway

xp opposition aren’t going to abstain, the point of being opposition is to try to get into government when you can and saying “we’re abstaining” is just like saying “oh fuck don’t take all our seats Boris nooooo”

I'm not sure here if you're presenting a view or whether you're saying you believe this - do you reckon the gold ring of "getting into power just after a no-deal Brexit" is still worth the type of hardmanning you're describing, like?

i possibly expect too much from our paper of record and god knows it hasnt merited that since long before kennedy departed

xxp nothing’s impossible when you lie like you breathe

Yeah but they still need a pretext of some kind. Feels like the intended plan here is:

1. Lose the vote that stops No Deal.
2. Kick out the rebels. Lol Hammond.
3. Say that "our great deal we were this close to sealing is now impossible as parliament removed the threat of No Deal that was terrifying the EU, so we need a new parliament -- election time."

That's the only route that keeps the Brexit Party stood down (because the Tory campaign will say they need a majority to put No Deal back on the table).

yes agree but at that point the timetable of an election makes No Deal not a fictive bargaining chip but an actual policy

Deselecting potentially double-figures MPs andwinning a majority is it.

Are any of the Tory mps who might lose the whip more popular than a plausible replacement candidate in their constituency? I.e. are the tories jeopardising those seats?

It would take a lot to unseat Hammond and Grieve - a lot more than Johnson at least.

Tory voters would vote for Fred West in a blue rosette tbf

IDS, Rudd, Villiers and Johnson all vulnerable.

I'm not sure here if you're presenting a view or whether you're saying you believe this

Or that other circumstances are in play?

I only ever understand 78% of this thread on good days but I certainly can’t imagine how the opposition saying no to a chance at a GE could be seen as anything other than a cowardly admission that you’re not to be taken seriously

no wonder blair is looking so old, he's posting to ilx as andrew farrell

Regardless of “circumstances” I mean there’s always circumstances

I guess this is Andrew's point:

Blair made two points:
1. Voting for early election under Fixed-term Parliaments Act would allow Johnson to choose date after 31 Oct, forcing no-deal Brexit while parliament dissolved
2. Voting for pre-Brexit election, eg on 17 Oct, is still a bad idea because Johnson would win pic.twitter.com/ZicYAkOl5V

— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) September 2, 2019

yeah but the entire economy being on a literal countdown to implosion at a fixed date is an incredibly unusual kind of circumstance.

I don't think no 2 is at all true.

Someone comment on no 1?

Yeah, I don't think Labour can refuse an election for point 2 because that *would* be just saying they're scared.

I think they can for point 1 because it's negligent to allow Johnson his No Deal when they can prevent it.

who is this please

In no way is it in @UKLabour’s - or the UK’s - interest to vote for a #GE. BJ will use it as cover for a Brexit that’ll kill off the last of our industry & provide all the excuses the hard right need to introduce the low tax, low wage, unregulated economy they’ve always wanted.

— Owen Smith (@OwenSmith_MP) September 2, 2019

the other hydra

But a pre Brexit election is saying:

Put exit day preparations on hold
If Corbyn gets in, he has two weeks or less to negotiate with EU?
If Boris gets in, welp, we’re out of time lol
???
We’re all going to die

Although I expect Corbyn getting in would be on the back of a platform to extend and 2nd ref

It would be stupid to have an election after no deal because you might have a lot of chaos under that situation xps to stet

But if labour can plausibly refuse an election, Boris can sit on his hand til the 31st, knowing that the default is crashing out and assuming he thinks the EU will blink and try to avoid a no deal. Meanwhile you’ll have people panic buying and stress about perishables and medication, and who’ll thank Labour for avoiding a GE then?

I agree (with yez, not Blair) on point 2 - my desire for Corbyn to win a pre-deadline election can be seen from space.

That's the thing -- you can't have an election without a proper extension: by the time the new parliament is all sworn in and has held its Queen's Speech there would barely even be time for a new government to legislate May's withdrawal agreement before the 31st, I'm not even sure there is enough.

And yes it would be stupid to have an election immediately post No Deal unless you actually believe it will be OK, which I think only Rees-Mogg thinks now. And the Tories know that. That's why Boris can't just sit on his hands and wait for No Deal: we know the EU won't blink, and then he'll be really fucked trying to fit in an election amid actual chaos.

So they want the only election they have a decent hope of winning: one before the 31st, where No Deal is still an option. Labour shouldn't give it to them: it should demand either a healthy extension or ruling out No Deal (or both) before agreeing to it.

xp If Corbyn gets in, he immediately applies for an extension, surely?

The real danger is the high likelihood that no-one will 'get in' to a clear majority - you would hope under the circumstances that some sort of coalition would for to at least ask for an extension, but, well..