PMs change and lol we're all gonna die (but brexit will never end)

fwiw

Firstly, Kantar don't include the Brexit party in their main prompt (nor the Green party) - people have to click through to a second screen to see them. That presumably depresses Brexit party support

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) August 21, 2019

This is the same as YouGov found when we looked at the same issue (though we deal with it differently) https://t.co/5x1hvVG69E

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) August 21, 2019

Without that change, Kantar would have been showing Con 40%, Lab 32%.

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) August 21, 2019

whoops. first tweet in that last post should have been

Secondly (and more interestingly), Kantar have changed their past vote weights to account for false recall. They have found that people who voted Labour in 2017 are less likely to now report voting Labour, so have adjusted their targets to account for this.

— Anthony Wells (@anthonyjwells) August 21, 2019

never rated the lads down at kantar media

oops just noticed they are a BPC recognised pollster as well.

kantar tns sounds like a Welsh football club.

the real conspicuous bit of dodgy polling from the Kantar one is that they have Tig/ChUK on 1% tbh

Johnson's proposed solution to the backstop issue is apparently for...Ireland to stop following EU rules and start following the UK's - while still remaining in the Common Market.

I feel like there may be some holes here.

― ShariVari, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 09:31 (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

it succeeds on one overarching point- "it will be the irish choosing to make this hard on themselves"

What's behind the HS2 review announcement? Farage want's it scrapped so I feel it must probably be good, otoh it's a fuck of a lot of money to spend to get to Crewe a bit quicker, otoh I was looking forward to Curzon Station rising from the dead, otoh what about all the trees they're cutting down (have already cut down, I believe in some cases...)?

Shoring up Tory seats in the chilterns.

I think the economic benefits of fast as fuck trains will be minimal, but at least you'll be able to fly past all these barren dead places with murderous hordes of barbarians hunting for human flesh.

I think for lots of Tories it’s a byword for government infrastructure spending?

It's spending that spoils their view

Btw this is everything:

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/aug/21/eu-to-blame-football-new-handball-rule-ian-holloway

The benefit is not necessarily in the speed but in the capacity, the north south rail lines are pretty much full. Once your building a new line you might as well build a fast one even though the the distances to Manchester and Birmingham aren’t far enough to get more than marginal benefit out of high speed.

The problem the Tories have is that it runs through their heartland and offer no benefit to the people living there.

Holloway sucks even more shit than Warnock and Souness combined, there won't be a big enough pit for all the enemies of the people from the football world.

This unstable combination of whingeing victimhood twinned with pompous self-regard

The short version of that is that Ireland won't be quite as fucked by No Deal as the UK thinks it will be.

you need g-search the title of the FT piece to read it - they are usually link-walled.

I know, but I don't get the sense that for anybody here this place accounts for the majority of discussion they have about this

*Raises hand*

I mean, I have wider sources of information for sure, but I don't engage in those places because generally people are saying the same things that I feel but put better (see: this sentence).

If I engage (read: squabble) more here it's because the idea that those that are pro-EU are implacably opposed to the "social ideal that puts the welfare of most people ahead of the wealth hoarding ability of a tiny elite of the super-rich" is just completely alien to anything I experience elsewhere.

having an outlet to clown on the latest Jess Phillips/Stephen Kinnock/Change UK bullshit also a bonus.

This should be on the NHS.

In 1953, when Winston Churchill was prime minister for the last time, 91 per cent of Irish exports went to the UK. Today, that figure is 11 per cent and falling. Far from being the poor, dependent outpost relying on British largesse — as depicted by Brexiters — the Republic of Ireland is an outward-looking, dynamic, trading entrepot. Today, Irish firms in the UK employ more people than UK firms in Ireland.

suck it you deluded fucks!

Look along with a moratorium on MLC “writing” can we please please agree to stop writing about people itt as somehow opposed to the EU when they merely have views on how shit the Remain campaign is, how the EU is bad for letting refugees drown en masse, and how EU post-crash austerity was damaging to loads of EU citizens? Thanks.

