Rideshare services - Uber, Lyft, Hailo, etc.

What's his source for the valuation of non-public Uber shares in December 2014?

https://venturebeat.com/2015/05/10/timeline-how-ubers-valuation-went-from-60m-in-2011-to-a-rumored-50b-this-month/

This has Uber's valuation at $17B in June 2014, and the market cap today is $56B. While it's hard to know exactly what the terms of the private investment were, wouldn't that imply that if you had invested in Uber in June 2014 , you'd have earned nearly a 300% return? I can't really fathom what that tweet is supposed to mean -- the screenshot is just the percent change from the prior day's close so I don't know what the hell he's talking about. Am I missing something here?

Also kind of irrelevant, since an ordinary layperson COULDN'T have invested in Uber in 2014.

oh sorry he said December 2014, so I guess that means the valuation was more like $40B. Still, that gives you something in the range of a 40% return, not .6%.

Also kind of irrelevant, since an ordinary layperson COULDN'T have invested in Uber in 2014.

― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Tuesday, August 27, 2019 6:04 PM (seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i don't see why this makes the point irrelevant. he's not talking about the implications of this observation for a random person's 401k:

What's amazing is how little chilling effect its performance seems to have had on Silicon Valley

VCs so often pour money into a sector based on the apparent success of a single company. But the poor public markets reception to the most-anticipated unicorn barely registers

— Eliot Brown (@eliotwb) August 27, 2019

(although it was actually relatively easy to invest in uber as a random person back then. it famously had a very active pre-ipo secondary market.)

as for the numbers, i'm not actually sure what he's talking about either. agree that the screenshot is a red herring. he wrote this longer piece but it's firewalled.

for the companies that raised the most money, the return was lower https://t.co/8A0puufhVH pic.twitter.com/c7OgFiHaMg

— Eliot Brown (@eliotwb) August 27, 2019

(fun fact, my employer is on this list and not in one of the good places)

it's not just VCs. superstar fund managers get zillions for steering funds that routinely underperform standard indexes.

One thing I often wonder about Uber -- if they weren't plowing so much money into trying to become the first all-self-driving taxi network by actually developing self-driving taxis, would their main existing business be profitable? Maybe that's something I could figure out reading their SEC filings. Like it seems to me like if you can be profitable as a regular brick-and-mortar car service where you have to actually own a fleet of cars, medallions, a dispatch, etc., then in theory you should be even more profitable if all you do is build an app and make your drivers carry all the expense and risk. Like could a ride-sharing/ride-hailing app business be profitable today if that's all it focused on (e.g. something like Juno).

The article posted by Elvis Telecom spoke a lot about that: https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2019/05/ubers-path-of-destruction/

Short answer: No, Uber would not be profitable, because the reason it was good - and it really was, I used it myself on Sundays when I was too hungover to bike to church - was not the app, it was the 20 billion dollars they spent sending more riders on the street, and keeping prices lower, than the fundamental economics of taxi companies allow for.

Yeah that makes sense. I would ultimately pay at least the same price as a taxi to use an Uber-type service, fwiw, because taxis have just never been easy to get where I live. Plus they have the child seat option, which taxis do not have. So maybe there is an opening for that. I typically use Juno now (which I think is only available in NYC and maybe a few other cities) instead of Uber, because drivers prefer it (it pays them better). Consequently there are also more drivers for Juno available at any given time--they all drive for multiple services but tend to prefer a Juno ride to an Uber or Lyft ride. No idea if the company is profitable though.

Well, apparently Juno is not profitable, and is up for sale:

https://qz.com/1574399/ride-hail-service-juno-is-up-for-sale/

It's funny how the company that makes out ok while paying a living wage is Via, which focuses solely on shared rides -- it's basically like one of those airport shuttles that does a bunch of pickups and dropoffs. I.e. it's a shittier version of...PUBLIC TRANSIT.

Also didn't realize that Gett owned Juno now. In Tel Aviv, Gett is the only app you can use and it works only with regulated taxis that are also street-hail taxis.

As a funny aside "Gett" is also the hebrew word for a religious grant of divorce.

the median cost of salary, benefits and overhead for an engineering/product employee at uber has to be half a million dollars. this is a big cut https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/10/uber-lays-off-435-people-across-engineering-and-product-teams/amp/.

Not enough to cover 20bn a year in losses of course.

My wife's friend's husband is a director of engineering at Uber (maybe not anymore lol?)... and I'd guess he doesn't make that much, maybe half of your estimate?

if you're a director of engineering at uber in the bay area then you are making an absolute *minimum* total comp (cash, bonus, stock grant) of $300k. i'd be surprised if it wasn't significantly more than that, likely over $500k. i think you've seriously underestimated this guy's income. here's a link to crowdsourced data which matches what i know from working in the industry https://www.levels.fyi/?compare=Uber,Google,Facebook&track=Software%20Engineering%20Manager.

also like i said: salary, benefits and overhead. if you fire someone you pay $100k/year you save a lot more than $100k/year.

to be clear my point is not that this is going to save them a significant amount of money relative to their losses (although it's probably more money than people outside tech would guess). it's more: this is a messed up company and seems like it was very badly run for a long time (and possibly still is). some gossip on this https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20931644

yeah no i'm just talking salary, although they did just buy a house (modest 2BR) with exercised stock options once the embargo ended. as an aside, he has NEVER has mentioned where he works.

i just asked my wife if she knows if he was affected and shes not sure yet.