It's not the place that accounts for the majority of my discussion, but it's the majority of my discussion with people I (somewhat) agree with.

Btw this was a good piece on HS2: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hs2-logistics-financial-benefit-controversy-a8937936.html

If I engage (read: squabble) more here it's because the idea that those that are pro-EU are implacably opposed to the "social ideal that puts the welfare of most people ahead of the wealth hoarding ability of a tiny elite of the super-rich" is just completely alien to anything I experience elsewhere.

Hear, hear. Not to mention the notion that Brussels is hegemonic enough to have a forcefully effective bearing on the neo-fascist and/or aggressively neo-liberal policies pursued by certain member states is… oddly optimistic? Germany is not Italy is not Hungary is not Spain is not Ireland is not…

Btw, this place does account for 99% of my exchanges about British politics. I haven't been in the UK for very long and am not close enough to the rare acquaintances I've made irl to shoot the shit on a regular basis.

Gyac OTM, it's amazing how people seem still to be of that opinion despite the fact that these threads have had both 'Brexit' and 'we're all gonna die' in the title for like a year.

Ah now come on, there's definitely a caricature of the pro-EU, FBPE, EU-flag facepaint thrown around here a lot. Which apart from the politics projected on to them, doesn't seem to ever reflect the chance that they are non-UK Europeans trapped in this hellscape.

you see it all the time in the media too where people (remainders) who think we should probably respect the result of referenda are caricatured as brexiteers or “pro” brexit

remainers*

in other news I have just heard “if there’s an NDB, it will all be ireland’s fault” in the wild

The short version of that is that Ireland won't be quite as fucked by No Deal as the UK thinks it will be.

― Matt DC, Wednesday, 21 August 2019 12:20 (forty-six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i mean over here anyone i see drumming for panic for anything except the border/GFA i start looking for their angle (y2k style)

we'll be fine

Ah now come on, there's definitely a caricature of the pro-EU, FBPE, EU-flag facepaint thrown around here a lot. and membership of the EU are not the same thing

The former are middling at wanting to score a goal but poor at scoring a goal

(middling because too much of it is identity politics and its counter-productive)

No one believes anyone here is one of those caricatures, we don't need to go all Not All Remainers here.

I'm sure Altidore wanted to score but who would want him in their team

Which apart from the politics projected on to them, doesn't seem to ever reflect the chance that they are non-UK Europeans trapped in this hellscape.

Poor Andrew and Pom they are not getting a fair hearing on this thread. So unfair.

Has it ever occurred to you... that you might be a bit of a bully?

For comrade alphabet to be a bully, he would first have to be generally taken seriously.

Is that a requirement for a bully? I see, interesting..

I am against HS2.

As has often been said by many, money could be spent on better transport on many existing lines across Britain. Add buses to that if you like.

HS2 will improve transport on existing lines, in that you won't have fast services and stopping services continually getting in each other's way, plus vastly improved capacity.

I'm fine with anything that dumps a tonne of money into transport infrastructure, but that kind of investment makes much more sense without shareholders to pay

Sorry for obvious point

Hold your breath for my riveting observations about how low investment shrinks economies and other Keynes 101 favourites

Sat on a clunky pacer train with a leaking septic tank, sputtering along between Morley and Batley really feeds one's visionary neo-vorticist inclinations. Nah.... Fuck ya HS2!

It's not like hs2 qualifies as a vanity project like a bridge nobody can use or a sixth airport for London.

Also, the UK needs more and better trail links. I realise this needs a much more nuanced cost benefit analysis but has anybody every been on the M25

Where it passes through the Tory shires I'd advocate breaking the budget to route it as to piss off as many rich nimbys as possible.

Add slurry spreaders as a sweetener for the farmers!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.independent.ie/business/brexit/phil-hogan-launches-scathing-attack-on-boris-johnson-unelected-pm-gambling-with-the-peace-process-38422925.html

Irish politicians have been so polite for so long about England that these headlines feel weird. It was only a couple of years ago that dim aunties were feeling smug about how civilized everyone was about the queen coming.