Uber pushed back on Wednesday against a newly passed California bill that effectively requires companies to reclassify their contract workers as employees, in a sign of the emerging resistance that the measure is prompting across the gig economy.

Tony West, Uber’s chief legal officer, said in a news conference that the ride-hailing company would not treat its drivers, who are independent contractors, as employees under the California bill. He said that drivers were not a core part of Uber’s business and could maintain their independent status when the measure goes into effect as state law on Jan. 1.

Uber’s business, Mr. West said, is not providing rides but “serving as a technology platform for several different types of digital marketplaces.” He added that the company was “no stranger to legal battles.”

FWIW I sometimes think it would be better to improve regulation of "gig economy" jobs and companies rather than try to shoehorn them into the existing employer/employee framework. Like maybe another category is needed btw employee and independent contractor.

looking forward to Uber collapsing/being litigated out of business tbh

We don't need another category.

how about masters and slaves

the thing is they are employers

suck it, shitty companies:
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/California-governor-signs-labor-law-setting-up-14450116.php

This is huge not only for the obvious, but also because Uber will have to argue the *exact opposite* legal framework as it does in opposing AB5. The legal walls are closing in. https://t.co/RxnILrYb3t

— Aaron W. Gordon (@A_W_Gordon) September 19, 2019

'130-year-old laws don't count'

https://qz.com/1683778/lyft-sees-raising-ride-prices-as-its-path-to-profitability/

“We believe we have a clear path to profitability,” Roberts said. “We began to adjust prices on select routes and in select cities based on costs and demand elasticities. We expect that these changes will accelerate Lyft’s path to profitability, and further, we believe these price adjustments reflect an industry trend.”

So they plan to fix prices (in collusion with their competitors) and then expect not to suffer any reduction in demand...

lollllll

cost and demand elasticities! impress man use big words!

If humanity is still around in 10 years, someone please revive this post in 10 years for the lols.

uber and lyft shouldn't even be allowed to pick up at airports -- it's like an enormous game of hüsker dü

take a fuckin cab

I feel like I am a luber driver in another dimension.

uber and lyft shouldn't even be allowed to pick up at airports -- it's like an enormous game of hüsker dü

take a fuckin cab

build trains

well, yes

https://www.axios.com/uber-ceo-saudi-arabia-jamal-khashoggi-mistake-92865f2a-d97c-4d6a-b171-5e7c0a69e77a.html

Who among us hasn't accidentally intentionally had someone killed

I'm sure in five years, his family will laugh about it.

It looks like Uber has been denied a license to operate in London as TFL found thousands of cases where they ID of the driver didn’t match the person actually doing the driving.

Interesting to see if this will extend to Uber Eats - tons of undocumented ppl from Brazil (and elswhere, I assume, but my connections are w/ the Brazilian community) driving for them, six or seven ppl sharing one ID. A friend who's involved told me the running joke is to say the vehicle's registered to Bolsonaro.

They can still operate while appealing so this will make no difference for now

I was at a licensing event largely focusing on taxi drivers last week and got a sense that a perceived issue with ride-share apps is raising regulatory barriers for traditional drivers as well. The guy from Uber referenced the idea that some of the new rules are, in part, motivated by xenophobia.

I’m fully on board with banning them from the entire country but there has to be a way of mitigating the impact on the (mostly minority) drivers.

I finally gave in and put fucking Lyft on my phone because the cab dispatch service I’ve been using for years has gone to utter shit + the curb app suuuuuuuuucks

I am really grouchy about this

from 8K

LYFT layoffs: 17 percent of workforce, or 982 employees

furloughing 288 employees

salary reductions:
30 percent cut for execs
20 percent for VPs
10 percent for all other employees
board pay cut by 30 percent of *cash* comp for 2nd quarterhttps://t.co/8fSVnbPgOr

— rat king (@MikeIsaac) April 29, 2020

Uber’s CTO steps down as company reportedly mulls 20 percent layoffs https://t.co/MIoNUJFjUw pic.twitter.com/6kXbfn5FUS

— The Verge (@verge) April 28, 2020

Deep cuts at Uber today:
- 3,000 more layoffs (on top of 3,700 earlier this month)
- 45 offices closing globally
- Transit downsizing
- delivery services merging (Eats, Cornershop, direct)

— rocket surgery (@kateconger) May 18, 2020

Uber Eats is bigger than the rides biz now https://t.co/o7VuMVITuF

— kate conger (@kateconger) August 6, 2020

I wanted to know what Uber and Lyft would do if forced to comply with AB 5. Here’s what I learned: https://t.co/dzkxFMrrtS

— kate conger (@kateconger) August 18, 2020

christ, what assholes

In a cruel and petulant move, Uber just announced they are shutting down service in California on Thursday. Faced with a mandate to treat their workers fairly, they opted instead to leave them unemployed — in the middle of a pandemic and a recession. pic.twitter.com/SuTvCOUDWT

— Mike Bonin (@mikebonin) August 19, 2020

Haven't been in a rideshare since the beginning of March and can't imagine when I'll next be in one (that said, we have a car and I also can't imagine when I'll next travel so the situations where I'd actually be inclined to use one of these services are not really coming up. This WSJ article (the few sentences of it before paywall) says Uber ridership is a quarter of what it was this time last year.